May 3, 2022 4:50pm
The cell and gene therapy sector opened and skipped to the downside, then flipped to the upside as volatility twisted. As I stated this a.m., “After yesterday’s (Monday) spike up, down and up again; another trip and fall without getting up?” Never totally wrong, more than frequently right!
Pre-open indications: 10 HITs and 0 MISS
Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +67.29 points (+0.20%); the S&P closed UP +20.10 points (+0.46%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +27.74 points (+0.22%)
Indexes rose slightly on Tuesday as investors looked forward to a pivotal Fed meeting.
Tuesday’s gains built on a late rally from the previous session, which saw all three major averages erase sizable losses to close higher for the day.
What are we as investors are up against, “bracing for the Fed's latest monetary policy decision, which is set to include measures intended to accelerate the central bank's fight to bring down elevated inflation, even at the expense of some economic growth? Investors are looking for the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000, and to officially announce the timing of the start of quantitative tightening, or the rolling of assets off the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet.” <Yahoo Finance>
Economic Data Docket: U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in March amid strong demand for services, while monthly inflation surged by the most in 16-1/2 years, giving the Federal Reserve ammunition to hike interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points next week.
- The case for an aggressive monetary policy stance from the U.S. central bank was also strengthened by other data on Friday showing compensation for American workers recording its largest increase in more than three decades in the first quarter. Companies are boosting wages in a desperate bid to attract scarce workers.
- Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 1.1% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised higher to show outlays advancing 0.6% instead of 0.2% as previously reported. <Reuters>
52-week lows: increasing …
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.56,
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.92,
- AVROBIO (AVRO) at $0.92,
- Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $1.70,
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “what goes dramatically up, floats down. After yesterday’s spikes up, down and up again; another trip and fall without getting up?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12419
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Tuesday opened negative at 13 up/21 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 16/18 and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 21/14,
- Monday opened positive at 34 up/0 downs and 1 flat, slipped neutral at the mid-day at 17/17 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 30/3 and 2 flats,
Pre-open Indications: 10 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.12), SELL into Strength: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.75), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.13), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.64), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.09), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.05), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.13), UniQure NV (QURE +$0.15), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.15), Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.82)> 0 MISS>
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 14-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 14 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 2 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.91% and the XBI was up +0.09%
- Monday, the IBB was up +1.47% and the XBI was up +4%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -3.23 points or-9.99+% at 29.11
- Monday was down -1.06 points or -3.17% at 32.34
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 21):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.84 after Monday’s +$5.62),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.40 after Monday’s +$1.46),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.64),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.64 after Monday’s +$2.36),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.42),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.24),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.19 after Monday’s +$1.08),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.17 after Monday’s +$2.58),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.15),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.15),
Hammered in today’s market (14 of 14):
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.22),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.75 after Monday’s +$3.25),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.82 after Monday’s +$1.60),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.99 after Monday’s +$1.21),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.13),
- Biostage (BSTG -$0.12 after Monday’s $0.00),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.09),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.06),
- Verastem (VSTM -$0.06),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.05 after Monday’s +$1.39),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.05),
- AVROBIO (AVRO -$0.037),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.02),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0086 after Monday’s -$0.01),
- Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners and 14 decliners
- Monday closed positive with 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: Cell and gene therapy sector equities are coming off a brutal month. April was the worst month since March 2020 for the Dow and S&P 500. It was the worst month for the Nasdaq since 2008.
As I continue, “State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.”
Sentiment is negative, it comes and goes with algorithms not investor input; we need to see more than algorithm bursting to the upside or downside and find some real support from other than electronic trading.
Four (4) sector earnings (QURE, ALNY, SLDB and today SAGE) from my covered list.
The cell and gene therapy sector moved at the start of this week to the upside to dive upon a streak of volatile trading as investors have endured over the past month of April.
MY concerns have been enumerated by a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.
I believe that sector investors of all kind of knew what's coming. And yet sometimes that doesn't matter. Sometimes the sector comes from deeply oversold to a dramatic “lift” enabling a dive into being oversold yet again.
So, I think we have to keep in mind the alternating risks of earnings’ season in mind as the numbers explain.
I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.
We are getting close to Q2 reporting season … yet, I can’t write away my misgivings about the daily sessions.
Earnings’ season is upon us as Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) will report on 5/3; AxoGen (AXGN), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL), and Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) on 5/4 and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) on 4/5, BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 4/.
Volume again was also barely there … as earnings might get even more ugly.
Don’t hold your breath after a few up sessions, algorithms are lurking under the surface of minimal sentiment
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.