May 6, 2022 4:39pm

Wednesday’s gains were short-lived followed by Thursday’s pain and earnings’ reports helped spur the dive as sentiment continue to dwindle dry

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 2 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

The week in review …

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -96.89 points (-0.29%); the S&P closed DOWN -23.23 points (-0.56%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -173.03 points (-1.40%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes and the cell and gene therapy sector extending losses from the prior session after the April jobs report came out. A massive sell-off hit the market Thursday after the Fed its 50-basis point decision regarding monetary policy.

  • The losses Friday came despite an April jobs report that showed a gain of 428,000 jobs, more than the 400,000 expected by economists.

Economic Data Docket: April's job report showed a better-than-expected 428,000 nonfarm payrolls returned across the U.S. economy last month. The unemployment rate held steady from March to come in at 3.6%, or just slightly above February 2020's multidecade low of 3.5%.

  • One weak area of the report was the labor force participation rate, which was little changed month over month and remains 1.2 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level. Economists believe that a recovery in participation could help stem the rise in wages and, by extension, inflation.

 

52-week lows:

  • XBI at 71.78,
  • IBB at 114.19,
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) at $1.01,
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $46.51
  • Ultragenyx (RARE) at $60.53,
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) at $3.39,
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.12,
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) at $47.85,
  • Precigen (PGEN) at $1.24,
  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE) at $30.04,
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $24.34,
  • AVROBIO (AVRO) at $0.84,
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) at $23.41,
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.85,
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) at $35.80,

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a minor surge post the purge. Is sentiment disconnected from reality, or reflecting the true state of investor attitude and satisfaction?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12425

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday opened negative at 1 up/33 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 1/33 and 1 flat ending with a negative close of 5/30,
  • Thursday opened negative at 4 up/30 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 4/31 ending with a negative close of 5/30,
  • Wednesday opened negative at 5 up/26 downs and 4 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 8/27 and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat,
  • Tuesday opened negative at 13 up/21 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 16/18 and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 21/14,
  • Monday opened positive at 34 up/0 downs and 1 flat, slipped neutral at the mid-day at 17/17 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 30/3 and 2 flats,

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.00), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.70), Vericel (VCEL -$1.62)> 2 MISS < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.46), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.33)>

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions during this “trying” week

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with MODERATE volume of 16 of 33-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with MODERATE volume of 13 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 13 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 4 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 14-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 14 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 2 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -3.57% and the XBI was down -5.04%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -3.69% and the XBI was down -6.02%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.25% and the XBI was up +2.03%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.91% and the XBI was up +0.09%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.47% and the XBI was up +4%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.01 points or -3.24% at 30.19
  • Thursday was up +6.01 points or +23.64% at 31.43
  • Wednesday was down -4.05 points or -13.85% at 25.20
  • Tuesday was down -3.23 points or-9.99+% at 29.11
  • Monday was down -1.06 points or -3.17% at 32.34

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (1 of 1):

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0161),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 33):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$8.90 after Thursday’s -$4.50, Wednesday’s -$0.54, Tuesday’s -$0.82 and Monday’s +$1.60),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.33 after Thursday’s -$4.28, Wednesday’s +$3.00, Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s +$2.36),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.03 after Thursday’s -$3.50, Wednesday’s +$1.91, Tuesday’s -$0.99 and Monday’s +$1.21),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.72 after Thursday’s -$2.56),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.70 after Thursday’s -$2.89, Wednesday’s +$1.41, Tuesday’s +$0.19 and Monday’s +$1.08),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.46 after Thursday’s -$5.67, Wednesday’s +$3.92, Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$2.58),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.99 after Thursday’s -$6.69, Wednesday’s +$0.54, Tuesday’s +$3.84 and Monday’s +$5.62),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.97 after Thursday’s -$4.24),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.75
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.62 after Thursday’s -$2.53, Wednesday’s -$0.31, Tuesday’s +$1.40 and Monday’s +$1.46),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

 

May, Q2/2022:

  • Friday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 5 incliners and 30 decliners
  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners and 14 decliners
  • Monday closed positive with 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the cell and gene therapy sector were hit the hardest …

Back to pain after pain and Wednesday’s gain; asked as I asked the question – it was a continuing trounce?

Bang, bang shot twice in the “street”.

The broad nature of the cell and gene therapy sector’s losses are concerning as they revolve back to April’s chaos.

Cell and gene therapy sector equities are coming off a brutal month. April was the worst month since March 2020.

As I continue, “State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.”

Sentiment is negative, it comes and goes with algorithms not investor input; we need to see more than algorithm bursting to the upside or downside and find some real support from other than electronic trading.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

So, I think we have to keep in mind the alternating risks of earnings’ season in mind as the numbers explain.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

Earnings’ season is upon us as Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) on 5/5, BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 5/9.

Don’t hold your breath after a few up sessions, algorithms are lurking under the surface of minimal sentiment

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.