November 18, 2021 5:44pm

As I stated this a.m., now eleven (11) session “dives, are we set for more – I’d wait until Monday, as Thursday just might be a marginal up day and if Friday increases the beginning of inclines.” 

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs, 1 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist and pundit; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price targets.

The Dow closed DOWN -650.10 points (-0.17%); the S&P closed UP +15.87 points (+0.34%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +72.14 points (+0.45%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks were mixed on Thursday … up, down, closing round and round with Dow down, S&P up flowed by the Nasdaq.

Trading has been choppy all week with the major averages wavering at the flat line, and Thursday was no exception. The S&P and Nasdaq are still on track for a positive week and are about 0.3% from their records. The Dow is nearly 2% from its record.

“Concerns about Covid also caused the 10-year bond yield to decline for the first time in 6 days and kept downward pressure on commodity prices including another sizable drop in crude oil prices. If inflation keeps rising while another Covid surge again stalls real economic activity, we may find out how the stock market handles a pseudo-stagflationary episode.” <Jim Paulson, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Group>

Pains and gains:

  • Precigen (PGEN) reached a 52-week low of $3.71 and dropped lower -$0.01 to $3.74 or -0.27% 
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) reached a 52-week low of $83.42 and dropped even lower -$3.11 or --3.61%
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) reached a 52-week low of $5.37 and dropped even lower -$0.21 or -3.84%

 

Economic Data Docket:  The Labor Department released weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected

  • Initial unemployment claims, week ended November 13: 268,000 vs. 260,000 expected and an upwardly revised 269,000 during prior week
  • Continuing claims, week ended November 5: 2.080 million vs. 2.120 million expected and an upwardly revised 2.209 million during prior week
  • First-time unemployment claims held below the psychologically important 300,000 level for a sixth straight week. The steady move lower in jobless claims over the past several months has underscored continued improvement in the labor market's recovery, especially on the demand side as employers look to hold onto workers. <Bloomberg>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Thursday opened negative at 15 ups/18 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, dived more negatively at 11 a.m. with 8 ups/25 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 10/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 10 ups/25 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “concerns about risk. Where and what are the coefficients of share pricing appreciation as markets point to a higher open?” …   https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12189

 

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs: < Biostage (BSTG +$0.00); Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.51); SELL from BUY: Mesoblast (MESO +$0.33); SELL: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.20); SELL into Strength: uniQure NV (QURE -$0.68), Verastem (VSTM -$0.16), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.06), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.29)> and 1 MISS < BUY: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.34)>

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Thursday closed with 17 shares traded after Wednesday closed flat $0.00 with 2,889 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.39 with 2,687 shares traded following Monday closed flat with 35 shares traded after Friday with 0 shares traded. Where is the SEC and Nasdaq monitoring?

  • WHY pump the share price with NO clinical trial from a one (1) and 3/4-year-old IND and a negligence rejection of reimbursement in a terminal death suit... because BSTG offered/priced their last private placement at $4.71 to non-US /foreign nationals without a valuation model.
  • What’s there to invest in, the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the companies non-going operations?

 

Note: Dicerna Pharmaceuticals (DRNA +$16.75 or +78.71%), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, shares of are exploding higher today in response to a $38.25 per share buyout offer from Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). DRNA's pipeline has a handful of mid-stage candidates and one in late-stage trials called nedosiran.

 

Key Metric - volume

Sector volume LOW with 6 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 12 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Outstanding Upside Volume:

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) +$0.06 with 4.61 M after Wednesday’s 2.253 m shares traded
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) +$6.25 with 1.687 m shares traded

Outstanding Downside Volume:

  • Solid BioSciences (SLDB) -$0.08 with 2.215 m shares traded

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (8 of 8):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.25),
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$4.50),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.52 after Wednesday’s -$2.05, Tuesday’s +$1.76 and Monday’s -$2.12),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.51 after Wednesday’s -$0.39),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$2.90 and Tuesday’s +$3.97),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.33 after Wednesday’s +$1.23 and Tuesday’s -$0.33),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.29 after Wednesday’s -$0.44, Tuesday’s +$2.95 and Monday’s +$2.59),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.28),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 25):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.50, Tuesday’s +$1.50 and Monday’s -$3.85),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.95 after Wednesday’s -$1.68),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$1.08),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.53),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT-$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s -$0.30 and Monday’s +$1.16),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s +$0.33 and Monday’s -$1.18),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.40),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.34),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.34),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.33 after Wednesday’s +$0.23, Tuesday’s -$0.67 and Monday’s +$0.82),

Closing Flat:

  • 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.27% and XBI closed down -0.58%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.48. points or +2.81% at 17.59

 

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What has changed, another session (this week) following a whipsaw week …

Focus on stocks that showed strong relative strength during the recent stock market weakness – I’m NOT seeing many just few!

Investors are sitting out these sessions as electronic trading and algorithms do most of the damage; be cautious about substantially adding exposure, especially in sector names.

It's not surprising that after what has been a bad run of negative closes – eleven (11) is an unusual run for the sector undergoing an earnings proctology examination.

  • Q3 earnings reporting season began the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.