January 21, 2022 5:14pm

Another low for this week with an option expiration Friday

Pre-open Indication results: 1 HIT, 5 Probability MISSES and 1 Volatility PUMP

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor then a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price movements and targets.

Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?

The week in review …

The Dow closed DOWN -450.02 points (-1.30%); the S&P closed DOWN -84.79 points (-1.89%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -385.10 points (-2.72%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks this month have often sold off into the close …

  • The Nasdaq dropped on Friday, dragging the cell and gene therapy sector into continuous correction territory.
  • The Nasdaq is down more than 7% since Monday, track for its worst week since October 2020.
  • The Nasdaq is also off to its worst start to the year, through the first 14 trading days, since 2008,
  • The Nasdaq, has fallen more than 14.25% from a November all-time high.

The Russell 2000 is on track for its worst week since June 2020. The index fell 1.4%.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “waiting for the bottom achievement after the past week’s fizzles. Yesterday’s bounce ended with another sharp market reversal even as various indicators suggest the sector is oversold.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12266

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday opened negative at 15 up/16 downs, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/27 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 27 up/6 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/23, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 20 up/13 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, slipped negative at the mid-day at 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/25 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 4 up/29 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/31 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 2/31, 1 flat, and 1 acquired;
  • Monday was a holiday,

 

Pre-open indication results: 1 Hits < bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.31)> 6 Miss <as I stated they were probabilities - Precigen (PGEN -$0.15), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.90), AxoGen (AXGN -$0.28), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.25), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.50) –and Maintaining SELL: Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.25)

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: the “pimp/pump and promote” in full swing again with the shares appreciating +$0.25 with 4,500 shares traded after Thursday’s +$0.20 with 3,941 shares traded after Wednesday’s +$0.25 1,516 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.00 with 8,288 shares trading.

  • WHO is BUYING these shares of a company with a 2-year-old IND and NO clinical trial initiation?
  • Just another example of a “House of Cards” – just a game of “fake it because they can’t make it?
  • Overhang of non-registered PPM shares is also a factor beyond the terminal and wrongful death suit which their insurance company refused to cover or reimburse which hinders indemnification of a partner and management’s personal liabilities?

 

52-week lows experiences today:

  • IBB hit a 52-week low of 129.05
  • XBI hit a 52-week low of 90.74
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) hit a 52-week low of $6.60
  • Verastem (VSTM) hit a 52-week low of $1.48
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) hit a 52-week low of $25.02
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) hit a 52-week low of $1.61
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) hit a 52-week low of $63.15
  • Precigen (PGEN) hit a 52-week low of $2.93
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) hit a 52-week low of $5.85
  • Solid BioSciences (SLDB) hit a 52-week low of $1.31
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) hit a 52-week low of $1.52
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) hit a 52-week low of $37.50
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) hit a 52-week low of $18.45
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) hit a 52-week low of $18.33

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was HIGH with 3 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 14 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 10 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 10 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 2 of 2-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 12 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday was a holiday,

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday the IBB closed down -1.51% and XBI closed down -2.11%
  • Thursday the IBB closed down -0.90% and XBI closed down -1.64%
  • Wednesday the IBB closed down -1.22% and XBI closed down -0.92%
  • Tuesday the IBB closed down -3.95% and XBI closed down -5.94%
  • Monday was a holiday  

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +3.26 points or +12.74% at 28.85
  • Thursday was up +1.74 points or +7.30% at 25.59
  • Wednesday was up +1.01 points or 4.43% at 23.80
  • Tuesday was up +3.60 points or +18.76% at 22.79
  • Monday was a holiday,

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (4 of 4):

  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.31 after Thursday’s -$0.62 and Wednesday’s -$0.36),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.25 after Thursday’s +$0.20 and Wednesday’s +$0.25 – “pumped and pimped”),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.02),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 30):

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$4.00 after Thursday’s +$2.00, Wednesday’s -$3.50 and Tuesday’s -$34.00),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.90),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.80 after Thursday’s +$2.22, Wednesday’s -$0.92 and Tuesday’s -$4.38 post Monday’s holiday),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.75 after Thursday’s +$0.11, Wednesday’s -$0.86 and Tuesday’s -$2.72),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.15 after Thursday’s -$1.01, Wednesday’s -$1.31 and Tuesday’s -$2.66),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.10 after Thursday’s -$1.05, Wednesday’s -$2.13 and Tuesday’s -$5.57),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.64 after Thursday’s -$1.14),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.61 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s -$0.64 and Tuesday’s -$2.85),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.56 after Thursday’s +$0.01),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.50 after Thursday’s -$0.76),

Closing Flat:

  • 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

January, Q1/2022:

  • Friday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 acquired
  • Thursday closed negative with 9 incliners, 254 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
  • Wednesday closed negative with 9 incliners, 25 decliners and 1 acquired
  • Tuesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 31 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
  • Monday (1/17) was a holiday

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I have kept listing the 52-week lows and they have gone lower; thus, I am stuck when the oversold get recognized sitting on a royal flush.

Watch the cell and gene therapy sector for signs of support and accumulation – it’s coming (maybe) next week.

I will admit that “Trust, conviction is lacking as Q4 and end-of-year earnings are about to be made aware of” more than even I thought.

Algorithms, hedge funds and traders continue to punish the cell and gene therapy stocks as valuations “creeped” up.

  • Early January 2022 can deliver some gains but also generate algorithmic based losses.

Reiterating from last year, 2021, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.