RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: earnings’ season is not for the faint-of-heart sector investor

August 10, 2021 5:05pm

What’s missing, the positivity within the sector!

News: Athersys’ (ATHX +$0.08) partner HEALIOS K.K. has completed enrollment in its TREASURE study in Japan, evaluating MultiStem® (invimestrocel) cell therapy treatment in patients who have suffered an ischemic stroke.

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 1 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed UP +162.82 points (+0.46%); the S&P closed UP +4.40 points (+0.10%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -72.09 points (-0.49%)

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P 500 rose to new records, after the Senate’s passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure package boosted stocks tied to economic growth with the Nasdaq (-0.05%) being swept aside.

• The Senate’s infrastructure plan, which includes $550 billion in new spending on transportation and broadband, is expected to help give the economy a boost as peak growth slows following the reopening from the pandemic. <CNBC>

Data Docket: Investors are awaiting key inflation data scheduled for release this week. The consumer price index and the producer price index are scheduled to come out Wednesday and Thursday,

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “says who and what, facts and supporting numbers need to validate opinion. Very lean pickings in Monday’s aftermarket – a forewarning?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12041

Key Metrics”

• Sector volume INCREASED with 6 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 4 of 21-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.03% (QURE) to +10.35% (BLUE) while the 21-downside -0.33% (MDXG) to -11.91% (AXGN);

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
• uniQure NV (QURE);

Net losses:

• Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
• Verastem (VSTM)
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
• MiMedx (MDXG)
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
• Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
• Vericel VCEL);
• AxoGen (AXGN);
• Fate therapeutics (FATE);
• Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI);
• Intellia therapeutics (NTLA);
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS);
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS);
• bluebird bio (BLUE);
• Voyager therapeutics (VYGR);
• Athersys (ATHX);
• Regenxbio (RGNX);
• Precigen (PGEN);

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

• Tuesday opened negative at 15/17, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed further negative at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
• Monday neutral at 16/16, 2 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing barely positive 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Tuesday closed flat with 4 shares traded following Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.60 with 1060 shares traded after Friday closed up +$0.05 again with 709 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 5 shares traded, Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded and last Tuesday closed flat with 616 shares traded.

Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is a typical example;

• They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); SELL into Strength: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$3.03), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.66), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.42), Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.17)> 1 MISS <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.88)>

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – another again, Editas Medicine (EDIT) – another again, bluebird bio (BLUE), Ultragenyx (RARE) – again, Precigen (PGEN) to name 5 of the 12 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) - again, to name 5 of the 21 declining of the 35 covered

Tuesday’s (10 of 12) incliners:

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7.48 after Monday’s +$5.02);
• Editas Medicine (EDIT +$3.03 after Monday’s +$2.47);
• bluebird bio (BLUE+$1.88 after Monday’s -$6.87);
• Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.84 after Monday’s +$1.49);
• Precigen (PGEN +$0.44);
• Mesoblast (MESO +$0.31 after Monday’s -$0.11);
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.29 after Monday’s -$0.24);
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.22);
• Athersys (ATHX +$0.07);
• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.03);

Tuesday’s (10 of 21) decliners:

• Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$5.04 after Monday’s +$0.31);
• ReNeuron (RENE.L -$4.75 after Monday’s +$6.00);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.42 after Monday’s -$7.03);
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.66 after Monday’s +$1.08);
• Vericel (VCEL -$2.66);
• AxoGen (AXGN -$2.14 after Monday’s -$0.28);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.05 after Monday’s -$0.45);
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.17 after Monday’s +$1.19);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.88 after Monday’s +$2.27);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.75 after Monday’s +$0.51);

Closing –1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.81% and XBI closed down -0.82%
• Monday, the IBB closed up +2.38% and XBI closed up +0.19%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Tuesday was up +0.07 points or +0.42% at 16.79
• Monday was up +0.57 points or +3.53% at 16.72

Upside volume:

• Tuesday:  6 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 8 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

• Tuesday: 4 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 1 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.03% (QURE) to +10.35% (BLUE) while the 21-downside -0.33% (MDXG) to -11.91% (AXGN);
• Monday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (FATE) to +6.04% (VYGR) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.53% (AGTC) to -27.45% (BLUE);

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Tuesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 21 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/9) closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: after Monday's closing barely up, today repeats the alternating cycle - grossly down.

Sector Q2 earnings have been weak as usual, but investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply; as bluebird bio (BLUE) got hammered as EU payments were not accepted and the company split in two (2).

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.