August 20, 2021 5:19pm

With low volume, negligible percentage (%) moves and volatility at least to the upside

What I have been saying the oversold would become buys …

Pre-open indications: 0 MISS and 7 HITs

The week in review …

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed UP +225.96 points (+0.65%); the S&P closed UP +35.87 points (+0.81%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +172.88 points (+1.19%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rebounded Friday, but closed the week in red amid fears of the Fed pulling back its stimulus.

All three major stock indexes finished the week lower; the S&P 500 is down 0.6%, the Dow is off 1.1% and the Nasdaq is 0.7% lower.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “back and forth volatility, low volume, small percentage movements characterize the week so far. A “witching: option expiration today” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12059

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “Facts from filed 10-Q” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12055

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542  … to date:

  • Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened positive at 24/9, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 28/5, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 26/5, 3 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 4/28, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 20/9, 1 flat and 1 acquired, then slipped with a negative close of 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, remained negative at the mid-day to 5/26, 3 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive 21/12, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 4/27, 3 flats and 1 acquired, remained negative at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.37% (CRSP) to +6.58% (GBT) while the 5-downside -0.15% (MESO) to -21.74% (FATE);

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday closed down -$0.07 with 570 shares traded after Thursday closed flat at with 50 shares traded, Wednesday closed down -$0.10 with 739 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 1 share traded, Monday closed down -$0.22 to $1.38 with 135 shares traded and last Friday closed flat again with 10 shares traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is just another typical example;
  • Read the recently issues 10-Q and 8-K which will magnify the “incompetence” of the current management team, the BOD and their “advisors” … The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Facts from filed 10-Q … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12055
  • WHO are BSTG’s legal advisors that let them MISS a terminal death legal filing?

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 HITs <Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY: Verastem (VSTM +$0.02), CRISPR Therapeutics (CTSP +$0.43, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.42): SELL into Strength: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.28), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.25); SELL:  Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$18.62)> 0 MISS

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 26 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) - again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Biostage (BSTG), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Mesoblast (MESO) to name 5 of the 5 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (10 of 26) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA$5.25 after Thursday’s -$8.36, Wednesday’s -$1.02, Tuesday’s +$0.80 and Monday’s -$2.74);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT =$2.28 after Thursday’s -$1.88, Wednesday’s -$1.12, Tuesday’s +$1.10 and Monday’s -$2.66);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.24 after Thursday’s -$4.04, Wednesday’s -$6.74, Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s -$4.74);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.72 after Thursday’s -$1.81 and Wednesday’s -$0.67);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.70 after Thursday’s -$0.69, Wednesday’s -$1.29, Tuesday’s +$0.96 and Monday’s -$0.83);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.42);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.79);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.63 after Thursday’s +$0.14, Wednesday’s +$0.49 and Tuesday’s -$0.94);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.63 after Thursday’s -$2.71, Wednesday’s +$0.34 and Tuesday’s +$0.42);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.53);

Friday’s (5 of 5) decliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$18.62 after Thursday’s -$5.37, Wednesday’s +$6.56, Tuesday’s -$3.19 and Monday’s +$0.92);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.79 after Thursday’s +$1.93);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.09);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.07 after Thursday’s flat, Wednesday’s -$0.10, Tuesday’s flat and Monday’s -$0.22);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.01

Closing – 3 – Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI), Athersys (ATHX), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +1.54% and XBI closed up +2.90%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -2.21% and XBI closed down -2.40%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.39% and XBI closed down -1.69%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.89% and XBI closed up +1.57%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.10% and XBI closed down -1.62%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -3.11 points or -14.35% at 18.56
  • Thursday was up +0.10 points or +0.46% at 21.67
  • Wednesday was up +3.36 points or +20.44% at 21.57
  • Tuesday was up +1.79 points or +11.110% at 17.91
  • Monday was up +0.86 points or +5.27% at 16.31

 

Upside volume:

  • Friday:  2 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday:  0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday:  3 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday:  1 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 2 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.37% (CRSP) to +6.58% (GBT) while the 5-downside -0.15% (MESO) to -21.74% (FATE);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.57% (VCEL) to +4.36% (BLFS) while the 28-downside -0.27% (ALNY) to -8.52% (RGNX);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.36% (BLCM) to +7.77% (FATE) while the 24-downside -0.16% (BLFS) to -7.60% (RARE);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.34% (IONS) to +4.05% (ADVM) while the 12-downside -0.83% (CLBS) to -7.56% (KDNY);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.12% (ALNY) to +3.42% (VCEL) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.48% (KDNY) to -13.75% (BSTG);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Friday closed positive with 26 advancers, 5 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 28 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/16) closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Another burst after a trip and a fall but, on a positive note … being oversold set-up a BUYING “condition”.

When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started.

As the week progressed, trading balanced the books; it’s about buying the oversold after a dive on Thursday, Wednesday and Monday.

Q2 reporting season has essentially run its course; although a few remain with my questions of WHY so late …?

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.