May 4, 2022 5:06pm

As I stated this a.m., “don't be surprised by big swings in today’s session” Never totally wrong, more than frequently right!

Pre-open indications: 10 HITs and 0 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +932.27 points (+2.81%); the S&P closed UP +124.69 points (+2.99%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +401.10points (+3.19%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes closed up on Wednesday … as I had stated expectation of Fed policy was anticipated and built-in.

Volatility is likely to continue. Rate hikes have just begun, inflation looks sticky, many geopolitical issues have no obvious offramp, and midterm election rhetoric is just ramping up.

Economic Data Docket:  private payrolls report from ADP showed an increase of 247,000 for April, well below the 390,000 estimate. The full labor department payrolls report for April is due out Friday.

Indexes have now risen for three straight days to start May, stabilizing after an April that saw the Nasdaq suffer its worst month since 2008.

 

52-week lows:

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.56,
  • Precigen (PGEN) at $1.28,
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE) at $27.47,
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.91,
  • AVROBIO (AVRO) at $0.93,
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $1.70,

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a session up for grabs. Number of sector earnings and “Fed Day” with the policy announcement at 2 p.m. ET; so, don't be surprised by big swings in today’s session” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12421  

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 5 up/26 downs and 4 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 8/27 and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 28/6and 1 flat,

 

Pre-open Indications: 10 HITs <Biostage (BSTG -$0.36), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.16), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.54), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.91), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.41); SELL into Strength: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.54), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.00), Pluristem (PSTI +$0.05), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.08), UniQure NV (QURE +$0.50)> 0 MISS>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 13 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 4 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.25% and the XBI was up +2.03%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

Wednesday was down -4.05 points or -13.85% at 25.20

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.92 after Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$2.58),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.16 after Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s +$3.25),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s +$2.36),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.91 after Tuesday’s -$0.99 and Monday’s +$1.21),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.63 after Tuesday’s -$0.09),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.41 after Tuesday’s +$0.19 and Monday’s +$1.08),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.08),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.13),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.54 after Tuesday’s +$3.84 after Monday’s +$5.62),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.15),

Hammered in today’s market (6 of 6):

  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.61),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.82 and Monday’s +$1.60),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.22 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 after Monday’s $0.00),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.31 after Tuesday’s +$1.40 and Monday’s +$1.46),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0429),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.24),

Flat:

  • Mesoblast (MESO)

 

May, Q2/2022:

  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners and 14 decliners
  • Monday closed positive with 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The drama of the upside move was NOT expected as earnings “complicate” the elements of sentiment yet, the sector went from a bottom to a dramatic upside move.

Cell and gene therapy sector equities are coming off a brutal month. April was the worst month since March 2020.

As I continue, “State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.”

Sentiment is negative, it comes and goes with algorithms not investor input; we need to see more than algorithm bursting to the upside or downside and find some real support from other than electronic trading.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

So, I think we have to keep in mind the alternating risks of earnings’ season in mind as the numbers explain.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

We are getting close to Q2 reporting season … yet, I can’t write away my misgivings about the daily sessions. 

Earnings’ season is upon us as Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) on 4/5, BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 4/.

Don’t hold your breath after a few up sessions, algorithms are lurking under the surface of minimal sentiment

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.