January 4, 2022 4:53pm
What did I warn of this a.m., “Beware the upcoming algorithmic momentum road blocks” Also, the economics are OFF <see below>
The Biostage Chronicles: the “pump and promote” is back and forth as it jumps +$1.30, dives to +$0.72 and drops to +$0.02 with 1,626 shares traded; an approve two (2) year old IND with NO clinicals and a top-heavy management team of five (5) big titles, a terminal and wrongfull death suit whose coverage/reimbursement was negated after filing document negligence – what is there to invest in – their “Sword of Damocles” hanging over their company?
Pre-open Indication results: 3 HITs and 5 MISS
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price movements and targets.
Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?
The Dow closed UP +214.59 points (+0.59%); the S&P closed DOWN -3.02 points (-0.06%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -210.08 points (-1.33%)
Economic data Docket: Demand for workers in the U.S. remained historically elevated in November, with job openings holding near an all-time high and the number of individuals quitting their jobs reaching a record amid the ongoing pandemic. Vacancies totaled 10.562 million in November, according to the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) released Tuesday. This comes is slightly lower than the 11.091 million in October, based on the government's revised print for the month. Consensus economists were looking for job openings to rise to 11.079 million in November,
- The Institute for Supply Management reported at 10 a.m. ET that its index of manufacturing activity fell to 58.7 in December from 61.1 in November. Economists expect a slowdown in growth due to supply-chain issues.
- IHS Markit this morning downgraded its U.S. GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 4.1% for 2022. The firm's economists cited a temporary weakening in consumer spending in businesses vulnerable to a winter wave of Covid infections. It also saw inventory investment in 2021 that takes away from 2022.
- The economists also raised their consumer inflation forecast from 3.7% to 4.2%. "Beyond disruptions to travel and entertainment, the omicron strain may pose wider risks to supply chains and hence inflation."
Dow was up as the Nasdaq and S&P dived after the stock market weakened at midday Tuesday as investors gear up for interest rate hikes from the Fed by mid-year to curb high inflation. U.S. Treasury yields rose for a second trading day.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “first week’s a joy ride enhanced by a January Effect. Beware the upcoming algorithmic momentum roadblocks.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12241
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Tuesday opened negative at 4 up/30 downs and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/29 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 29/5 and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened positive at 16 up/13 downs, 5 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 27/5, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 32/0, 2 flats, and 1 acquired;
Pre-open indication results: 3 Hits < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.99), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.32), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.02), > 5 MISS < AxoGen (AXGN +$0.46), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.02), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.23), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$5.45), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$4.34)
Editas Medicine (EDIT) hit a 52-week low of $25.64
- Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with WEAK volume of 8 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Sector volume was WEAK with 8 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with NADA volume of 0 of 0-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday the IBB closed down -2.68% and XBI closed down -3.47%
- Monday the IBB closed down -0.16% and XBI closed up +3.09%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was up +0.26 points or +1.57% at 16.86
- Monday was down -0.65 points or -3.77% at 16.57
Jumping with share pricing momentum (5 of 5):
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.46),
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.149
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.02),
- Pluristem (PSTI +$0.02),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.01),
Hammered in today’s market (10 of 29) – yesterday’s heroes are down and, in the mud, today:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.68 after Monday’s +$4.33),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.99 after Monday’s +$3.46),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$5.45),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$4.34 after Monday’s +$1.77),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.25 after Monday’s +$1.61),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.57),
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.50),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.38 after Monday’s +$1.05),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.24 after Monday’s +$2.17)
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.23 after Monday’s +$1.08),
- 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
- Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 acquired
- Monday closed positive with 32 incliners, 0 decliners and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: Algorithms are punishing the cell and gene therapy stocks as valuations “creeped” up.
As I stated this a.m., “I am NOT changing my position, “Brace for more choppiness heading into the start of the year.”
- The volatile nature of cell, gene and biotech stocks is a double-edged sword, meaning these stocks can produce gains but, sustainability or lack thereof has been a factor through 2021 that I believe will continue into 2022.
- Boom or bust as many miss end-points incurring weighty losses if a drug trial fails to perform or comes to market without any following.
- Risks are also due to the possibility that many products under development may never make it to market. Share pricings were NOT maintained in 2021, begetting dropping of many company’s pricings as months wore on.
- Early January 2022 can deliver some gains but also generate algorithmic based losses.
I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors
Reiterating from last year, 2021, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.