May 10, 2022 7:40am
Put a bounce in finding the bottom in equities to define missed value beyond being just oversold
Motivating force behind sector and market is still fear
Earnings: AVROBIO (AVRO) and Agenus (AGEN)
Pre-open indications: 6 Upside Indications, 1 Downside Indication and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote
RMi outlines a daily bell ringing of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Just the facts … I ask questions and note the indications of what could happen …
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +0.57% (+182 points), S&P futures are UP +0.60% (+24 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.96% (+117 points) early in the pre-open – so far,
U.S. stock futures rose Tuesday morning to escape its low levels,
European stocks advanced as global markets tried to rebound,
Asia-Pacific stocks fell after returning after a holiday on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell nearly 2% today.
Seeking a Tuesday “overdue” correction …
Indexes sold off with heavy losses to hit new correction lows
Monday, the Nasdaq dropped -521.41 points or -4.29% closing at its lowest level since November 2020.
Economic Data Docket: On Wednesday, April's consumer price index will be released. Per Econoday, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% on the month in April versus March's 1.2% increase which was the largest monthly advance in 42 years.
Perceived Value Note for “our’universe: Pfizer (PFE) will buy migraine drug maker Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding (NYSE: BHVN) for about $11.6 billion in cash. PFE will acquire all the outstanding shares not already owned by Pfizer for $148.50 per share in cash, a 78.6% premium to BHVN’s last closing price. BHVN shareholders, including PFE, will also get 0.5 of a share of a new publicly traded company that will retain BHVN’s non-migraine treatments that are in development stage. In November, PFE acquired overseas marketing rights to two migraine drugs from BHVN for up to $1.24 billion, with Pfizer taking a 2.6% equity stake.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “another non-tradeable bottom as falling knives initiate a bleeding ulcer regarding my coverage portfolio. While non-existent confidence and withering investor sentiment created a “run” on the sector” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12428
Ebb and flow –
May - 3 positive and 3 negative closes
· April - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 13 negative closes
· March – 13 negative and 10 positive closes
· February stats: 11 negative, 8 positive closes and 1 holiday
· January stats: 2 holidays, 1 neutral, 13 negative and 6 positive closes
RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q1/22 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) closed down -$0.66 to $6.67 <52-week low of $6.54> after Friday’s $7.33, Thursday’s $7.78, Wednesday’s $8.34 and last Tuesday’s $7.80 with a positive +$0.33 or +4.95% pre-open indication,
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$4.78 to $43.23 <52-week low of $43.05> after Friday’s $48.01, Thursday’s $51.34, Wednesday’s $55.62 and last Tuesday’s $52.62 with a positive +$1.95 or +4.51% pre-open indication,
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down-$2.55 to $11.11 <52-week low of $11.10> after Friday’s $13.66, Thursday’s $14.56, Wednesday’s $15.81 and last Tuesday’s $14.18 with a positive +$0.31 or +2.79% pre-open indication,
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$6.12 to $41.45 after Friday’s -$2.46 <52-week low of $41.12> after Thursday’s -$5.67, Wednesday’s $3.92 and last Tuesday’s $0.17 with a positive +$1.57 or +3.79% pre-open indication,
Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed down -$0.44 to $3.70 <52-week low of $3.66>after Friday’s -$0.16 to $4.14 with a positive +$0.03 or +0.81% pre-open indication,
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down-$1.09 to $27.52 after Friday’s -$2.70 <52-week low of $27.37> after Thursday’s -$2.89, Wednesday’s +$1.41 and last Tuesday’s +$0.19 with a negative -$0.52 or -1.89% pre-open indication post earnings
Puff/Pump and Promote: Maintaining SELL
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed down -$0.39 with 6,422 shares traded after Friday’s flat at $6.00, Thursday’s +$0.49 to $6.00 with 628 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.36 with 5,171 shares traded and last Tuesday’s -$0.12 with 3,350 shares traded.
WARNING: A terminal death lawsuit that just got settled (4/28) for $6 M by a “broke” company with yet another preferred convertible debt financing?
- A “ZOMBIE” company, WHY BUY this equity with a 3-year-old IND, NO clinical trial initiation, and a precarious financial position dependent on a possible cash infusion? Also, WHY the pump of the volume to gain share appreciation – they have to reverse the multiple private placements (the priciest was $4.71) for a potential/proposed stock offering.
One positive, Chairman and interim CEO Green shifted the burden of the death suit from management’s responsibility to shareholders with this new settlement with a debt financing.
- Question: Didn’t Chairman and then CEO invite Paola Macchiarini, the individual responsible for the terminal death (to Harvard Apparatus, now Biostage) who is just going on trial in Sweden for similar but, aggravated assault reasons against patients?
Last question: Has BSTG filed their FDA annual report on their IND to the FDA – which defines its capacity and capability why it can go forward to a clinical trial and their CRO plan forward?
The BOTTOM LINE: After pain; the question will be how about a brounce?
There has been pain associated with earnings’ going forward as market forces helped build the sector’s upside as LPS (loss-per-share) is painful but, more than important the on-going clinical trials outcomes, cash positions and “runway’s”.
Reiterating, I am STILL NOT trusting the month of May – too many earning releasees.
Market/sector breadth is anemic, with losers outpacing winners and new lows trouncing new highs.
So, brace for more choppiness in the near-term as we continue… the earnings “black hole next week
I try to keep it simple … and short!
Investors should consider taking at least partial profits quickly on winners to avoid round-tripping moves.
I am still, in the here and now, the cell and gene therapy sector will continue to “flutter”; as we are about to enter the earnings’ zone!
Earnings’ season is still upon us with: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 5/16 and Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 5/13, so far.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.