August 30, 2021 5:09pm
Why have we dismissed share pricing risk as record highs reign?
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: WHY hasn’t the SEC looked into this share pricing activity – another 25,607 shares traded? Is this another Theranos – faking it to not make it? What’s the end game of the “pumping” buys of stock in a company with NO clinical trial and only three (3) or was it four (4) employees left in a 17,00 sq. foot lab? <Questions to consider – read more>
Pre-open indications: 4 MISS and 3 HITs
My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress with a 360-degree view.
The Dow closed DOWN -55.96 points (-0.16); the S&P closed UP +19.42 points (+0.43%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +136.39 points (+0.90%)
Henry’omics:
Another record close …
Indexes traded up with the Dow +1.5%, the S&P +2.6% and the Nasdaq riding the all-time wave +1.5%.
Monday and Tuesday mark the last two trading days of August; so far, the S&P 500 is up 2.6%, the Dow +1.5 % and the Nasdaq has risen 3.1%.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:
- Monday opened positive at 22/9, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day to 14/18, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Friday opened negative at 14/15, 5 flats and 1 acquired, strayed positive at the mid-day at 31/1, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 30/2, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “last sessions of August, maintaining the status quo. I’d be squeezing-out some profits from the weekly high flyers” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12071
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “Facts from filed 10-Q” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12055
Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:
- Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23
Key Metrics:
- Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 4 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
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Monday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.13% (VCEL) to +24.59% (BSTG) while the 26-downside -0.04% (SAGE) to -5.69% (EDIT);
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Monday 25,607 shares traded (+$0.75 to $3.80) after Friday traded 13,942 (+$0.47 to $3.07), Thursday traded 3,137 shares, Wednesday traded 18,472 shares traded (+$0.16 to $2.21), Tuesday closed up +$0.28 with 10,590 shares trade and Monday’s +$0.68 with 38,354 shares traded following the previous Friday’s -$0.07 with 570 shares traded.
Questions to consider:
- Today is just another fact, how the share trades with the “push/promote” - another typical example,
- WHAT is BSTG’s value proposition, after all the share price pumping – NO clinical trial?
- WHAT is the end game of “pumping” the share price as the float is MINIMAL compared to the ever-OUTSTANDING shares?
- Is a REVERSE in order and a possible SALE of the public listing?
- WHERE is the SEC?
- Does the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] have a term for this – could it be said, it’s an affinity fraud?
- Affinity scams often involve “Ponzi” or pyramid schemes where new investor money is used to pay earlier investors, making it appear as if the investment is successful and legitimate.
Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$6.05), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.02), Vericel (VCEL +$0.07)> 4 MISS < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.75), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.28), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.10), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.73)>
There are clear winners and losers
Jumping with share pricing momentum:
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Ultragenyx (RARE), Biostage (BSTG) – “pumped”, MiMedx (MDXG), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) to name 5 of the 7 inclining of the 35 covered
Hammered in today’s market:
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Editas Medicine (EDIT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) to name 5 of the 26 declining of the 35 covered
Monday’s (7 of 7) incliners:
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.73 after Friday’s -$0.98);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.84);
- Biostage (BSTG +$0.75 after Friday’s +$0.47),
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.48);
- Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.14 after Friday’s -$0.08);
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.07 after Friday’s +$2.98),
- Athersys (ATHX +$0.045);
Monday’s (10 of 26) decliners:
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$6.05 after Friday’s +$5.52);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.73 after Friday’s +$1.66);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.10 after Friday’s +$1.91);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.90 after Friday’s +$1.39);
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.66 after Friday’s +$0.94);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.49);
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.44);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.42);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.35);
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.34);
Closing – 1 –ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed up +0.10% and XBI closed down -0.30%
- Friday, the IBB closed up +0.23% and XBI closed up +2.66%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -0.20 points or -1.22% at 16.19
- Friday was down -2.51 points or -13.32% at 16.33
Upside volume:
- Monday: 3 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 5 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume:
- Monday: 4 out of the 26-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …
- Monday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.13% (VCEL) to +24.59% (BSTG) while the 26-downside -0.04% (SAGE) to -5.69% (EDIT);
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.53% (GBT) to +18.08% (BSTG) while the 2-downside -1.73% (BLFS) to -2.53% (VYGR);
August, the second month of Q3/21:
Monday (8/30) closed negative with 7 advancers, 26 decliner, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Friday closed positive with 30 advancers, 2 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: As I had stated, “Investor conviction and any trust is being challenged even as the sector falls, I … still believe a … “conflagration” is upon us” … as the condition of being oversold resonates in comparison or based on the last few months of share pricing!
Reiterating, being overbought set-up another “SELLING “condition” as the month of August ends.
When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started.
Q2 reporting season has essentially run its course; although a few remain with my questions of WHY so late …?
A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.
I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
