November 29, 2021 7:34am
The question for investors – reluctance, trepidation or audacity to make a “move” or test any BUYs if one steps forward
Pre-open indications: 5 BUYs, 4 SELLs, 1 Pump or No Promote
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing!
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Dow futures are UP +0.54% (+191 points), S&P futures are UP +0.73% (+34 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.91% (+144 points)
Stock futures moved higher in early morning trading Monday following Friday’s big sell-off,
European stocks started the new trading week higher,
Asia-Pacific stocks fell as markets struggled as the Nikkei 225 in Japan and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong both fell more than 2% following the new covid variant news.
Henry’omics:
Indexes worst daily plunge of the year sparked a “WARNING” on whether Monday is to be a good buying opportunity.
All the economic data of the last month was strong - ISM Services hit an all-time high, manufacturing was also high and retail sales were up 1.7%."
"I don’t see it as a buying opportunity but, a test session.
The Russell 2000 tumbled below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The small-cap index is a decent proxy for market breadth, which has weakened considerably.
Also, the stem. Cell and gene therapy sector’s advance/decline lines deteriorated last week:
- Friday opened negative at 5 ups/28 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at 11 am at 1/31, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 3 ups/29 downs, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
- Thursday was a holiday,
- Wednesday opened negative at 4 ups/28 downs, 2 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 18/14, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a barely positive close of 23 ups/10 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened negative at 4 ups/28 downs, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a barely positive close of 17 ups/16 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened negative at 6 ups/27 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 6/28 and 1 acquired;
The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, spiked 54% to 28.62, hitting a 10-month high. Extreme moves in the so-called market fear gauge could raise the odds of at least a short-term market bottom.
But it doesn't have to happen right away and it doesn't have to last thus questions linger:
- There's a lot of uncertainty right now regarding a sector rally and which will lead or lag.
- Any action is likely to be headline driven.
- How dangerous is the omicron Covid variant?
- Governments' decisions on travel bans and restrictions
- Whether or not people adjust their behavior once again.
- A major outbreak could trigger new government and business shutdowns, roiling supply chains once again and sending commodity prices on a longer slide. <IBD>
- Perhaps all these fears are overdone?
Note: Moderna (MRNA +$32.42 or +9.97$ pre-open) says new vaccine for Omicron may be ready in early 2022; while Pfizer (PFE) is up +0.65 or 1.20% in pre-open along with BioNTech (BNTX) +$17.00 or +4.89% before the open.
If you didn’t remember what happen at Friday night’s close, you won’t be prepared for today’s session:
Friday’s evening’s recap: ““Nu” or “Omicron” Covid variant fears explode the sector. investors should be thinking more about paring exposure rather than portfolio additions after a big defecate following a two (2) session rally that followed thirteen (13) down sector sessions.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12200
Q4: November, 1 holiday 5 positive and 14 negative close to date
- October, 8 positive and 13 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Maintaining SELL with a Pump or No Promote:
Biostage (BSTG) closed up Friday +$0.10 with 100 shares traded after Wednesday closed flat with 15 shares traded after Tuesday’s flat with 0 shares traded, Monday’s -$0.30 with 1,141 and last Friday’s -$0.39 with 8.625 shares traded.
- Earnings release: Biostage (BSTG) had a net loss of -$800 K, or -$0.80, a $200 K decrease in grant income and a cash position of $2 m—still with NO clinical trial with a 2-year-old IND. Add in some legal negligence ... where its insurance carrier will NOT cover the terminal death suit filed.
What’s there to invest in – the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over its recent insurance company rejection of legal expense/costs of a terminal death suit against the company?
- For a company with NO clinical trial, an a one (1) and a half year approved IND, four (4) employees and NO CRO <clinical research organization> initiation. It’s fake since you can’t make it …
Probabilities versus aftermarket/pre-open share pricing indication moves:
Hammered on Friday … BUY:
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$0.27 to $188.53 with a positive +$1.37 or +0.73% aftermarket indication.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.84 to $80.92 with a positive +$0.72 or +0.91% pre-open indication.
Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) dropped -$1.04 to $15.38 after an oversubscribed offering with a positive +$0.57 or +$3.71% pre-open indication.
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up +$2.23 to $54.42 after Tuesday’s -$0.26 to $52.19, Monday’s -$3.52 to $52.45, Friday’s $55.97, Thursday’s $55.00 and last Wednesday’s $53.48 with a positive +$1.50 or +2.86% pre-open indication.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.71 to $29.05 with a positive +$0.33 or +1.14% aftermarket (Friday) indication.
Stung on Friday - SELL:
MiMedx (MDXG) closed down -$0.36 to $7.37 with a negative -$0.18 or -2.44% aftermarket (Friday) indication.
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.03 to $8.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.38 to $8.72 with a negative -$0.35 or -4.03% aftermarket (Friday) indication.
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.69 to $39.32 after Wednesday’s +$0.27 to $40.01 with a negative -$0.62 or -1.58% pre-open indication.
Verastem (VSTM) closed down -$0.12 to $2.68 and has a negative -$0.02 or -0.75% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: Is this the start of a significant market slide, the continuation of recent whipsaw action or will stocks quickly rebound?
The current uncertainty makes it difficult to consider a sustainable sector rally. Investors should be maintaining thus, playing defense rather than offense until conditions clearly improve.
More clarity on the new omicron variant is needed.
I want to see the open and a few hours before I would be willing to take any new share pricing risk.
Investors should review their holdings and ditch losers. If you got caught out in Friday's losses, don't continue to freeze.
Don't necessarily be in a rush to sell; wait for some strength, then consider triggering tax losses … early.
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
