August 11, 2021 5:13pm

What has not changed, sentiment resides in the toilet

Pre-open indications: 7 HITs and 1 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

 

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors

The Dow closed UP +220.30 points (+0.62%); the S&P closed UP +10.95 points (+0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 22.95 points (-0.16%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose while the Nasdaq retreated on Wednesday after inflation jumped, but not by quite as much as investors feared when stripping out volatile food and energy prices.

This CPI number is going to put the Fed in a little bit of a quandary because they've gone out with all this rhetoric about tapering, about tightening rates, about being defensive and the inflation numbers aren't quite where they should be, but they’re certainly not showing that this thing is out of control." <Reuters>

 

Data Docket: July’s Consumer Price Index showed prices jumped 5.4% since last year, compared to expectations of 5.3%, according to economists surveyed. The government said CPI increased 0.5% in July on month-to-month basis.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “how do you know, what will happen today if you don’t have a handle on yesterday” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12043

 

Key Metrics”

  • Sector volume INCREASED with 4 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 4 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.10% (SGMO) to +5.40% (EDIT) while the 16-downside -0.66% (MESO) to -7.76% (CLLS);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
  • uniQure NV (QURE);

Net losses:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
  • Verastem (VSTM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
  • Vericel VCEL);
  • AxoGen (AXGN);
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI);
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR);
  • Athersys (ATHX);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX);
  • Precigen (PGEN);

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Wednesday opened negative at 10/21, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed further negative at the mid-day to 9/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 13/16, 5 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 4 shares traded following Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.60 with 1060 shares traded, Friday closed up +$0.05 again with 709 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 5 shares traded as last Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded.

Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is yet another typical example;

  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); SELL into Strength: Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.67), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.23), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +2.29), bluebird (BLUE -$0.87); BUY:  Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.68)> 0 MISS

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) – yet, another again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx (RARE) – another again, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Regenxbio (RGNX) to name 5 of the 13 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), ReNeuron (RENE.L) - again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – post acquisition and pre-earnings, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again, Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 16 declining of the 35 covered

 

Wednesday’s (10 of 13) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.84 after Tuesday’s -$4.42 and Monday’s -$7.03);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$3.30 after Tuesday’s +$3.03 and Monday’s +$2.47);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.91 after Tuesday’s +$1.84 and Monday’s +$1.49);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.85 after Tuesday’s -$5.04 and Monday’s +$0.31);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE =$0.71 after Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$2.27);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.17 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s +$1.19);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.12);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.11);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.10 after Tuesday’s +$0.44);
  • Athersys (ATHX +$0.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.07);

Wednesday’s (10 of 16) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4,99 after Tuesday’s +$7.48 and Monday’s +$5.02);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$4.25 after Tuesday’s -$4.75 and Monday’s +$6.00);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.51);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.47 after Tuesday’s -$2.66 and Monday’s +$1.08);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.05 after Monday’s -$0.45);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s +$0.51);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.98 after Tuesday’s +$1.88 and Monday’s -$6.87);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.64 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.24);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.36 after Tuesday’s -$2.66);
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.14);

Closing – 5 – Biostage (BSTG), Pluristem (PSTI), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -2.99% and XBI closed down -0.65%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.73. points or -4.35% at 16.06

Upside volume:

  • Wednesday:  4 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.10% (SGMO) to +5.40% (EDIT) while the 16-downside -0.66% (MESO) to -7.76% (CLLS);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Wednesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 16 decliners, 5 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: after closing barely up, today repeats the alternating cycle – yet, again grossly down.

Sector Q2 earnings have been weak as usual, but investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.