March 9, 2022 4:57pm

Sentiment is transitory, volatility seems permanent as the cell and gene therapy sector recovers losses and I don’t trust this rally going forward

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works on Wednesday diving -$0.26 with 1,225 shares traded, Tuesday with 1,130 shares traded to close flat after Monday’s close +$0.29 with 399 shares traded

Pre-open indications: 3 Hits and 2 Miss

What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.

The Bottom Line says it all succinctly …

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read the facts supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +653.61 points (+2%); the S&P closed UP +107.18 points (+2.57%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +460 points (+3.59%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes posted sharp gains on Wednesday as recently surging commodity prices cooled off while the war in Ukraine continues.

An appropriate quote, “The equity market continues to take its cues from changes in commodity prices, namely oil,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “Trading will continue to be volatile and rally when prices retreat, but overall, the prospect of oil and non-energy prices remaining very high casts a cloud overall the outlook for economic activity and the equity market.” <CNBC>

The CBOE volatility index, also known as the fear gauge, fell for the second (2nd) straight session.

Another on target quote, “Headline risk from the war in Ukraine, where Russian forces continue their march towards the capital Kyiv as fighting enters its 13th day, remains elevated, however, as does the ongoing financial impact linked to scores of corporate boycotts, a U.S. ban on Russian energy exports and a warning from Fitch Ratings that the Russian government could be close to an 'imminent' default of some of its debt as a result of sanctions placed on its central bank's access to U.S. dollar reserves.” <TheStreet>

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.06) pops on agreement with Novartis (NVS):

  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) surged after announcing an agreement with Novartis. Per the terms of the deal, NVS receives a target-specific access to Voyager’s novel TRACER AAV capsids for potential use with three CNS targets plus options to access capsids for two additional targets.
  • In exchange, VYGR will receive $54 million upfront and is entitled to receive up to $37.5 million of exercise fees for options related to the three initial CNS targets.
  • NVS might also choose to evaluate capsids for up to two additional targets. VYGR will get $18 million upon selection of each target and a $12.5 million exercise fee for selection of a capsid for each target. VYGR is also eligible to earn up to $1.5 billion worth of potential development, regulatory and commercial milestones payments as well as mid- to high-single-digit tiered royalties based on the net sales of NVS products incorporating the licensed capsids.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “tread lightly, add, trim or hedge as needed. Some sessions, volatility is to be loved, while others to be hated and we are NOT done with both of them” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12333

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday opened positive at 36 up/0 downs, 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 35/3, ending with a positive close of 35/3;

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < Biostage (BSTG -$0.26), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.64), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.08)> 2 Miss < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.06), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.34),    

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q4/21 and FY21 Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628  …

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works on Wednesday -$0.26 with 1,225 shares traded after Tuesday with 1,130 shares traded to close flat after Monday’s close +$0.29 with 399 shares traded after Friday closing down -$0.44 with 1,303 shares traded after Thursday as 487 shares traded moving the share price +$0.25 after last Wednesday with 649 shares appeared pushing the share price +$0.34

  • WHO is BUYING these shares of a company with a 3-year-old IND, NO clinical trial initiation, a terminal death lawsuit overhang and a dwindling cash position?
  • By use of the pump/promote process; is BSTG preparing to register the outstanding private placement (PP) shares for a reverse to initiate an offering ...
  • BSTG is NOT going ANYWHERE without a cash infusion.

 

Key Metrics:

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 11 of the 35-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +3.27% and XBI closed up +4.89%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -2.68 points or -7.63% at 32.45

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 35):

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.64 after Tuesday’s +$0.91 and Monday’s -$0.61)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.64 after Tuesday’s -$0.34),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.79),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07 after Tuesday’s +$5.15 and Monday’s +$2.01),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.23 after Tuesday’s -$1.11 and Monday’s -$1.76),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.12 after Tuesday’s -$0.36 and Monday’s -$0.36),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.06),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.98),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.82),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.81 after Tuesday’s +$3.85 and Monday’s +$0.22),

Hammered in today’s market (3 of 3):

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$0.75 after Tuesday’s -$0.25 and Monday’s -$1.00),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.26)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.08),

 

March, Q1/2022:

  • Wednesday closed positive with 35 incliners, 3 decliners
  • Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. And I'd like to be more optimistic, but the reason I say this is the algorithms are always lurking for profiting.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, dropped 10% but still held as …

  • Wednesday was down -2.68 points or -7.63% at 32.45
  • Tuesday was down -0.96 points or -2.63% at 35.45
  • Monday was up +4.47 points or +13.98% at 36.45

The “dramatic” share pricing appreciation ranged from +0.76% to 23.8% - my concern is will the algorithms or electronic trading minimize Wednesday’s upside or will it come later this week.

There's always a very high level of uncertainty … as the cell and gene therapy sector’s volume remain LOW.

Remember the adage, “It takes two to make a market"; that’s sellers and buyers.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”; risk to growth now takes center stage for how long separation of sentiment lasts and how deep the oversold dive.

Q4 and end-of-year earnings are “gamy” than even I thought.

Earnings’ reporting coming:

·         Athersys (ATHX), Tuesday, 3/15

·         Cellectis SA (CLLS) Thursday, 3/22

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.