August 19, 2021 5:17pm

As the cell and gene therapy sector got whipped again in anticipation of Friday’s option expiration

Pre-open indications: 0 MISS and 8 HITs

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

How many times can I be right ... most of the time.

The Dow closed DOWN -66.57 points (-0.19%); the S&P closed UP +5.53 points (+0.13%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +15.87 points (+0.11%)

 

Henry’omics:

The S&P 500 and the Dow saw a second-straight day of losses Wednesday …

Indexes closed mixes as the Dow was down (-0.19%), the S&P was up (+0.13%) and the Nasdaq closed positive (+0.11%).

U.S. weekly jobless claims hit 17-month low.

Investors had better prepare for the Fed’s expected reduction of the rate of its monthly bond purchases.

There is a gloom or cloud over this market

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “re-open: which way forward, instinct says cautiously low crawl. A “witching: option expiration on Friday’ … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12057

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “Facts from filed 10-Q” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12055

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542  … to date:

  • Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened negative at 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 4/28, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 5 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.57% (VCEL) to +4.36% (BLFS) while the 28-downside -0.27% (ALNY) to -8.52% (RGNX);

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Thursday closed flat at with 50 shares traded after Wednesday closed down -$0.10 with 739 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 1 share traded, Monday closed down -$0.22 to $1.38 with 135 shares traded, Friday closed flat again with 10 shares traded and last Thursday closed flat with 50 shares traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is just another typical example;
  • Read the recently issues 10-Q and 8-K which will magnify the “incompetence” of the current management team, the BOD and their “advisors” … The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Facts from filed 10-Q … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/1205
  • WHO are BSTG’s legal advisors that let them MISS a terminal death filing?

 

Pre-open Indications: 8 HITs <Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); SELL: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.65), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.52), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$5.42), Global Blood therapeutics (GBT -$0.82), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$7.73), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.06), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$4.25)> 0 MISS

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Vericel (VCEL), AxoGen (AXGN), MiMedx (MDXG), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) – again to name 4 of the 4 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ultragenyx (RARE) - again, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Regenxbio (RGNX) to name 5 of the 28 declining of the 35 covered

 

Thursday’s (4 of 4) incliners:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.93);
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.28);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.17);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.14 after Wednesday’s +$0.49 and Tuesday’s -$0.94);

Thursday’s (10 of 28) decliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$8.36 after Wednesday’s -$1.02, Tuesday’s +$0.80 and Monday’s -$2.74);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$5.37 after Wednesday’s +$6.56, Tuesday’s -$3.19 and Monday’s +$0.92);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$4.04 after Wednesday’s -$6.74, Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s -$4.74);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.71 after Wednesday’s +$0.34 and Tuesday’s +$0.42);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.53 after Wednesday’s -$1.23, Tuesday’s +$2.00 and Monday’s -$4.21);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.88 after Wednesday’s -$1.12, Tuesday’s +$1.10 and Monday’s -$2.66);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.81 after Wednesday’s -$0.67);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.19 after Wednesday’s -$1.34, Tuesday’s +$0.47 and Monday’s -$0.61);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.73);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.69 after Wednesday’s -$1.29, Tuesday’s +$0.96 and Monday’s -$0.83);

Closing – 2 – Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -2.21% and XBI closed down -2.40%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.10 points or +0.46% at 21.67

Upside volume:

  • Thursday:  0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.57% (VCEL) to +4.36% (BLFS) while the 28-downside -0.27% (ALNY) to -8.52% (RGNX)

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 28 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Another trip and a fall but, a positive note … being oversold sets a BUYING “condition”.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.