October 25, 2021 4:59pm

Re-think percentage (%) of Q4 holdings

Pre-open indication results: 5 Hit and 1 MISS

My version of the session’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what did happen after the opening, mid-day and to the close

An objective, fact and numbers-based narrative – check the numbers!

The Dow closed UP +64.13 points (+0.18%); the S&P closed UP +21.61 points (+0.48%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +136.51 points (+0.90%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes moved higher on Monday…

The Nasdaq the top major index of the day as it popped 0.9%.

Today, Monday is the opening ‘shot” for the stem, cell and gene therapy sector as uniQure NV (QURE) reported a net loss of -$36.5 M or -$0.79 per shares, a +$200 K upload of revenue from Q2, $578.5 M in cash and a runway until 1H/24.

Entering the final week of October, the major averages have all registered solid gains for the month; the Dow and the S&P 500 are both up more than 5%, while the Nasdaq has climbed 4.4% month to date.

The Russell 2000 was finished with a gain of 1%.

 

Economic Data Docket: readings on U.S. Q3 GDP - the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Monday opened negative at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired, strayed neutral at the mid-day at 16/16, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 15/17, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Friday opened negative at 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 2/32, and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: after weakness comes selectivity. Sector earnings begin this today as uniQure MV (QURE) releases” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12152

 

Pre-open indication results: 5 Hit: < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 with 609 shares traded); BUY: Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.47), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.09), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.01); SELL into Strength: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.43)> and 1 MISS< Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.71), >

 

Key Metric - volume:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with INCREASING volume of 7 of 17-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 15):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.28 after Friday’s +$0.01),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.97 after Friday’s -$2.68),
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.50 after Friday’s -$2.50)
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.47 after Friday’s -$0.18),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.14 after Friday’s -$1.50),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.06 after Friday’s -$5.72),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.90 after Friday’s +$0.22),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.43 after Friday’s +$0.41),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.41 after Friday’s +$1.11),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.39 after Friday’s -$0.65),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 17):

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.84 after Friday’s -$0.48),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.71 after Friday’s +$0.20),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.34 after Friday’s +$0.11),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.32 after Friday’s +$0.72),
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.21),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.20 after Friday’s -$0.51),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.19),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.17),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.04),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.04),

Closing Flat:

  • 2 – Biostage (BSTG), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.14% and XBI closed up +0.17%
  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.29% and XBI closed up +0.27%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was down -0.19 points or -1.23% at 15.24
  • Friday was up +0.42 points or +2.80% at 15.43

 

October, the first month of Q3/21:

Monday (10/25) closed negative with 15 advancers, 17 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What I wrote this a.m., “Don't let earnings week take advantage of you. Be ready to act on up-coming earnings news, good or bad, but don't be too hasty.”

We'll be seeing the results these couples of weeks as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on 10/28 followed by Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 11/2, Fate therapeutics (FATE) on 11/4, Vericel (VCEL on 11/9 and Athersys (ATHX) on 11/15 – so far.

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.