March 8, 2022 4:56pm
The cell and gene therapy sector is a tricky investment, you have to watch the numbers and appreciate the facts of pricing and volume motions
Pre-open indications: 6 Hits and 2 Miss
News: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) stock gained +33.33% or +$1.31 to $5.24 on Tuesday after the gene therapy company “inked” a deal with Novartis (NVS) valued to $1.7 billion. NVS will pay $54 million upfront to license VYGR's novel adeno-associated virus (AAV) capsids for use with the gene therapies it's developing. There are several additional milestones included in the deal that would bring the total value up to $1.7 billion.
What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
The Bottom Line says it all succinctly …
Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read the facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -185.66 points (-0.57%); the S&P closed DOWN -30.47 points (-0.73%) while the Nasdaq closed down -35.41 points (-0.28%)
Henry’omics:
The Dow, Nasdaq reversed and S&P higher in afternoon trading to turn negative on Tuesday.
The market remained volatile and stocks began to pull back on reports that Russia's President Putin has signed a decree that bans the exports of key products and raw materials until Dec. 31 – as if we care.
“Rising prices for oil, gasoline, natural gas, and precious metals like nickel and palladium are fueling concerns about a slowdown in global growth amid surging inflation.” <CNBC>
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “will algorithms push an upside bounce response. Risk can be considered as bounces are due the oversold” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12331
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Tuesday opened negative at 6 up/21 downs, 1 flat, flipped positive at the mid-day at 33/3 and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 24/12 and 2 flats
Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits < Biostage (BSTG +$0.00), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.07), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.56), bluebird Bio (BLUE +$0.17), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.18), Vericel (VCEL -$1.11)> 2 Miss < Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU +$0.19), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.06)>
RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q4/21 and FY21 Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628 … (AGEN & VYGR) added
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works on Tuesday with 1,130 shares traded to close flat after Monday’s close +$0.29 with 399 shares traded after Friday closing down -$0.44 with 1,303 shares traded after Thursday as 487 shares traded moving the share price +$0.25 after Wednesday as 649 shares appeared pushing the share price +$0.34 after last Tuesday as 3,271 shares appear raising the share price +$0.59 to have it close -$0.04 with an additional 278 shares traded
- WHO is BUYING these shares of a company with a 3-year-old IND, NO clinical trial initiation, a terminal death lawsuit overhang and a dwindling cash position?
- By use of the pump/promote process; is BSTG preparing to register the outstanding private placement (PP) shares for a reverse to initiate an offering.
- BSTG is NOT going ANYWHERE without a cash inflow.
Key Metrics:
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 24-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 12-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.25% and XBI closed up +0.67%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -0.96 points or -2.63% at 35.45
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 24):
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.91 after Monday’s -$0.61)
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.18),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.71),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.85 after Monday’s +$0.22),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.15 after Monday’s +$2.01),
- Intellia therapeutics (NTLA +$0.79),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.79 after Monday’s +$0.35),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.26 after Monday’s +$0.09),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.22),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.19 after Monday’s +$0.12),
Hammered in today’s market (12 of 12):
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.11 after Monday’s -$1.76),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.00),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.72),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.36 after Monday’s -$0.36),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.34),
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$0.25 after Monday’s -$1.00),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.22 after Monday’s -$0.34),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.07),
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.06),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.05),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.01),
- Athersys (ATHX -$0.01),
March, Q1/2022:
Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 12 decliners and 2 flats
Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: As I wrote this a.m., “Bounce, baby, bounce after four (4) negative closes; some relief needed. Anything is wanted to signal a start of a new uptrend. I’d be “picking-up some equities.
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) reported a Q4 net income and a BIG Novartis (NVS) collaboration/investment – positive news helps sentiment which has suffered horribly.
Thursday through Monday’s deep dive follows Tuesday’s “bounce” take a small victory maybe the low could be in, but the sector may have to be tested again later this week.
From yesterday, “I had thought that February was going to mark the peak of declines. However, with respect to bluebird bio (BLUE) has lost more than 90% of its value over the past four years amid a series of delays, clinical setbacks and commercial struggles. Shares once worth more than $150 in March 2018 now trade at less than $5 apiece and fell another 13% on Monday following the company's financial warning. CFO loss headline reinforces downward pressures.”
Adding to the downside pressures is the patent issue post the U.S. patent office ruled the Broad Institute patent was “more” valid than UC Berkely.
There's a very high level of uncertainty … as the cell and gene therapy sector’s volume remain LOW.
Remember the adage, “It takes two to make a market"; that’s sellers and buyers.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”; risk to growth now takes center stage for how long separation of sentiment lasts and how deep the oversold dive.
Q4 and end-of-year earnings are “gamy” than even I thought.
Earnings’ reporting coming:
· Athersys (ATHX), Tuesday, 3/15
· Cellectis SA (CLLS) Thursday, 3/22
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
