August 5, 2021 5:55pm

Upside percentage moves pushed the value bar although most earnings estimates fell short of expectations while the Advance/Decline (A/D) line bolted the corral

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

 

The Dow closed UP +271.58 points (+0.78%); the S&P closed UP +26.44 points (+0.60%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +114.58 points (+0.78%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes bounced on Thursday ahead of a key labor market report.

The moves in the stocks came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday, in which the Dow dropped more than 300 points.

The jobs report will be a big event for the week as it has a lot of direct implications for what the Fed will do re tapering and its timing and the pace of restriction.

For the week so far, the Dow has gained nearly 0.4%, while the S&P 500 has climbed close to 0.8% while the Nasdaq rose 1.5%.

 

Data Docket: Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 385,000 on Thursday, in-line with expectations. The claims data was the last reading before the key July jobs report, which will be released on Friday morning. There is a wide range of estimates from economists about what the report will show, and some metrics for employment gains have disappointed despite a high level of reported job openings. <CNBC>

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “: the hall of mirrors continues with earnings the focus” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12035  

 

Key Metrics”

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 1-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.31% (AXGN) to +18.37% (EDIT) while the 1-downside -0.81% (MESO);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
  • uniQure NV (QURE);

Net losses:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
  • Verastem (VSTM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
  • Vericel VCEL);
  • AxoGen (AXGN);
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) - today;
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) – today;
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) – today;
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) - today

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened positive at 26/6, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 29/3, 2 flats and 12 acquired, closing positive 29/1, 4 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Thursday closed yet again flat with 5 shares traded after Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded after Tuesday closed flat with 616 shares traded, Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.65 with 571 shares traded, Friday closed flat with 170 shares traded and last Thursday closed flat with 1 share traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without any “push/promote”;
  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway”?

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$8.88), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$8.46), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.57); Sold into Strength: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.56), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$10.46)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – another again, Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again, Editas Medicine (EDIT) – another again, to name 5 of the 29 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Mesoblast (MESO), to name 1 of the 1 declining of the 35 covered

 

Thursday’s (10 of 29) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$17.80 after Wednesday’s +$8.15, Tuesday’s +$2.22 and Monday -$5.28);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$9.66 after Wednesday’s +$4.63, Tuesday’s +$0.85 and Monday -$0.98);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$8.89 after Wednesday’s +$2.48, Tuesday’s -$1.83 and Monday’s +$2.28);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$8.21 after Wednesday’s +$3.19, Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$1.32);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$7.86 after Wednesday’s +$3.94, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday -$0.32);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.51 after Wednesday’s +$1.68 after Tuesday’s +$2.93 and Monday +$1.01);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.51 after Wednesday’s -$2.54, Tuesday’s -$1,37 and Monday’s +$0.15);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.35);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.29);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.22 after Wednesday’s +$0.06, Tuesday’s +$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.06);

Thursday’s (1 of 1) decliners:

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.03 and Tuesday’s +$0.30);

Closing – 4 –Biostage (BSTG), Pluristem (PSTI), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.57% and XBI closed up +3.80%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.69 points or -3.84% at 17.28

Upside volume:

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 3-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.31% (AXGN) to +18.37% (EDIT) while the 1-downside -0.81% (MESO);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Thursday closed positive with 29 advancers, 1 decliner, 4 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: A SOLID and SUBSTANTIAL rally after the oversold got “recognized” – one of my favorite sayings … with a sudden directional change.

Sector Q2 earnings have been weak as usual, but investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHAT am I going to do on Friday is SELL many into STRENGTH … especially the gene editors!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.