December 17, 2021 5:17pm
An expected rise to the upside having been stripped of value on Thursday from a repository of oversold with achievable upside; love those algorithms - today as differentiated from others
Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs, 0 MISS
News: Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) the FDA has granted accelerated approval of a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for Oxbryta® (voxelotor) tablets for the treatment of sickle cell disease (SCD) in children ages 4 to less than 12 years. This approval expands the previously approved use of Oxbryta to treat SCD in patients ages 12 years and older in the United States.
Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price movements and targets.
Week in review …
The Dow closed DOWN -532.20 points (-1.48%); the S&P closed DOWN -48.03 points (-1.03%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -10.75 points (-0.07%)
Quadruple witching Fridays are always volatile …
Indexes came under pressure again in Friday’s volatile session amid worries about tighter monetary policy and the ongoing pandemic.
A negative week with the Nasdaq being the biggest loser declining -3%, while the Dow fell -1.7% and the S&P 500 slipped 1.9%.
Moves in the Cboe Volatility Index VIX, 5.20%, or VIX, were relatively subdued, considering the market’s intraday ructions. The VIX, which is used to express market expectations for moves in the S&P 500 in the coming 30-day period, was up by around 1%. The index tends to move inversely with stock moves.
Note: Big weekly winners, Moderna (MRNA +12.78%), BioNTech (BNTX +1.27%) while losers, Pfizer (PFE -2.89%) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -2.76%) fell today after a CDC ruling.
- PFE pushed back plans to seek authorization of its Covid-19 vaccine in children between 6 months and under 5 years of age due to a weaker-than-expected immune response.
- The CDC said there were 54 cases of people developing blood clots and showing low blood platelet levels due to the JNJ vaccine.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …
- Friday opened negative at 8 ups/125 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, jumped positive at 10:30 a.m. at 30/8, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 30/13, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 27 up/7 downs and 1 acquired;
- Thursday opened positive at 20 ups/13 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 9/2, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 3 up/30 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Wednesday opened negative at 9 ups/24 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 21/12, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 27 up/6 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened negative at 7 ups/26 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 7 up/27 downs and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened positive at 21 ups/12 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped negative at 11 a.m. at 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired, the mid-day was negative at 11/22, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 16/15, 3 flats, and 1 acquired;
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Quadruple Witching Friday. Barely any aftermarket share pricing movement” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12231
Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs: <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.37), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.54) Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$9.69), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$7.13) Maintaining SELL into strength: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$13.64), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6.27) and 0 MISS:
Key Metric - volume
Sector volume LOW with 24 of the 27-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with INCREASED volume of 5 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
Note: Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.37 on Friday with 5,734 shares traded after Thursday’s flat with 371 shares traded after Wednesday’s flat with 3,281 shares traded after Tuesday’s flat with 500 shares traded after Monday’s 0 shares traded. Has he, David Green, the new interim CEO and chairman CONDONED the “pump and promote”?
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 27):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$13.64 after Thursday’s -$7.68, Wednesday’s +$7.03 and Tuesday’s +$1.02),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$9.69 after Thursday’s -$6.18, Wednesday’s +$5.33, Tuesday’s -$0.69 and Monday’s +$12.77),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$7.13 after Thursday’s -$3.04, Wednesday’s +$4.50, Tuesday’s +$1.19 and Monday’s -$0.18),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6.27 after Thursday’s -$2.41, Wednesday’s +$4.28, Tuesday’s +$1.59 and Monday’s -$0.63),
- Vericel (VCEL +$5.26),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.99 after Thursday’s -$3.10, Wednesday’s +$1.30, Tuesday’s +$2.12 and Monday’s +$1.73),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$3.55 after Thursday’s -$1.76, Wednesday’s +$1.62, Tuesday’s -$1.49),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.90),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.55),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.39)
Hammered in today’s market (7 of 7):
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.00 after Thursday’s -$1.50, Wednesday’s -$4.00, Tuesday’s -$5.50 and Monday’s -$1.50),
- Biostage (BSTG -$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.00 and Wednesday’s -$0.00, Tuesday and Monday’s -$0.00),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.27),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.03),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03 after Thursday’s +$0.01),
- Athersys (ATHX -$0.01),
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.0063),
- 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB closed up +2.71% and XBI closed up +4.78%
- Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.99% and XBI closed down -2.61%
- Wednesday, the IBB closed up +2.21% and XBI closed up +4.25%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.50% and XBI closed down -1.83%
- Monday the IBB closed up +1.47% and XBI closed up +0.81%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was up +1 points or +.86% at 21.57
- Thursday was up +1.28 points or +6.64% at 20.57
- Wednesday was down -2.60 points or -11.88% at 19.29
- Friday was up +1.58 points or +7.78% at 21.89
- Monday was up +1.62 points or + 8.67% at 20.31
December, the second month of Q4/21:
Friday closed positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 3 incliners, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed positive with 27 incliners, 6 decliners 1 flat and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 acquired
Monday (12/13) closed positive with 16 incliner, 15 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired
Friday closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 0 incliners, 33 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 7 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed positive with 29 incliner, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Monday (12/6) closed positive with 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 acquired
Friday closed negative with 1 incliner, 31 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Thursday closed positive with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 acquired
Wednesday (12/1) closed negative with 4 incliners, 29 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: An oversold bounce …
Volatility (the primary factor in our sector) finds new heights over one (1) session.
Good gains and small losses by the close benefiting from Thursday’s oversold positions.
Sector stocks recovered after Thursday spilled to the downside, having popped to the upside on Wednesday after being sold-off Tuesday; but, comes next week …?
Friday’s trading action was marked by jumps in share pricing by Intellia therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and fate Therapeutics (FATE) which always seem to come-back as ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.00), Biostage (BSTG -$0.37), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.23) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.012) feel unloved while Athersys (ATHX) and Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) are barely hanging in the Nasdaq.
Despite gains for the sector last week, direction is still unclear. But historically, December has been a strong month for the stock market.
Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.