January 14, 2022 5:05pm
Markets are closed on Monday’s public holiday in honor of Martin Luther King
Pre-open Indication results: 5 HITs, 3 MISS
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor then a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price movements and targets.
Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?
The week in review …
The Dow closed DOWN -201.81 points (-0.56%); the S&P closed UP +3.82 points (+0.08%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +86.94 points (+0.59%)
The Nasdaq and S&P regained lost ground erased losses while Dow deepened losses Friday.
The omicron variant was in full swing in December, dampening some consumer spending. Sales soared 16.9% for the full 2021. Consumer demand swelled last year as the economy tried to normalize from the pandemic. <IBD>
- Also, “higher prices, empty shelves, consumers sick from omicron, and holiday shopping pulled forward, retail activity declined even more than expected.”
Economic Data Docket: retail sales were down 1.9% in December, a worse reading than the 0.1% drop expected by economists. January’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan came in lower than expected as Americans reported higher long-term inflation expectations.
- Business inventories for November came in higher than expected, but industrial production disappointed, declining 0.1% compared to a projected 0.2% gain.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the story of the oversold, experience the pain to embrace the gain. Following a very weak Thursday aftermarket and a month’s toll of 1 neutral 6 negative and 2 positive closes” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12258
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Friday opened negative at 6 up/26 downs, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 28/4, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
- Thursday opened positive at 18 up/15 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Wednesday opened negative at 10 up/24 downs and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 6/28 and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened negative at 9 up/22 downs, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 25/8, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 22/11, 1 flat, and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened negative at 2 up/31 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a neutral close of 16/16, 2 flats, and 1 acquired;
Pre-open indication results: 5 Hits < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.00), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.04), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.08), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.95), Mesoblast (MESO -$006)> 3 MISS < Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.23), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +1.37), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +2.02),
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Question, Is the “pimp/pump and promote” in full swing with the shares depreciating -$0.32 after traveling +$0.16, +$0.19 -$0.08 -$0.10 to -$0.32 to $0.00 with 13,368 shares traded after Thursday’s +$0.02 with 700 shares traded to +$0.78 to +$0.93 to +$0.77 to +$0.28 with 31,551 shares traded <3-month average = 2,728 shares>, Wednesday’s 44,200 shares traded?
- Just another example of a “House of Cards” – just a game of “fake it because they can’t make it? Overhang of non-registered PPM shares is also a factor beyond the terminal and wrongful death suit which their insurance company refused to cover or reimburse which hinders indemnification of a partner and management’s personal liabilities?
52-week lows experiences today:
- XBI hit a 52-week low of 96.76
- IBB hit a 52-week low of 136.44
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) hit a 52-week low of $68.39
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGM)) hit a 52-week low of $6.08
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) hit a 52-week low of $1.56
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) hit a 52-week low of $7.17
- Solid BioSciences (SLDB) hit a 52-week low of $1.39
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) hit a 52-week low of $21.49
- Verastem Oncology (VSTM) hit a 52-week low of $1.73
- Fate therapeutics (FATE) hit a 52-week low of $41.14
Friday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 10 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 3 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday the IBB closed up +0.65% and XBI closed up +2.44%
- Thursday the IBB closed down -2.73% and XBI closed down -2.49%
- Wednesday the IBB closed down -1.11% and XBI closed down -3.17%
- Tuesday the IBB closed up +0.96% and XBI closed up +0.73%
- Monday the IBB closed up +1.15% and XBI closed up +0.20%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -1.12 points or -5.51% at 19.19
- Thursday was up +2.75 points or +15.61% at 20.34
- Wednesday was down -0.79 points or -4.29% at 17.62
- Tuesday was down -0.99 points or -5.10% at 18.41
- Monday was up +0.61 points or +3.25% at 19.37
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.16 after Thursday’s -$1.32, Wednesday’s -$1.55, Tuesday’s -$0.13 and Monday’s -$0.69),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.02 after Thursday’s -$8.61, Wednesday’s -$7.28, Tuesday’s +$1.01 and Monday’s -$1.51),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.38),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.37 after Thursday’s -$3.46, Wednesday’s -$2.85, Tuesday’s +$3.62 after Monday’s +$1.43),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.26 after Thursday’s -$1.43, Wednesday’s -$1.07, Tuesday’s +$1.06 and Monday’s +$0.54),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.08 after Thursday’s -$2.85 and Wednesday’s -$2.49),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.95 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s +$0.50 and Tuesday’s +$0.84),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.82),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.64 after Thursday’s -$0.48),
Hammered in today’s market (4 of 4):
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.06),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.04 after Thursday’s -$0.43),
- Solid biosciences (SLDB -$0.01),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.005),
- 2 – Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
- Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 4 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
- Thursday closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 acquired
- Tuesday closed positive with 22 incliners, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Monday (1/10) closed neutral with 16 incliners, 16 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
- Friday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 22 decliners, 4 flats and 1 acquired
- Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 acquired
- Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 acquired
- Monday (1/3) closed positive with 32 incliners, 0 decliners and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: January has been a rough month for the cell and gene therapy sector with 1, neutral, 6 negative and 3 positive closes.
Back and forth rolls the sector to extremes as the sector bounces back from the opening of 6 ups to close with 28 ups.
Trust, conviction is lacking as Q4 and end-of-year earnings are about to be made aware of.
As I stated, “After being oversold, when will the overbought syndrome” materialized in my view on Friday.
There are clear winners in the week – Pluristem (PSTI) and loser Mesoblast (MESO) as we compete the week.
Luckily, Monday is a holiday …
Algorithms, hedge funds and traders continue to punish the cell and gene therapy stocks as valuations “creeped” up.
- Early January 2022 can deliver some gains but also generate algorithmic based losses.
Reiterating from last year, 2021, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”
WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.