November 15, 2021 5:11pm
Underlying behavioral element initiate unprecedented downslides, news, an end to earnings cycle and an M&A needed to spur buying
Pre-open indication results: 7 HITs, 3 MISS
Earnings: Four (4) more net losses <read more>
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing. Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist and pundit; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning
The Dow closed DOWN -12.86 points (-0.04%); the S&P closed DOWN -0.05 points (-0.00 %) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -7.11 points (-0.04%)
Henry’omics:
Stem, cell and gene therapy sector equities are coming off a losing week … and the decline continues!
Indexes closed down paring gains from earlier in the day as U.S. Treasury yields reversed and climbed higher.
“Today’s price action in the bond market is an indicator of how fluid the inflation story really is.” <Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management>
30-year high could indeed remain a stickier problem and challenge for businesses, consumers and monetary policy makers to contend with over the next four to six months or even longer” <John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management>
Earnings:
Athersys (ATHX) had a net loss of -$16.2 m, or -$0.07 per share, an increase in revenue of $4.8 m from $100 K in Q3/20 with a cash position of $49.7 M and a runway until 1H/22.
Biostage (BSTG) had a net loss of -$800 K, or -$0.80, a $200 K decrease in grant income and a cash position of $2 m—still with NO clinical trial with a 2-year-old IND. Add in some legal negliagence ...
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) had a Q3 net loss of -$5.3 m, or -$0.15 per share, no revenue with a cash position of $38 m and a runway until Q1/22.
Homology Medicine (FIXX)had a net loss of -$30.6 m, or -$0.54 per share, an increase of revenue of $1.7 m versus Q3/20 or $600 K and a cash position of $187.6 m and a runway until Q1/23.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …
- Monday opened negative at 13/19, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/20, 2 flats, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 13/20, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
- Friday opened positive at 16/15, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 12/18, 4 flats and 1 acquired;
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “After last week's market losses, how should investors respond? Is there any upside for the sector stock holders? It’s coming slowly, waiting for news to affect sentiment.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12183
Pre-open indication results: 7 HITs: < Biostage (BSTG +$0.00); SELL into Strength: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.19) – profit, BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.69) – profit; BUY: Mesoblast (MESO +$0.80), Pluristem (PSTI +$0.099); SELL: Verastem (VSTM -$0.02), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.65)> and 3 MISS <Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.135), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.12), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.08)>
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Monday closed flat with 35 shares traded after Friday with 0 shares traded, Thursday’s -$0.22 with 2005 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.18 after being “pumped/promoted” with 2,006 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.03 with 3,304 shares traded following Monday’s +$0.07 with 7,0882 shares traded. Where is the SEC and Nasdaq monitoring?
Key Metric - volume
Sector volume LOW with 2 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
There are clear winners and losers
Jumping with share pricing momentum (12 of 12):
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.59 after Friday’s -$2.15),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.44 after Friday’s -$2.18),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.16 after Friday’s +$0.77),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.82 after Friday’s +$0.20),
- Pluristem (PSTI +$0.12),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.10 after Friday’s -$0.87),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.07),
- Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI +$0.07),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.06),
- Solid Biosciences SLDB +$0.02),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.01 after Friday’s -$1.33),
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.01),
Hammered in today’s market (10 of 20):
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$6.07 after Friday’s +$0.24),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.85 after Friday’s +$1.01),
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.50),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.12 after Friday’s -$0.64),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.91 after Friday’s -$0.30),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.18 after Friday’s +$0.20),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.89 after Friday’s -$0.83),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.48 after Friday’s +$0.22),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.55),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.47 after Friday’s +$0.08),
Closing Flat:
- 2 – Biostage (BSTG), Athersys (ATHX) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed down -0.53% and XBI closed down -2.09%
- Friday, the IBB closed up +0.38% and XBI closed up +0.18%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +0.20 points or +1.23% at 16.49
- Friday was down -1.37 points or -7.76% at 16.29
November, the second month of Q4/21:
Monday (11/15) closed negative with 13 incliners,20 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 18 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: After a week of whipsaw, another negative action follows, with four (4) new net losses within a sector close …
It's not surprising that after what has been a bad run of negative closes – eight (8) is an unusual run for the sector undergoing an earnings proctology examination.
Q3 earnings …
We are seeing to date,
- One (1) net income – Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM),
- Twenty-one (21) net losses to date <uniQure (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and today’s … Biostage (BSTG), Athersys (ATHX), Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)
- Q3 earnings reporting season began the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.
The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings remaining with a couple still to notify of release
Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
