April 29, 2022 4:52pm

After a rough and tumbled month, the sector reverses to a negative close as sentiment continues to be disassembled. As I wrote this a.m., What comes in a month’s end, a letdown … scary

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The terminal death law suit that has hung over the company for years has been settled (4/28) for $6 M. For a company with extremely limited cash position, it will write yet another Convertible Preferred Debt <called a Preferred Issuance Agreement (PIA)> just another “Shenanigan” of a BROKE company.

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs, 1 MISS and 1 Pimp/Pump/promote

What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

The week in review …

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -938.99 points (-2.77%); the S&P closed DOWN -155.76 points (-3.63%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -536.89 points (-4.17%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell, setting the stage for the Nasdaq’s biggest monthly drop since March 2008

“Equities were also under pressure after data showed that monthly inflation surged by the most since 2005 while U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in March amid strong demand for services. Also, first quarter U.S. labor costs surged by the most in 21 years, pointing to rising wage inflation, supporting Federal Reserve's policy tightening.” <Reuters>

 

52-week lows:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $29.09,
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) at $7.42,
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) at $1.08,
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.94,
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) at $3.78,
  • AVROBIO (AVRO) at $0.99,
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $1.67,
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.58,

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “What comes in a month’s end, a letdown? Why am I a sceptic, the sector’s rally began mid-day and then picked up momentum to close positive; today will be the last trading day of the April – scary.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12414

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday opened positive at 26 up/9 downs, dived negative at the mid-day to 11/24 ending with a negative close of 5/30,
  • Thursday opened negative at 10 up/22 downs and 3 flats, dived to 1/32 and 1 flat at 11:30a.m., flipped positive at the mid-day at 20/13 and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 21/13 and 1 flat,
  • Wednesday opened positive at 26 up/5 downs and 4 flats, flopped negative at the mid-day at 14/20 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 7/28,
  • Tuesday opened negative at 3 up/31 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 0/35, ending again with a negative close of 0/35,
  • Monday opened negative at 12 up/20 downs and 3 flats, flipped positive at 10:30 a.m. at 24/10 and 1 flat, the mid-day continued positive at 10/24 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 27/7 and 1 flat,

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs <BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.34), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.33), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.26)> 1 MISS <Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.09)> and 1 Pimp/Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG +$0.10 with 2,819 shares traded>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 6 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 7 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 7 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 0-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 13 of 35-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 27-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -2.03% and the XBI was down -3.19%
  • Thursday, the IBB was flat 0.00% and the XBI was up +0.36%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.28 % and the XBI was down -1%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -3.86% and the XBI was down -5.98%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.93% and the XBI was up +2.23%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +3.80 points or +12.67% at 33.79
  • Thursday was down -1.61 points or -5.09% at 29.99
  • Wednesday was down -1.92 points or -5.73 % at 31.60
  • Tuesday was up +5.84 points or +21.54% at 32.84
  • Monday was down -1.33 points or -4.71% at 26.88

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (5 of 5):

  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.18 after Thursday’s +$0.49),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.10 after Thursday’s -$0.00),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.05 after Thursday’s -$0.06 and Wednesday’s +$0.06),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.02),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.10),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$9.73 after Thursday’s -$11.76),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.09 after Thursday’s -$0.22, Wednesday’s -$0.57, Tuesday’s -$3.01 and Monday’s +$0.82),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.91 after Thursday’s -$0.58, Wednesday’s-$0.63 and Tuesday’s -$1.73),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.79 after Thursday’s -$0.31),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.04 after Thursday’s -$0.26, Wednesday’s -$0.34, Tuesday’s -$4.06 and Monday’s +$2.09),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.00 after Thursday’s -$0.34, Wednesday’s-$0.84, Tuesday’s -$4.47 and Monday’s +$1.59),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.33 after Thursday’s -$0.31, Wednesday’s -$0.41, Tuesday’s -$2.09 and Monday’s +$1.50),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.26 after Thursday’s +$0.95, Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s -$3.74 and Monday’s +$2.93),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.90 after Thursday’s +$0.73, Wednesday’s +$0.24 and Tuesday’s -$1.77),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.78 after Thursday’s +$0.53),

 

April, Q2/2022:

Friday closed negative with 5 incliners and 30 decliners

Thursday closed positive with 21 incliners, 13 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliners and 28 decliners

Tuesday closed negative with 0 incliners, 35 decliners

Monday closed positive with 27 incliners, 7 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed negative with 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 15 incliners and 20 decliners

Tuesday closed positive with 27 incliners, 6 decliners and 2 flats

Monday closed negative with 4 incliner and 31 decliners

Friday was a holiday

Thursday closed negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 32incliners and 3 decliners

Tuesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed negative with 8 incliners and 27 decliners

Thursday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed positive with 31 incliners and 4 decliners

Friday closed positive with 27 incliners and 6 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: A horrific sesion ends the week ...

As the week and month of April ended, the cell and gene therapy sector investors are weathering yet another volatile trading sessions as equities struggled to the downside by the close of the session.

Two (2) sector earnings (ALNY and SLDB) from my covered list and they are BOTH charging their equity pricing into the ground.

As I had written, “This week may easily be a fork in the road of equities. ... Bottom-up drivers will either confirm or reject what the challenging macro backdrop has given us over the last three weeks,” MKM’s JC O’Hara said in a note. <CNBC>

State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

We are getting close to Q2 reporting season … yet, I can’t write away my misgivings about the daily sessions. 

Earnings’ season is upon us as Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) will report on 5/3 and AxoGen (AXGN), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL), and Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) on 5/4 and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) on 4/5.

Volume again was also barely there … as earnings might get even more ugly.

Don’t hold your breath after a few up sessions, algorithms are lurking under the surface of minimal sentiment

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.