RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: as good as gets in these markets as sentiment wains

August 9, 2021 5:15pm

News: BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.59) to acquire Sexton Biotechnologies, a provider of novel manufacturing solutions for the cell and gene therapy (CGT) industry in a deal worth a total value of $30 million. bluebird bio (BLUE -$6.87) announced several setbacks to its business as part of its Q2 earnings as it plans to wind down its gene therapy operations in Europe, citing "European payers." Biostage (BSTG -$0.05): with 1060 shares traded - Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote”. <read more>

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 1 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed DOWN -106.66 points (-0.30%); the S&P closed DOWN -4.17 points (-0.09%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +24.42 points (+0.16%)

Henry’omics:

Markets retreated as the Nasdaq seemed diminished …. Is Covid the ONLY factor weighing on the financial market?

The S&P 500 dipped on Monday, as fuel demand worries during a resurgent pandemic sent energy stocks lower but rising U.S. Treasury yields lifted financial stocks, keeping Wall Street’s benchmark index near record levels. <Reuters>

Data Docket: Investors are awaiting key inflation data scheduled for release this week. The consumer price index and the producer price index are scheduled to come out Wednesday and Thursday,

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) keep coming. After a sloppy week and Friday’s my covered sector’s end barely positive; what bodes this week – more of same?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12039

Key Metrics”

• Sector volume was LOW with 8 of the 18-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Monday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (FATE) to +6.04% (VYGR) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.53% (AGTC) to -27.45% (BLUE);

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
• uniQure NV (QURE);

Net losses:

• Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
• Verastem (VSTM)
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
• MiMedx (MDXG)
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
• Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
• Vericel VCEL);
• AxoGen (AXGN);
• Fate therapeutics (FATE);
• Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI);
• Intellia therapeutics (NTLA);
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS);
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS);
• bluebird bio (BLUE) – today;
• Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) – today;
• Athersys (ATHX) – today;
• Regenxbio (RGNX) – today;
• Precigen (PGEN) – today;

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

• Monday neutral at 16/16, 2 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing barely positive 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
• Friday opened negative at 11/19, 4 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 20/13, 1 flat and 12 acquired, closing barely positive 18/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.60 with 1060 shares traded after Friday closed up +$0.05 again with 709 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 5 shares traded, Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 616 shares traded and last Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.65 with 571 shares traded.

Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is a typical example;

• They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.05); SELL into Strength: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.47), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.08), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$7.03); BUY: Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.51)> 1 MISS <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.27)>

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L) - again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Editas Medicine (EDIT) – again, Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 18 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), bluebird bio (BLUE), uniQure NV (QURE) - again, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), MiMedx (MDXG) to name 5 of the 15 declining of the 35 covered

Monday’s (10 of 18) incliners:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L +$6.00 after Friday’s +$9.00);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.02 after Friday’s +$1.33
• Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.47 after Friday’s +$1.08
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.27 after Friday’s -$2.12
• Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.49 after Friday’s -$1.81
• Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.19 after Friday’s -$0.84);
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.08 after Friday’s +$3.25
• BioLife Solutions +$0.59);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.51);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.31);

Monday’s (10 of 15) decliners:

• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$7.03 after Friday’s +$2.15);
• bluebird bio (BLUE -$6.87 after Friday’s -$0.84);
• uniQure NV (QURE -$0.91 after Friday’s -$0.59);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.20);
• MiMedx (MDXG -$0.40);
• AxoGen (AXGN -$0.28 after Friday’s -$1.11);
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.24 after Friday’s -$0.58);
• Mesoblast (MESO -$0.111 after Friday’s -$0.40);
• Brainstorm cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.09);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.09 after Friday’s +0.14);

Closing flat: 1- Chinook Pharmaceuticals (KDNY) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Monday, the IBB closed up +2.38% and XBI closed up +0.19%
• Friday, the IBB closed down -1.56% and XBI closed down -1.74%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Monday was up +0.57 points or +3.53% at 16.72
• Friday was down -1.13 points or -6.54% at 16.15

Upside volume:

• Monday: 8 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Friday:  7 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

• Monday: 1 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Friday: 1 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

• Monday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (FATE) to +6.04% (VYGR) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.53% (AGTC) to -27.45% (BLUE);
• Friday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (MDXG) to +9% (RENE.L) while the 16-downside -0.08% (BLFS) to -5.73% (AXGN);

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Monday (8/9) closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: Be thankful … the sector closed barely up – another safing grace or event.

Sector Q2 earnings have been weak as usual, but investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply; as bluebird bio (BLUE) got hammered as EU payments were not accepted and the company split in two (2).

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.