August 4, 2021 5:15pm

Too many elephants in the room are market dynamics, earnings, volume, breadth and support

Pre-open indications: 1 HIT

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers! 

The Dow closed DOWN -323.73 points (-0.92%); the S&P closed DOWN -20.49 points (-0.46%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +19.24 points (+0.13%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Wednesday after a private sector jobs report came in lower than expected.

The Nasdaq scratched out a modest gain Wednesday in a down session in the cell and gene therapy sector taking some modest losses.

Investors considered a much weaker-than-expected report on private payroll growth last month.

 

Data Docket: The ADP private payroll survey showed a gain of 330,000 jobs for July, well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department’s official jobs report, which typically has more impact with investors, will be released on Friday.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “watch your “six” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12033

 

Key Metrics”

  • Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 3 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.20% (QURE) to +19.97% (GBT) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.26% (SAGE) to -5.30% (SLDB);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
  • uniQure NV (QURE);

Net losses:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
  • Verastem (VSTM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
  • Vericel VCEL) – today;
  • AxoGen (AXGN) - today

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Wednesday opened positive at 18/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 13/20, 1 flat and 12 acquired, closing negative 12/19, 3 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded after Tuesday closed flat with 616 shares traded, Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.65 with 571 shares traded, Friday closed flat with 170 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 1 share traded and last Wednesday’s flat with 350 shares traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without any “push/promote”;
  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway”?

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 HIT <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00);

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT) - again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), to name 5 of the 12 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Vericel (VCEL), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), MiMedx (MSXG), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 19 declining of the 35 covered

 

Wednesday’s (12 of 12) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$8.15 after Tuesday’s +$2.22 and Monday -$5.28);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$5.37 after Tuesday’s -$0.86 and Monday’s +$0.42);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.63 after Tuesday’s +$0.85 and Monday -$0.98);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$3.94 after Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday -$0.32);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.19 after Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$1.32);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.48 after Tuesday’s -$1.83 and Monday’s +$2.28);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.68 after Tuesday’s +$2.93 and Monday +$1.01);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.08);
  • Verastem VSTM +$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.33 and Monday’s -$0.02);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.06 after Tuesday’s +$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.06);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.03 after Tuesday’s +$0.30);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$0.33);

Wednesday’s (10 of 19) decliners:

  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.54 after Tuesday’s -$1,37 and Monday’s +$0.15);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.50 after Tuesday’s -$1.00);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.66 after Tuesday’s +$0.35 and Monday’s -$0.06);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.57);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.55 after Tuesday’s -$0.53);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.09 and Monday’s -$0.36);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.29);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.29);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.02 after Monday’s -$0.02);
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.12);

Closing – 3 – Athersys (ATHX), Biostage (BSTG), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +1.62% and XBI closed down -0.02%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down – 0.07 points or -0.39% at 17.97

Upside volume:

  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.20% (QURE) to +19.97% (GBT) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.26% (SAGE) to -5.30% (SLDB);

August, the second month of Q3/21:

  • Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 19 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Although the cell and gene therapy sector is moving forward a little cautiously …

Sector Q2 earnings have been weak as usual, but investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

The music played on as Wednesday felt the heat while the limbo dance was again evident as the sector danced to as low as it could bend.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There are still some not-so-distant jitters and negativity whispers about coming earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways” … as quarterly earnings come out

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.