November 4, 2021 5:32pm

While low volume, earnings and conviction signal sector’s slight decline

Pre-open indication results: 10 HITs and 4 MISS

News: bluebird bio (BLUE) has completed the tax-free spin-off of its oncology programs and portfolio into 2seventy bio, Inc., an independent, publicly-traded company. BLUE will continue its work focused on severe genetic disease, with three near-term opportunities to bring transformative gene therapies to patients and their families in the U.S. 2seventy will begin regular-way trading on the NASDAQ under the stock ticker symbol "TSVT" on 11/5/21. bluebird bio will continue to trade under the stock ticker symbol "BLUE."

Earnings Results: Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) with a net income following net losses from Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Verastem Oncology (VSTM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) and Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) <read more>

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing. Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed DOWN -33.35 points (-0.09%); the S&P closed UP +19.9 points (+0.42%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +128.72 points (+0.81%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Nasdaq is popping to an all-time high but, for how long?

“The Fed’s tapering announcement removes a minor, but overhanging worry across markets, as investors had been waiting for this moment for months, and it reinforces the view that the economic recovery has a long runway, albeit with a low rate of growth,” said George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris Harris. It “is a signal of economic strength, which is good for corporate earnings and markets.” <CNBC>

 

Economic Data Docket: U.S. jobless claims totaled 269,000 for the week ended Oct. 30, the lowest pandemic-era total and better than the 275,000 expected by economists.

 

Note: Merck (MRK) was a winner with a nearly 3% gain in heavy volume. The drug giant confirmed that Britain approved molnupiravir, its oral Covid-19 treatment developed with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. The companies have applied for approval in the U.S. and the EU. While Moderna (MRNA) tumbled (-$61.90 or -17.89%) as it sees lower COVID-19 vaccine sales

 

Earnings results:

Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) had a net loss of -$18 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.33, a cash position of $59 m with solid revenue of 1.4 m versus $0 in Q3/20,

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) had a net loss of -$71.6 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.97, a cash position of $1.1 B, revenues decreased by -$15 m ($7.2 m versus $22.2 m) versus Q3/20,

Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) had a net loss of -$6.9 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.12, a cash position of $100.1 m and no revenues,

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) had a net loss of -$43.3 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.45, a cash position of $803.6 m, doubled revenues versus Q3/20,

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) had a net loss of -$71 m, a negative loss per share of -$1.13, a cash position of $416.8 m, increased revenues ($52 m versus-$36.8 m) versus Q3/20,

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) had a net loss of -$22.8 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.13, a cash position of $103.4 m, zero revenues versus $78.6 m in Q3/20,

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) had a net loss of -$38.4 m, a negative loss per share of -$0.39, a cash position of $332.7 m,

Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) had a net income of +1.2 m, a positive per share of +$0.08, a cash position of $20.8 m, $5 m revenues decreased from -$5.7 m for Q3/20,

 

Note: Biostage (BSTG) was flat at $2.60 with 82 shares traded after Wednesday’s down -$0.40 to $2.60 with 1,208 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.10 to $3.00 with 200 shares traded, flat again $0.00 on Monday with 80 shares traded to $3.10 after Friday’s 162 shares traded, Thursday’s 95 shares traded and last Wednesday’s move from -$0.40 with 216 shares traded until the “pump” was turned-on with 1,676 shares traded to close +$0.10 – where is the SEC?

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Thursday opened negative at 14/18, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 15/16, 3 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “there are sessions I am out-on-the-limb having brought a saw with me. I’m recommending “tapering” sector BUYs with SELLs as the Nasdaq has rallied for eight (8) straight sessions with the sector up three (3) sessions after the previous two (2) week’s eight (8) up and two (2) down sessions. The question is, the sector close to being extended as earnings season drags LPS (loss-per-share) deeper? If selling, do it into strength!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12168

 

Pre-open indication results: 10 HITs: <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY – Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$12.68), MiMedx (MDXG +$0.09), ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.50), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.97), Vericel (VCEL -$1.37), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.21), AxoGen (AXGN -$2.38), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.14), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.85)> and 4 MISS < BUY -CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.88), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.89), SELL: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.36), uniQure NV (QURE) +$0.11),

 

Key Metric - volume:

Sector volume INCREASED with 9 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 9 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Upside Volume:

  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) +$1.75 with 6.559 m shares traded after Wednesday’s 1.98 m after Tuesday’s 3.36 m shares traded,

Downside Volume:

  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.24 with 2.253 m shares traded
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.88 with 2.07 m shares traded
  • Global Blood therapeutics (GBT -$0.89 with 2.02 m shares traded

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$12.68 after Wednesday’s +$5.22, Tuesday’s +$1.29 and Monday’s +$6.80),
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.50 after Wednesday’s -$3.00, Tuesday’s flat -$4.50 and Monday’s flat),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$1.75),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.01),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.87),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.82 after Wednesday’s +$1.15 and Tuesday’s +$0.43),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.36 after Wednesday’s -$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.568),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.15),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.03),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.14 after Wednesday’s +$3.29 and Tuesday’s +$1.06),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 17):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.88),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$2.380,
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.87),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.37 after Wednesday’s +$3.07, Tuesday’s +$1.12 and Monday’s -$0.18),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.89 after Wednesday’s +$1.16),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.85),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.73 after Wednesday’s +$2.52),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.56),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.44 after Wednesday’s +$3.54, Tuesday’s +$1.20 and Monday’s +$2.01),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.26 after Wednesday’s +$1.79, Tuesday’s -$1.15 and Monday’s +$2.06),
  • Brainstorm cell therapeutics (BCLI -$0.06),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.03),

Closing Flat:

  • 3 – Biostage (BSTG), Pluristem (PSTI), Verastem Oncology (VSTM) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.79% and XBI closed down -0.70%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.34 points or =2.25% at 15.44

 

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Thursday closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (11/1) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I am building a cash reservoir for I believe the Nasdaq flew and sector took a slight dive in the advance/decline line (A/DL)!

Expected Q3 earnings … illusions are known to exist in a ‘desert” of down sessions after last month – the latest three (3) up session are just a litmus test of advance/decline line of being oversold.

We are seeing to date, one (1) net income – Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), twenty-one (21) net losses to date <uniQure (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) and Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO),  > earning’s releases that initiated Q3 earnings reporting season and beginning the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings coming with Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 11/5, Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/8, Vericel (VCEL) and Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) on 11/9, BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 11/11 followed by Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.