October 4, 2021 5:11pm
Upcoming earnings season needs to be plugged into share pricings model; be prepared for the unveiling of Q3 results which I am sure we won’t like what is coming
News: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) announced new long-term data from the OPTIC trial of ADVM-022 gene therapy for neovascular or wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD).
Pre-open indication results: 3 Hits and 2 MISS
Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?
The Dow closed DOWN -323.54 points (-0.94%); the S&P closed DOWN -56.68 points (-1.30%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -311.21 points (-2.14%)
Henry’omics:
Monday started the week risk-off as stock futures slipped, indexes dived and the 10-year yield edging up +1.5%.
One of the first hurdles markets face in the new quarter is Friday’s closely watched employment report, which could spur the Fed’s decision on when to taper its bond-buying program. Economists expect about 475,000 jobs were added in September.
Notes: Merck (MRK) shares gained 2.1%, following through on an 8% surge on Friday after the drug maker said its oral antiviral treatment developed with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics for Covid-19 reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases.
Economic Data Docket: A busy enough week of data starts with factory orders later, and ends with payroll numbers.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …
- Monday opened negative at 4/27, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Friday opened negative at 6/28 and 1 acquired, flipped stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 16/17, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “October’s first full trading week looks weak” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12122
Pre-open indication results: 3 Hits: < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$7.28), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$8.86), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.62)> and 2 MISS < Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.09), Biostage (BSTG +$0.58 – “pumped”).
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “wrongful death law suit, insurance claim denied” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12110 - negligence? <read newest version
Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:
- Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 24
Key Metric - volume:
- Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with INCREASED volume of 9 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “wrongful death law suit, insurance claim denied” … negligence? https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12110
- The “pump/promote” is back …
Monday closed up P$0.58 with 2,189 shares traded following a a.m. dive of -$0.46 with 2,018 shares traded.
Last Friday closed up +$0.12 with 1,113 shares traded after Thursday closed down -$0.02 with 6,030 shares traded, Wednesday close down -$0.72 with 1,273 shares traded, Tuesday closed up +$0.48 at $3.74 with 1,236 shares traded, Monday also closed flat with 135 shares traded,
The previous Friday closed flat with 62 shares traded, Thursday closed up +$0.06 with 839 shares traded and last Wednesday closed down -$0.45 with 3,833 shares traded.
- Will legal fees to defend the terminal death suit going to … bankrupt the company, now that legal costs and potential pay-out will not be covered by insurance?
There are clear winners and losers
Jumping with share pricing momentum (4 of 4):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.34 after Friday’s +$3.87)
- Biostage (+$0.58 after Friday’s +$0.21 – “pumped”),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.22),
- Pluristem (PSTI +$0.04),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.02),
Hammered in today’s market (10 of 28):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$8.86 after Friday’s -$0.64),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$7.95 after Friday’s -$1.64)
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$7.28),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.09 after Friday’s +$0.23)
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.82 after Friday’s -$2.39),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.62 after Friday’s -$1.17)
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.02 after Friday’s +$0.26)
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.34 after Friday’s +$1.52)
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.24),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$1.03),
Closing Flat:
- 1 – ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed down -2.04% and XBI closed down -2.95%
- Friday the IBB closed down -1.70% and XBI closed up +0.37%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1.81 points or +8.56% at 22.96
- Friday was down -2.03 points or -8.77% at 21.11
October, the first month of Q3/21:
Monday (10/4) closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Friday (10/1) closed negative with 4 advancers, 28 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: What’s changed …?
We are here … the first full week of October, the month for some of history's most infamous market routs. Let’s not forget Q3 results are being prepared.
“Investors, in my mind, are realizing or thinking through a wall of worry that includes the debt ceiling, higher oil prices and inflation, a weaker-than-expected earnings season, and a Federal Reserve that’s becoming less dovish,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest.
As I have stated,” investors were still mulling implications on-going Washington, D.C. political antics, inflation worries, bond yields, infrastructure arguments, questions of drug pricing and patterns while military patterns of behavior re the debacle of the Afghanistan withdrawal i.e., surrender “bites” and hard!”
Sentiment has been capricious and languishing as the sector bounded to the downside.
The stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme moves in either direction, overbought and oversold categories as risk stimulates the susceptibility!
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
