October 18, 2021 5:46pm

Sentiment was thrown in hamper while trust and conviction were flushed

News: Ionis Pharmaceuticals <partnered with Biogen (BIIB)> experimental amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) drug did not meet endpoints, leading IONS to dive -$4.85 or -13.82%

Pre-open indication results: 6 Hits and 0 MISS

My version of the session’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what did happen after the opening, mid-day and to the close

An objective, fact and numbers-based narrative – check the numbers!

The Dow closed DOWN -36.15 points (-0.10%); the S&P closed UP +15.09 points (+0.34%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +124.47 points (+0.84%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes were mixed on Monday …

Stem, cell and gene therapy stocks were under pressure in trading due to lack of sector news, upcoming Q3 releases, concerns about slowing economic growth and inflation, particularly in higher gas prices.

The U.S. economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, which triggered nationwide lockdowns over a year ago. A resurgence in cases fueled by the more contagious delta variant has recently started to slow down as vaccinations rise.

China reported GDP that disappointed, coming in at 4.9% annual growth in the third quarter. That was short of the 5.2% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters. Industrial production in China last month also fell short of expectations. <CNBC>

Also, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 1.627% today as rising rates have caused some pressure in share pricing.

 

News continued: IONS/BIIB saw favorable trends in other measures of progress toward treating the fatal disease, and would engage with all the stakeholders to determine potential next steps. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis or ALS is uniformly fatal with an average survival of three to five years. The most common cause of death is respiratory failure.

 

Interesting note: Amgen (AMGN) was down -2.27% as it continues to trade at its lowest levels in almost 18 months. Other healthcare stocks were also weak Monday, with Merck (MRK) down 1.18%, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) slipped -0.73% and Pfizer PFE) slipped -0.41% as Moderna (MRNA) was up +3.28% and BioNTech (BNTX) was also up +5.41%

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Monday opened negative at 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 13/21 and 1 acquired;
  • Friday opened positive at 16/15, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 11/21, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 7/25, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: indexes are slipping, will the sector fall with it? Sector earnings or LPS (loss-per-share) will start around 10/28 – so caution is served.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12142

 

Pre-open indication results: 6 Hits: <Biostage (BSTG -$0.065 with 4,041 shares traded); SELL into Strength:  Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.66), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.13), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.33), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - $0.79), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.34)> and 0 MISS

 

Key Metric - volume:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with INCREASED volume of 5 of 21-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Largest downside volume:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -4.85 – 5.306 m shares traded)

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (13 of 13):

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.00 after Friday’s -$1.50),
  • Vericel (VCEL =$1.26),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.68 after Friday’s +$0.93),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.45),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.34 after Friday’s -$1.28),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.26 after Friday’s -$0.93),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.19 after Friday’s -$1.41),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.18 after Friday’s +$0.24),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.13 after Friday’s +$0.29),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.13),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.07),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.05),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.02),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 21):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$4.85 after Friday’s +$0.61)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.66 after Friday’s -$0.73
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.98 after Friday’s -$1.00),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.79 after Friday’s -$0.58),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.13 after Friday’s -$1.27),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$-0.87 after Friday’s -$0.95),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.79 after Friday’s -$1.70),
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.60),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.57),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.33 after Friday’s +$0.13),

Closing Flat:

  • 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.85% and XBI closed down -2.09%
  • Friday the IBB closed down -0.51% and XBI closed down -1.59%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.01 points or +0.06% at 16.31
  • Friday was down -0.56 points or -3.32% at 16.30

 

October, the first month of Q3/21:

Monday (10/18) closed negative with 13 advancers, 21 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I said a “watch-out” was due…

Volume was as low in the sector versus Friday.

We're starting to get into an earnings-driven down slide. We'll be seeing the results in the next couple of weeks. Coming, EPS (earnings-per-share) risk; but, eyeing muted returns for the rest of 2021 after quarterly releases.

Once again, a large number of stem, cell and gene therapy stocks showed strength within lackluster meaning – low volume.

There are a lot of headwinds out there as we embark on corporate earnings, and traders will be looking for any and all indications of guidance.

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme moves in either direction, overbought and oversold categories as risk stimulates the susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.