February 10, 2022 7:43am
A potential toxic combination as Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Q4 and FY21 report earnings with indications
Pre-open indications: 7 SELLs, and 1 PUMP/PROMOTE
What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Only the facts … I ask questions and note the probabilities
Dow futures are UP +0.22% (+77 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.02% (-1 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.11% (-17 points)
U.S. stock futures were mixed and slipping early Thursday morning of ahead of key inflation data
European stocks were cautious after a deluge of corporate earnings, while global investors await the latest reading on U.S. inflation.
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed awaiting the release of U.S. consumer inflation data.
Henry’omics:
Wednesday, the Nasdaq jumped for a second day leading markets higher and helping them recover some losses from the January sell-off,
Economic Data Docket: Consumer Price Index report, which is expected to show headline inflation for January at the highest pace since 1982. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to rise by 0.4%, or 7.2% year-over-year.
If you didn’t remember what happen at Wednesday’s close, you won’t be prepared for today’s session,
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “riding the sector merry-go-round to our portfolio favor today” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12294
Ebb and flow –
- February stats: 3 negative and 4 positive closes
- January stats: 1 holiday, 1 neutral, 13 negative and 6 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
Probabilities/ Potentials pre-open share pricing indication moves:
Maintaining SELL:
Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation (AGTC) closed up again +$0.16 to $2.52 after Tuesday’s +$0.17 to $2.36, Monday’s +$0.08 to $2.19 and has a negative -$0.02 or -0.79% pre-open indication AGTC never seems to keep its upside sustained, another factor is earnings are due on Monday, 2/14 – news has helped but, an offering is needed SOON.
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$0.33 to $7.36 after Tuesday’s $7.03 and Monday’s $7.14 and last Friday’s $.81 following the previous Thursday’s $6.85 with a negative -$0.08 or -1.10% pre-open indication
SELL from BUY:
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$4.00 to $65.04 after Tuesday’s -$1.32 to $61.04, Monday’s +$0.47 to $62.36, Friday’s $61.89 and last Thursday’s $60.40 with a positive +0.96 or +1.48% pre-open indication.
Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$4.57 to $97.82 after Tuesday’s -$4.18 to $93.25, Monday’s +$1.47 to $97.43, Friday’s +$1.43 to $95.96 and last Thursday’s $94.53, with a negative -$0.19 or -0.19% pre-open
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$1.06 to $18.50 after Tuesday’s -$1.88 to $17.44, Monday’s +$0.59 to $19.32, Friday’s +$0.76 to $18.73, and last Thursday’s $17.97 with a negative -$0.20 or -0.08% pre-open indication
Maintaining SELL into Strength:
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up again +$1.34 to $34.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.22 to $32.68, Monday’s +$0.96 to $32.46, Friday’s +$0.43 to $31.50 and last Thursday’s $31.07 with a positive +$0.52 or +1.53% pre-open indication
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$1.56 to $45.71 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 to $44.15, Monday’s +$1.88 to $43.90, Friday’s +$1.43 to $42.02 and last Thursday’s $40.59, with a negative -$0.69 or -1.51% pre-open indication.
Pimp/Pump and Promote:
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed down -$0.61 with 4,030 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.05 to $4.59 with 1,293 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.55 with 2,311 shares traded, Friday’s +$0.22 with 305 shares traded, Thursday’s flat (-$0.00) with 3 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.53 with 502 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.40 with 1,088 shares traded, Monday’s flat with 11 shares traded, Friday’s +$0.05 to $3.90 with 3,362 shares traded and last Thursday’s +$0.24 to $3.85 with 10,073 shares traded.
- WHO is BUYING these shares of a company with a 2-year-old IND, NO clinical trial initiation, a terminal death lawsuit overhang and a dwindling cash position overseen? Also, by use of the pump/promote process; is BSTG preparing to register the outstanding private placement (PP) shares for a reverse to initiate an offering- they’re NOT going ANYWHERE without a cash inflow.
Earnings Indications today:
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$5.68 to $74.75 and has a negative -$0.02 or -0.03% pre-open indication,
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$3.76 to $151.40 with a positive +$0.90 or +0.59% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: I am getting more skittishness regarding earnings’ reporting and the volatility in trading that usually precedes and follows releases.
And then add in an inflation data release – the merry-go-round goes up and down round and round with the music playing.
Reiterating, “the cell and gene therapy sector’s relative valuation metrics suggest earnings reports are about to hit and I believe, hard.”
Earnings drove a lot of the market moves last week; will it drive us?
“Our” universe has had a whipsaw month to date and it could continue uncomfortably as earnings’ season begins.
- Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliner, 3 decliners and 1 acquired
- Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliners, 19 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Monday (2/7) closed positive with 29 incliners, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
- Friday closed positive with 30 incliners, 4 decliners and 1 acquired
- Thursday closed negative with 5 incliners, 27 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
- Wednesday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 acquired
- Tuesday (2/1) closed positive with 26 incliners, 7 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Investors have to recognize what kind of market we are in – VOLATILE with LOW VOLUME. Which gives us reasons to be cautious.
Earnings’ reporting:
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) – today
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – today
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) Monday, 2/14
- AxoGen AXGN) – 2/22, Tuesday, 2/22
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Thursday, 2/24
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Thursday, 2/24
Investors should focus on forward-looking guidance, last year’s operating losses i.e., spending and cash positions or runways!
I am NOT changing my position, “Brace for more choppiness as we move further into the month and the beginning of Q1/22 waiting for Q4 and end-of-year numbers”.
- I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors
So, my bottom of the Bottom Line, Investors should be extremely cautious about adding any new exposure.
- RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
WHY do I keep reporting on Biostage (BSTG): I WAS there to experience what occurred and saw the decay of transparency and more; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider their investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in FATE, CRS, securities referred to in this publication.
