August 6, 2021 6:11pm

The cell and gene therapy sector struggled for direction, all week long as earnings (see list) shaped the week

Pre-open indications: 9 HITs and 4 MISS

Week in review … review at the dive and ascend of my 35 covered sector companies

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed UP +144.26 points (+0.41%); the S&P closed UP +7.42 points (+0.17%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -59.35 points (-0.40%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P hit new records as the dipped while the cell and gene therapy sector barely eked-out a gain for the session and week.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.7% for its second positive week in three, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% and is now up 18.1% for the year while the Nasdaq rose 1.1%.

Stocks tied to the economic recovery rose after a stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday, sending two key market averages to all-time highs. <CNBC>

 

Data Docket: Friday’s jobs report showed that the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs in July, according to the Labor Department. Economists expected the economy to have added 845,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, below the estimate of 5.7%.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “safety is protecting from or not exposed to danger or risk. it’s risky going forward and it could be a long fall down for some sector equities; two (2) examples, since Monday the IBB has advanced +5.37% and the XBI +4.92% with the Nasdaq in its fourth straight positive session” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12037

 

Key Metrics”

  • Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 18-upside having higher than the 3-month average 1volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (MDXG) to +9% (RENE.L) while the 16-downside -0.08% (BLFS) to -5.73% (AXGN);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
  • uniQure NV (QURE);

Net losses:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
  • Verastem (VSTM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
  • Vericel VCEL);
  • AxoGen (AXGN);
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI);
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened negative at 11/19, 4 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 20/13, 1 flat and 12 acquired, closing barely positive 18/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 26/6, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 29/3, 2 flats and 12 acquired, closing positive 29/1, 4 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 18/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 13/20, 1 flat and 12 acquired, closing negative 12/19, 3 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 4/28 and 12 acquired, closing negative 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday positive at 27/6, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 24/10 and 1 acquired, closing positive 21/13 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday closed up +$0.05 again with 709 shares traded after Thursday closed flat with 5 shares traded, Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 616 shares traded, Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.65 with 571 shares traded and last Friday closed flat with 170 shares traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is a typical example;
  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?

 

Pre-open Indications: 9 HITs <Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.15), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.33), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.12), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.84), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.20), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.25), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.81), Pluristem (PSTI +$0.06), Athersys (ATHX +$0.06)> 4 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.05), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.08), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.57), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.02), >

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – another again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) – another again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – and another again, Editas Medicine (EDIT) – and another again, to name 5 of the 18 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx (RARE), Vericel (VCEL), AxoGen (AXGN), Regenxbio (RGNX) to name 5 of the 16 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (10 of 18) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$9.00);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.25 after Thursday’s +$8.21, Wednesday’s +$3.19, Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$1.32);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.15 after Thursday’s +$17.80, Wednesday’s +$8.15, Tuesday’s +$2.22 and Monday -$5.28);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.33 after Thursday’s +$9.66, Wednesday’s +$4.63, Tuesday’s +$0.85 and Monday -$0.98);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.08 after Thursday’s +$7.86, Wednesday’s +$3.94, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday -$0.32);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.57);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.20);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.15);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.14);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.13);

Friday’s (10 of 16) decliners:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.12 after Thursday’s +$1.35);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.81 after Thursday’s +$4.51, Wednesday’s +$1.68 after Tuesday’s +$2.93 and Monday +$1.01);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.40 after Thursday’s +$1.51, Wednesday’s -$2.54, Tuesday’s -$1,37 and Monday’s +$0.15);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.11);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.84);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.84);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.59 after Thursday’s +$1.22, Wednesday’s +$0.06, Tuesday’s +$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.06);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.58 after Thursday’s +$1.29);
  • Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO -$0.21);
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.17);

Closing –1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -1.56% and XBI closed down -1.74%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.57% and XBI closed up +3.80%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +1.62% and XBI closed down -0.02%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +2.14% and XBI closed up +0.72%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.04% and XBI closed up +0.42%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.13 points or -6.54% at 16.15
  • Thursday was down -0.69 points or -3.84% at 17.28
  • Wednesday was down – 0.07points or -0.39% at 17.97
  • Tuesday was down -1.42 points or -7.30% at 18.04
  • Monday was up +1.22 points or +6.69% at 19.46

Upside volume:

  • Friday:  7 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 1 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 3-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (MDXG) to +9% (RENE.L) while the 16-downside -0.08% (BLFS) to -5.73% (AXGN);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.31% (AXGN) to +18.37% (EDIT) while the 1-downside -0.81% (MESO);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.20% (QURE) to +19.97% (GBT) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.26% (SAGE) to -5.30% (SLDB);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.28% (RGNX) to +4.22% (MESO) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.15% (CLLS) to -10.28% (VSTM);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.05% (AXGN) to +5.30% (VYGR) while the x13-downside ranges from -0.21% (QURE) to -4.91% (ATHX);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Friday closed positive with 18 advancers, 16 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 29 advancers, 1 decliner, 4 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 19 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 233 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/2) closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Be thankful … the sector closed barely up – an event.

The overbought (in my eyes) also got “recognized” – one of my alternatives (versus favorite) sayings … with it seems to always include sudden directional change.

Sector Q2 earnings have been weak as usual, but investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHAT am I going to do on Friday is SELL many into STRENGTH … especially the gene editors!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.