February 9, 2022 7:45am
A weak aftermarket leads Wednesday to Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Q4 and FY21 earnings on Thursday
Pre-open indications: 3 BUYs, 2 SELLs, 2 SELLs into Strength and 1 PUMP/PROMOTE
What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Only the facts … I ask questions and note the probabilities
Dow futures are UP +0.62% (+216 points), S&P futures are UP +0.84% (+38 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +1.23% (+181 points)
U.S. stock futures rose in pre-open trading on Wednesday,
European stocks advanced with the pan-European Stoxx 600 adding 1%,
Asia-Pacific stocks rose with stocks in Hong Kong leading gains along with Japan, South Korea and Australia
Henry’omics:
A handful of strong corporate earnings boosted sentiment on Tuesday, after a slow start to the week with more today, Wednesday.
The stock market comes-off a solid session Tuesday; however, the major indexes remain within a relatively narrow range, between last week's highs and lows.
It's positive to see the indexes, especially the Nasdaq, gain ground given the spike in Treasury yields over the past few days.
But sometimes the market will take seemingly bad news in stride until it doesn't. Thursday's CPI inflation report looms large. <IBD>
Earnings’ Note and Question: Pfizer (PFE) stock fell -2.8%. Did Investors Misunderstand the Revenue Guidance? Pfizer shares dropped sharply on Tuesday after the company’s 2022 sales guidance appeared to fall short of expectations. The guidance that PFE presented, doesn’t take into account future sales of PFE’s Covid-19 vaccine and antiviral, but only sales already made. The number will likely climb upward as the year progresses, suggesting that the selloff on Tuesday may have been based on a misunderstanding. <Barron’s>
If you didn’t remember what happen at Tuesday’s close, you won’t be prepared for today’s session,
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “we had a pitcher in this session, the pitcher's nick-name – Algorithm. Another Abbott and Costello rendering fits with this a.m.’s post although weak” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12292
Ebb and flow –
- February stats: 3 negative and 3 positive closes
- January stats: 1 holiday, 1 neutral, 13 negative and 6 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Probabilities/ Potentials pre-open share pricing indication moves:
SELL from BUY:
Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation (AGTC) closed up again +$0.17 to $2.36 after Monday’s +$0.08 to $2.19 and has a negative -$0.02 or -0.85% pre-open indication AGTC never seems to keep its upside sustained, another factor is earnings due on Monday, 2/14 – news has helped but, an offering is needed SOON.
BUY:
Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$4.18 to $93.25 after Monday’s +$1.47 to $97.43, Friday’s +$1.43 to $95.96, Thursday’s $94.53, Wednesday’s $95.39 and last Tuesday’s $99.80 with a positive +$0.19 or +0.20% pre-open
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$1.88 to $17.44 after Monday’s +$0.59 to $19.32, Friday’s +$0.76 to $18.73, Thursday’s $17.97 and last Wednesday’s $18.22 with a positive +$0.01 or +0.06% pre-open indication
SELL:
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed down -$0.12 to $39.55 with a negative -$0.45 or -1.14% pre-open indication.
SELL into Strength:
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up again +$0.22 to $32.68 after Monday’s +$0.96 to $32.46, Friday’s +$0.43 to $31.50, Thursday’s $31.07 and last Wednesday’s $31.50 with NO pre-open indication
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up again +$0.25 to $44.15 after Monday’s +$1.88 to $43.90, Friday’s +$1.43 to $42.02, Thursday’s $40.59, Wednesday’s $40.22 and last Tuesday’s $40.69 with NO pre-open indication.
Maintaining BUY:
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.32 to $61.04 after Monday’s +$0.47 to $62.36, Friday’s $61.89, Thursday’s $60.40 and last Wednesday’s $62.12 with a positive +$1.46 or +2.39% pre-open indication.
Pimp/Pump and Promote:
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed up +$0.05 to $4.59 with 1,293 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.55 with 2,311 shares traded, Friday’s +$0.22 with 305 shares traded, Thursday’s flat (-$0.00) with 3 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.53 with 502 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.40 with 1,088 shares traded, Monday’s flat with 11 shares traded, Friday’s +$0.05 to $3.90 with 3,362 shares traded and last Thursday’s +$0.24 to $3.85 with 10,073 shares traded. WHO is BUYING these shares of a company with a 2-year-old IND, NO clinical trial initiation, a terminal death lawsuit overhang and a dwindling cash position overseen by a dubious management team with NO regard for U.S. investors?
The BOTTOM LINE: It's hard to stay engaged and watch stocks dive after a pop following a sprint.
The cell and gene therapy sector’s relative valuation metrics suggest earnings reports are about to hit and I believe, hard.
Earnings drove a lot of the market moves last week; will it drive us?
“Our” universe has had a whipsaw month to date and it could continue uncomfortably as earnings’ season begins.
- Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliners, 19 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Monday (2/7) closed positive with 29 incliners, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Friday closed positive with 30 incliners, 4 decliners and 1 acquired
- Thursday closed negative with 5 incliners, 27 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
- Wednesday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 acquired
- Tuesday (2/1) closed positive with 26 incliners, 7 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Investors have to recognize what kind of market we are in – VOLATILE with LOW VOLUME. Which gives us reasons to be cautious.
It's not a great time to be adding exposure i.e., risk, until earnings offer a better signal. Beaten-down stocks will have rebounds but, what is sustainable, while sector stocks are flashing buy signals.
Pay attention to volatility, most times the effect of dramatic upside moves after multiple downsides weekly “plays” could end-up being BUYs – in my view.
Earnings’ reporting:
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) – 2/10, Thursday
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2/10, Thursday
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) Monday, 2/14
- AxoGen AXGN) – 2/22, Tuesday
Investors should focus on forward-looking guidance, last year’s operating losses i.e., spending and cash positions or runways!
I am NOT changing my position, “Brace for more choppiness as we move further into the month and the beginning of Q1/22 waiting for Q4 and end-of-year numbers”.
- I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors
So, my bottom of the Bottom Line, Investors should be extremely cautious about adding any new exposure.
- RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
WHY do I keep reporting on Biostage (BSTG): I WAS there to experience what occurred and saw the decay of transparency and more; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider their investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in FATE, CRS, securities referred to in this publication.
