August 2, 2021 6:03pm

A tepid outcome of continued low volume and percentage (%) moves; maybe not today but, the question is which earnings will light-up the sector or hamper share pricing growth

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 2 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers!

 

The Dow closed DOWN -97.31 points (-0.28%); the S&P closed DOWN -8.10 points (-0.18%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +8.39 points (+0.06%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes gave up early gains and churned down (Dow and S&P) while the Nasdaq floundered near the flat line on Monday.

Treasury yields and oil prices dipped, signaling that some investors may be concerned about economic growth even as earnings results show strength.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell to roughly 1.17%, putting it near its recent lows from mid-July. Yields move inverse to prices. The final July reading for the IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing manager’s index came in at 63.4 on Monday, up from the 63.1 preliminary reading and June’s result of 62.1. However, a similar metric from the Instituted for Supply Management dipped slightly in July. <CNBC>

 

Data Docket: Although U.S. manufacturing grew in July, its pace slowed for a second straight month as spending rotated back to services from goods, and shortages of raw materials persisted.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “ready or not, earnings could cause more declines. Eleven (11) earnings’ releases this week, I am still in the non-sustainable pricing camp” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12029

 

Key Metrics”

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.05% (AXGN) to +5.30% (VYGR) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.21% (QURE) to -4.91% (ATHX);

 

Q2/21 Earnings and dates of releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Verastem (VSTM)

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Monday positive at 27/6, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 24/10 and 1 acquired, closing positive 21/13 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.65 with 571 shares traded after Friday closed flat with 170 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 1 share traded, Wednesday’s flat with 350 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.00 with 43 shares traded and last Monday’s downside of -$0.06 to $1.65 with 406 shares traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without any “push/promote”;
  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway”?

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.05); BUY: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.32), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.19) Pluristem (PSTI +$0.05) and 2 MISS < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$5.28), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.32),   

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 10 of the 21 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, ReNeuron (RENE.L), Regenxbio (RGNX), Biostage (BSTG) to name 5 of the 13 declining of the 35 covered

 

Monday’s (10 of 23) incliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.28 after Friday’s -$3.24
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.76 after Friday’s -$0.49
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.32 after Friday’s+$2.02
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.01 after Friday’s -$0.52);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.69 after Friday’s -$0.33);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.49 after Friday’s +$0.46
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.42 after Friday’s -$0.60
  • Bluebird bio (BLUE +0.19 after Friday’s -$0.25);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.17);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.15 after Friday’s -$0.83

Monday’s (13 of 13) decliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$5.28 after Friday’s +$4.83
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.98 after Friday’s -$2.89);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$0.50);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.36);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.36 after Friday’s -$0.40)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.32);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.13 after Friday’s +$0.03);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.05
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.06 after Friday’s +$0.16);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.06);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.05 after Friday’s flat);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.02 after Friday’s +$0.01);
  • Verastem VSTM -$0.02);

Closing – 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.04% and XBI closed up +0.42%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +1.22 points or +6.69% at 19.46

Upside volume:

  • Monday: 2 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Monday: 1 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.05% (AXGN) to +5.30% (VYGR) while the x13-downside ranges from -0.21% (QURE) to -4.91% (ATHX);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Monday (8/2) closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.

There are still some not-so-distant jitters and negativity whispers about next week’s earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways” … as quarterly earnings come out

We have seen the second release of earnings (QURE and CRSP); but, will the remainder of Q2 earnings “suck pond water”?

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.