November 3, 2021 5:25pm

I’m selling because a conflagration is coming and keeping the “mag” dry

Pre-open indication results: 14 HITs <to profit> and 0 MISS

Earnings results: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and AxoGen (AXGN) <read more>

My version of the session’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what did happen after the opening, mid-day and to the close

An objective, fact and numbers-based narrative – check the numbers!

The Dow closed UP +104.75 points (+0.29%); the S&P closed UP + 29.93points (+0.65%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +161. points (+1.04%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose to yet another record on Wednesday after the Fed slowed the monthly bond purchases implemented during the pandemic.

Today is the fourth (4th) session in a row that all three (3) major averages closed at new highs.

 

Economic data Docket: Tapering of bond purchases will start “later this month” and will reduce purchases by $15 billion a month, putting it on track to end the quantitative easing by the middle of next year. This amount was in line with expectations.

  • However, the Fed said it is prepared to alter the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook.
  • Wednesday’s ADP report showed: U.S. private employers added back more jobs than expected last month, reflecting a pick-up in the pace of hiring as more service-focused companies brought back workers to meet elevated demand. Private payrolls grew by 571,000 in October compared to September, ADP said in its closely watched monthly report.

 

Earnings results:

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) had a net loss of -$18 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.16, a cash position of $2 b with solid revenue of 1.4 m versus $0 in Q3/20,

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) had a net loss of -$82 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.58, a cash position of $1.8 B with DOWN revenues of $133 m versus Q3/20 of $160 m,

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) had a net loss of -$127.2 m, a negative loss per share of -$1.67 and a cash position of $2,477 m with an increase of revenues ($300 K versus $100 K),

AxoGen (AXGN) had a net loss of -$7.1 m, a negative loss pre share of -$0.17, a cash position of $98.1 m and a 7% decrease in revenues.

 

Note: Biostage (BSTG) was down -$0.40 to $2.60 with 1,208 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.10 to $3.00 with 200 shares traded, flat again $0.00 on Monday with 80 shares traded to $3.10 after Friday’s 162 shares traded, Thursday’s 95 shares traded and last Wednesday’s move from -$0.40 with 216 shares traded until the “pump” was turned-on with 1,676 shares traded to close +$0.10 – where is the SEC?

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 19/16 and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 21/10, 3 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “is today, a post earnings response and some more. Ain’t feelin’ all that nice, roll the dice.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12166

 

Pre-open indication results: 14 Hit: <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.40); SELL- profiting: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.04), Precigen (PGEN +$0.30), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.37), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) +$0.10), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.79), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.52), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.16), Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.15), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.19), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.54), Verastem (VSTM +$0.08), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.08), Verastem (VSTM +$0.07)> and 0 MISS>

 

Key Metric - volume:

Sector volume INCREASED with 13 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Upside Volume:

  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) +$0.37 with 1.98 m after Tuesday’s 3.36 m shares traded,
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) +$0.79 with 1.346 m shares traded,
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) +$3.54 with 988,594 shares traded,
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS =$0.01 with 503,099 shares traded,

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.22 after Tuesday’s +$1.29 and Monday’s +$6.80),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.54 after Tuesday’s +$1.20 and Monday’s +$2.01),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$3.29 after Tuesday’s +$1.06),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$3.07 after Tuesday’s +$1.12 and Monday’s -$0.18),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.52),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.79 after Tuesday’s +$1.41 and Monday’s +$1.23),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.79 after Tuesday’s -$1.15 and Monday’s +$2.06),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.16),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.43),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$1.06),

Hammered in today’s market (6 of 6):

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$3.00 after Tuesday’s flat -$4.50 and Monday’s flat),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.40 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s flat),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.568),
  • Brainstorm cell therapeutics (BCLI -$0.06),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.03),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.03),

Closing Flat:

  • 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +1.30% and XBI closed up +2.20%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.93 points or -5.80% at 15.10

 

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (11/1) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I am building a cash reservoir for I believe this market and sector is about to take a dive!

WHY: In line with expectations, the Fed begins slowing the pace of bond purchases by $15 billion this month. It plans to end all purchases by June. Stocks were initially volatile after the announcement. Small caps have outperformed the market this week, as the Russell 2000 gained nearly 2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record all-time closes for their fifth straight sessions, while the Dow posted a record close for the fourth (4th) session in a row.

Expected Q3 earnings … might seemed to lift sentiment for equities; however, illusions are known to exist in a ‘desert” of down sessions after last month – the latest three (3) up session are just a litmus test of advance/decline line of being oversold.

We are seeing to date, eleven (11) net losses to date <uniQure (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Axogen (AXGN)> earning’s releases that initiated Q3 earnings reporting season and beginning the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings coming with Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) on 11/4, Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 11/5, Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/8, Vericel (VCEL) and Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) on 11/9, Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.