November 10, 2021 5:11pm

Sentiment is enveloped by inflation

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs, 2 MISS

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: closed UP +$0.18 after being “pumped/promoted” with 2,006 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.03 with 3,304 shares traded following Monday’s +$0.07 with 7,0882 shares traded and Friday’s flat $0.00 at $2.60 with 9,003 shares traded

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing. Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed DOWN -240.04 points (-0.66%); the S&P closed DOWN -38.54 points (-0.82%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -263.84 points (-1.66%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Wednesday as a surge in U.S. consumer prices last month deepened fears that high inflation is here to stay amid supply chain snarls.

The CBOE Market Volatility index, a gauge for investor anxiety, shot up to its highest level in nearly one month earlier in the session.

 

Economic Data Docket: The Labor Department's report also showed that in the 12 months through October the consumer price index increased 6.2%, the largest year-on-year advance since November 1990.

 

Note: Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.18 with 2,006 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.03 with 3,304 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.07 after being up +$0.60 with 7,082 shares traded, Friday’s flat $0.00 with 9,003 shares traded, Thursday’s flat at $2.60 with 82 shares traded, Wednesday’s down -$0.40 to $2.60 with 1,208 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.10 to $3.00 with 200 shares traded, flat again $0.00 on Monday with 80 shares traded to $3.10 after last Friday’s 162 shares traded, Thursday’s 95 shares traded and previous Wednesday’s move from -$0.40 with 216 shares traded until the “pump” was turned-on with 1,676 shares traded to close +$0.10 – where is the SEC?

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 11/22, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector weakness should/could unfold some of the oversold.  Skittish sector Investors are not holding their breath for the end of earnings season” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12177

 

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs: < SELL into Strength - Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.47) to profit, Pluristem (PSTI -$0.17), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$3.90), Editas Medicine (EDIT - $1.70), BUY into Weakness, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA - $7.45)> and 2 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.18) REGENXBIO (RGNX -$0.81)>

 

Key Metric - volume:

Sector volume HIGH with 2 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 8 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Outstanding Upside Volume:

  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.47 with 2.063 m shares traded,
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.43 with 4.275 m shares traded,

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (4 of 4):

  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.32, Monday’s -$1.77 and a proposed offering),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$0.18 and Monday’s -$2.40),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.18 after being pumped),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.03),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 30):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$11.58 after Tuesday’s +$2.29 and Monday’s +$0.59),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$7.67 after Tuesday’s -$4.05 and Monday’s +$0.72),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$4.51 after Tuesday’s +$0.23 and Monday’s +$1.77),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$3.90 after Tuesday’s +$0.28 and Monday’s -$0.59),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.69 after Tuesday’s -$2.87 and Monday’s +$3.90),
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$3.50),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.67),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.36 after Tuesday’s -$1.05 and Monday’s -$0.73),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.87 after Tuesday’s -$1.94),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.85 after Tuesday’s -$0.96),

Closing Flat:

  • 1 – Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.29% and XBI closed down -1.90%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +0.95 points or +5.34% at 18.73

 

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliners, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (11/8) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Did consumer prices curb investor risk appetite, and stoke worries of a protracted wave of red-hot inflation.

It's not surprising that after what has been a bad run of negative closes – five (5) not an unusual run for the sector undergoing an earnings proctology examination.

As I stated in this morning’s post, “sector weakness should/could unfold some of the oversold”.

Expected Q3 earnings …

We are seeing to date,

  • One (1) net income – Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM),
  • Twenty-one (21) net losses to date <uniQure (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO),  Cellectis SA (CLLS), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and today’s … Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) and Vericel (VCEL)>
  • Q3 earnings reporting season began the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings remaining with BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 11/11 followed by Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.