November 1, 2021 7:44am

Earnings dominate the first week as LPS’ (loss-per-share) releases set the tone

Earnings this week: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Regenxbio (RGNX) on Tuesday, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) on 11/4 and Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 11/5

Pre-open indications: 1 BUY, 3 SELLs with 1 Pump (or No Promote)

What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.

Dow futures are UP +0.47% (+167 points), S&P futures are UP +0.44% (+20 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.43% (+68 point)

 

U.S. stock futures posted a strong gain in early morning trading Monday

European stocks also posted gains have kicked off November on a positive note

Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed as investors reacted to economic data that showed a mixed picture of Chinese manufacturing activity in October (Japan jumped and Chinese indexes dived).

 

Henry’omics:

Market and sector “watchers” should be ready for the on slot of corporate and sector earnings, a Fed meeting on Wednesday and October’s jobs report.

My worries: Indexes closed out October at record highs with the Dow (+5.8%), S&P 500 (+6.9%) and Nasdaq +7.3&) clinched their best month in October.

Also, the Fed’s two-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and it is widely expected to announce that it will begin to unwind its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases and end the program entirely by the middle of next year with comments on rising prices as inflation has been running at a 30-year high.

 

Economic data Docket: this week …

  • Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for October, which is expected to fall to 60.3 from September’s 61.1. Any number above 50 is considered expansion.
  • The other big event for the week will be October’s employment report Friday, which could show some improvement in hiring, as new cases of Covid-19 continued to decline. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to show an increase of 450,000 after September’s meager 194,000 gain, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.7%.

 

If you didn’t remember what happen at Friday night’s close and the quarter’s “number’s” impact, you won’t be prepared for today’s session:

Q4: October, 8 positive and 13 negative closes

Q3/21:

  • September, 1 holiday, 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August - 12 positive and 10 negative close
  • July: 6 positives, 1 holiday and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

SELL with a Pump or no promote:

Biostage (BSTG) closed flat with 95 shares traded after Wednesday’s +$0.10 after being down -$0.40 with 216 shares traded when suddenly 1,676 shares traded following Tuesday’s -$0.05 with 1,216 shares traded after Monday’s flat at $3.05 with 609 shares traded and Friday’s -$0.156 with 516 shares traded.

  • For a company with NO clinical trial, an a one (1) and a half year approved IND, four (4) employees and NO CRO <clinical research organization> initiation.
  • What’s there to invest in – the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over its recent insurance company rejection of legal expense/costs of a terminal death suit against the company?

 

Probabilities versus share pricing moves:

BUY after earnings release (10/28) dive

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$2.58 to $159.56 after Thursday’s-$29.02 to $162.14 after Wednesday’s -$6.55, Tuesday’s -$1.96 and last Monday’s +$1.06) with a positive +$3.89 or +2.44% pre-open indication,

 

SELL:

uniQure NV (QURE) closed down -$0.18 to $30.47 after Thursday’s +$1.59 to $30.65 with a negative -$0.47 or -1.54% pre-open indication,

 

Maintaining SELL into Strength:

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up 2.40 to $53.15 after Thursday’s +$2.25 to $50.75, Wednesday’s +$1.23, Tuesday’s +$1.99, Monday’s +$2.28 with negative pre-open indication and a 52-week change of +79.80%. The market expects BioLife Solutions, Inc. (BLFS) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2021. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$3.13 to $132.98 with a +$0.52 or +0.39% pre-open indication. Earnings release on 11/4

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating, “Don't let earnings week take advantage of you” … because it will!

It's highly risky to buy a stock just before earnings, and investors may want to take whole or partial profits on holdings with tiny gains.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings with Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Regenxbio (RGNX) on 11/2, Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) on 11/4, Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 11/5, Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/8, Vericel (VCEL) on 11/9, Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.