January 7, 2022 4:57pm
More upon more volatility infected by fed policy while I continue to look for an investible bottom
Pre-open Indication results: 4 HITs and 8 MISS <some by pennies>
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price movements and targets.
Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?
The week in review …
The Dow closed DOWN -4.81 points (-0.01%); the S&P closed down -19.02 points (-0.41%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -144.96 points (-0.96%)
U.S. stocks and Treasury were mixed in choppy trading on Friday as investors digested payroll data and its potential impact of the Fed’s policy in the final session of an already rollercoaster first trading week of the year.
Economic data Docket: The Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in December than expected. The nonfarm payrolls report showed an increase of 199,000 in December, though economists had expected growth of 422,000.
- While the headline number disappointed, there were some things in this jobs report that pointed to an improving economic picture and higher inflation. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.6%, above expectations. And the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, the lowest level since Feb 2020 and well below the 4.1% expected. <CNBC>
"Today’s report should be eye-opening for the Fed as tight labor conditions are only going to exacerbate the building inflation problem," Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management in Minneapolis, said. "It would be surprising if the Fed is not contemplating a faster removal of policy accommodation at the January meeting." <Reuters>
The Nasdaq fell -1.4.5% its worst week since February 2021in the first five trading days of 2022. The S&P 500 is off by 1.8%, while the Dow is down only 0.29% as investors rotated into some value stocks amid the rise in rates.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “will there be a finger that fits in this leaking and spiraling dyke, Hans Brinker where are you? I’d be BUYING some of the 52-week cell and gene therapy sector lows after the sector sunk, again.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12247
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Friday opened positive at 27 up/4 downs, 3 flats and 1 acquired, quickly dived (10 a.m.) to 16/17, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at13/21 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Thursday opened negative at 15 up/17 downs, 2 flats and 1 acquired, quickly dived (10 a.m.) to 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/22, 3 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 8/22, 4 flats and 1 acquired;
- Wednesday opened negative at 12 up/21 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/31 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened negative at 4 up/30 downs and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/29 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 29/5 and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened positive at 16 up/13 downs, 5 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 27/5, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 32/0, 2 flats, and 1 acquired;
Pre-open indication results: 4 Hits < Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.73), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.22), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.48), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO $0.00)> 8 MISS < Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.05), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.03), AxoGen (AXGN -$0.86), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.04), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.10), Ultragenyx (RARE -$5.60), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.87), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.03)>
- Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume LOW with 5 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 4 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume MODERATE with 10 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday - Sector volume was WEAK with 2 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume INCREASED with 15 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday - Sector volume was WEAK with 2 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 8 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday - Sector volume was WEAK with 8 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with NADA volume of 0 of 0-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday the IBB closed down -1.31% and XBI closed down -2.17%
- Thursday the IBB closed down -0.06% and XBI closed up +0.02%
- Wednesday the IBB closed down -3.64% and XBI closed down -4.84%
- Tuesday the IBB closed down -2.68% and XBI closed down -3.47%
- Monday the IBB closed down -0.16% and XBI closed up +3.09%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -0.89 points or -4.54% at 18.72
- Thursday was down -0.12 points or -0.61% at 19.61
- Wednesday was up +2.49 points or +14.73% at 19.14
- Tuesday was up +0.26 points or +1.57% at 16.86
- Monday was down -0.65 points or -3.77% at 16.57
Jumping with share pricing momentum (7 of 7):
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.50 after Thursday’s -$3.00, Wednesday’s +$7.50, Tuesday -$1.50 and Monday’s $0.00),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.17 after Thursday’s +$1.22, Wednesday’s -$10.19 and Tuesday’s -$5.45),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.73 after Thursday’s -$0.19, Wednesday’s -$1.80, Tuesday’s -$1.23 and Monday’s +$1.08),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.48 after Thursday’s -$1.83, Wednesday’s -$4.24, Tuesday’s -$5.99 and Monday’s +$3.46),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.22 after Thursday’s +$0.74, Wednesday’s -$1.66),
- Biostage (BSTG +$0.03 with 300 shares traded),
- Pluristem (PSTI +$0.01),
Hammered in today’s market (10 of 26) – yesterday’s heroes are down and, in the mud, today:
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$5.60 after Thursday’s -$4.17, Wednesday’s +$0.37),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.87 after Thursday’s -$4.09, Wednesday’s -$10.14, Tuesday’s -$8.68 and Monday’s +$4.33),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.96),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.37 after Thursday’s -$0.59, Wednesday’s -$442.93, Tuesday’s -$1.57),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.07 after Thursday’s -$2.48, Wednesday’s -$4.04, Tuesday’s -$4.34 and Monday’s +$1.77),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.99 after Thursday’s +$3.58, Wednesday’s -$2.76, Tuesday’s -$1.38 and Monday’s +$1.05),
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.96 after Thursday’s -$0.15),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.86 after Thursday’s +$0.56),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.56 after Thursday’s +$0.49),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.39 after Thursday’s -$0.16, Wednesday’s -$2.34, Tuesday’s -$2.25 and Monday’s +$1.61),
- 1- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGM)) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
- Friday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 22 decliners, 4 flats and 1 acquired
- Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 acquired
- Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 acquired
- Monday closed positive with 32 incliners, 0 decliners and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: Nothing seemed to work, Friday … I actually went with my personal feelings and did NOT respond to my own intellectual leanings or beliefs.
I FELT that the 52-week lows could be bought today – maybe, I was early but, that’s probably to reassure my ego.
Algorithms, hedge funds and traders continue to punish the cell and gene therapy stocks as valuations “creeped” up.
As I stated yesterday, “I am NOT changing my position, “Brace for more choppiness heading into the start of the year.”
- The volatile nature of cell, gene and biotech stocks is a double-edged sword, meaning these stocks can produce gains but, sustainability or lack thereof has been a factor through 2021 that I believe will continue into 2022.
- Boom or bust as many miss end-points incurring weighty losses if a drug trial fails to perform or comes to market without any following.
- Risks are also due to the possibility that many products under development may never make it to market. Share pricings were NOT maintained in 2021, begetting dropping of many company’s pricings as months wore on.
- Early January 2022 can deliver some gains but also generate algorithmic based losses.
Reiterating from last year, 2021, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.