April 14, 2022 5:01pm

The cell and gene therapy sector slipped into another share pricing abyss after I wrote “curb your enthusiasm” and skim in anticipation of a coming depreciation

Pre-open indications: 11 HITs and 1 MISS

What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

The shotened week in review …

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -113.36 points (-0.33%); the S&P closed DOWN -54 points (-1.21%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -292.51 points (-2.14%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes declined as inflation fears obstructed share pricing appreciation.

Economic Data Docket: Retail sales figures for March slightly missed expectations with a 0.5% gain, driven by sales at gas stations, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s compared to the 0.6% consensus estimate. While jobless claims jumped 185,000 for the week ending April 9, according to data from the Labor Department.

The Dow is down, the S&P 500 dived and the Nasdaq dropped as the four-day holiday week ended.

The S&P is off -2.39%, Nasdaq is off 3.93% and the Dow is down 0.38% for the week.

“What’s happening with yields directly impacts stocks at this stage of the game, because it’s just one more of so many other negative data points, or bearish data points, that investors have to deal with,” said Adam Sarhan, founder and CEO at 50 Park Investments. <CNBC>

 

52-week low:

  • Precigen (PGEN) at $1.83
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) at $46.40
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $46.40

Unusual volume spike:

  • Verastem Oncology (VSTM) +$0.24 to $1.77 with 30 M shares traded

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “curb your enthusiasm. Skim in anticipation of a coming depreciation in this market and resulting sector as expectation is an insecure factor.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12388

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Thursday opened negative at 10 up/23 downs, 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/21 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 7/27 and 1 flat
  • Wednesday opened positive at 29 up/4 downs, 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 33/1 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 3/32
  • Tuesday opened positive at 28 up/4 downs, 3 flats, slipped negative at the mid-day at 13/21 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 10/24 and 1 flat;
  • Monday opened negative at 0 up/35 downs, stayed negative at the mid-day at 2/32 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 1/33 and 1 flat,

 

Pre-open Indications: 11 HITs: <SELL into Strength: Biostage (BSTG -$0.02 with 553 shares traded), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.12), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$5.12), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.65), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.03), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.16), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.59), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.72), uniQure NV (QURE -$1.36), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.07), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.63)> 1 MISS < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.20)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 27-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 33-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.24% and the XBI was down -2.92%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.53% and the XBI was up +3.28%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.77% and the XBI was down -0.19%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -2.30% and the XBI was down -3.40%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up+0.88 points or +4.03% at 22.70
  • Wednesday was down -2.44 points or -10.14% at 21.80
  • Tuesday was down -0.11 points or -0.45% at 24.26
  • Monday was up +3.21 points or +15.17 % at 24.37

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (7 of 7):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.82 after Wednesday’s +$3.74, Tuesday’s +$1.34 and Monday’s -$2.62),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.33 after Wednesday’s +$1.01),
  • Verastem (VSTM+$0.24),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.20),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.05),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM+$0.02),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.01)

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 27):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$5.12 after Wednesday’s +$1.45, Tuesday’s +$0.43 and Monday’s -$2.76),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.65 after Wednesday’s+$1.29 and Tuesday’s +$2.13),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.07 after Wednesday’s +$1.65, Tuesday’s -$0.62 and Monday’s -$1.33),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.10),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.70 after Wednesday’s -$0.23, Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s -$0.38),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.36 after Wednesday’s +$1.50, Tuesday’s -$0.13 and Monday’s +$0.08),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.22 after Wednesday’s +$1.83, Tuesday’s -$0.61 and Monday’s -$0.51),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.16 after Wednesday’s +$1.99, Tuesday’s +$0.61 and Monday’s -$2.15),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.12 after Wednesday’s +$8.88, Tuesday’s +$2.12 and Monday’s -$5.99),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.72),

 

April, Q2/2022:

  • Thursday closed negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 32incliners and 3 decliners
  • Tuesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 8 incliners and 27 decliners

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Share pricing downdrafts are an epidemic after drama driven algorithmic upsides.  

What did I write this a.m., “curb your enthusiasm” as “dramatic sector appreciation after a walloping, becomes quite suspect as news pricing lacks support?

State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.

I try to keep it simple …

We are getting close to Q2 reporting season … yet, I can’t write away my misgivings about the daily missives. 

To expect a payday - SELL; volatility and low volume are part of the equation enabling a downdraft as the week closes early due to Good Friday.

I am still, in the here and now, the cell and gene therapy sector will be on hold until clinical results stimulate these equities!

As I had stated, “Draining liquidity has impeded any shares pricing expectation.” I am also more than worried about pricey valuations that (in my mind’s eye) have NO basis.

Earnings’ season is upon us as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) reports Thursday,4/28 followed so far by AxoGen (AXGN) on 5/4.

As I stated in last Friday night’s post, “What justifies the share pricing, it’s NOT investor advocacy?  The short-term and near-term pricing “shades” the long-term price targets.”

Volume again was also barely there … as earnings might get even more ugly.

I am more than worried about investment bank pricey analyst valuations that (in my mind’s eye) have NO basis.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”; risk to growth now takes center stage for how long separation of sentiment lasts and how deep the oversold dive.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.