October 6, 2021 5:33pm

Sentiment, volatility, low volume defines share pricing instability

Pre-open indication results: 6 Hits and 0 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session

A fact and numbers based narrative

The Dow closed UP +102.32 points (+0.30%); the S&P closed UP +17.83 points (+0.41%) while the Nasdaq closed UP 68.08 points (+0.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

Markets were diving until, “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offered a short-term suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling to avert a national default and economic crisis until Democrats are able to pass a more permanent solution before the end of the year” before a rally (earning back a -459-point loss from earlier in the session) enhanced upside.

 

Economic data Docket: September’s ADP report showed that private companies hired at a faster clip than expected last month, despite worries about the delta variant. Private jobs rose by 568,000 for the month, better than the estimate from economists of 425,000.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 13/20, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/23, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: follow-through, a joke. A follow-through session usually occurs into a rally “effort” however; the issue is low volume than the prior session’s volatility.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12126

 

Pre-open indication results: 6 Hits: < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.07), Biostage (BSTG -$0.02), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.40), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.07), MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01), Sangamo Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.13) and 0 MISS>

 

Key Metric - volume:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with INCREASED volume of 7 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Largest downside volume:

  • Voyager (VYGR +$1.40 – 200.75 m shares traded),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.11 – 4.38 M shares traded),

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “For years, U.S. regulators said they never got the transparency they needed into the auditing on Chinese companies because https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12110

  • The “pump/promote” is NOT working…

Wednesday closed down -$0.02 with 951 shares traded after Tuesday closed down -$0.59 with 957 shares traded following Monday closed up +$0.58 with 2,189 shares traded following an a.m. dive of -$0.46 with 2,018 shares traded.

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (9 of 9):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.73 after Tuesday’s +$3.33 and Monday’s +$2.34)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.60 after Tuesday’s -$1.43 and Monday’s -$7.95)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.60 after Tuesday’s -$0.09),
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.62 after Tuesday’s +$0.67),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS =$0.55 after Tuesday’s +$0.46 and Monday’s -$1.24),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.21),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.10 after Tuesday’s +$1.85 and Monday’s -$1.34)
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.07),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 23):

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.69 after Tuesday’s +$0.94 and Monday’s -$2.62)
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.63 after Tuesday’s +$2.14 and Monday’s -$2.82),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.51 after Tuesday’s +$0.31),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.50),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.40 after Tuesday’s -$0.31),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.34 after Tuesday’s -$0.42 and Monday’s -$2.02)
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.28),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.27 after Tuesday’s -$0.38),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$0.51),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.89 and Monday’s -$3.09)

Closing Flat:

  • 2 – Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), uniQure NV (QURE) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday the IBB closed down -1.20% and XBI closed down -1.06%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.30 points or -1.41% at 21.00

 

October, the first month of Q3/21:

Wednesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What did I say this a.m. … There's no need for investors to try to rush back into the sector.

if the sector has any “legs”, there will be plenty of opportunities for investors after a confirmed rally.

There is still a lot of risk out-there and sentiment is as lonely as volatility. If you still have an appetite for stocks, keep your positions small and be ready to exit quickly.

Sentiment has been capricious and languishing as the sector bounded to the downside.

The stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme moves in either direction, overbought and oversold categories as risk stimulates the susceptibility!

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.