May 12, 2022 4:42pm

The cell and gene therapy sector spikes – short covering (?) as market rebound attempt flounders

Earnings: Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Chinook Therapeutics (KDN) reported LPS (loss-per-share) earnings

Fear is still lurking beneath the surface of this market

Pre-open indications: 8 HITs and 2 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -103.81 points (-0.33%); the S&P closed DOWN -5.10 points (-0.13%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.73 points (+0.06%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Thursday as the market sell-off continued after another failed rebound attempt.

At one point, the Nasdaq added 1.6%; closing down -1.8%.

On-target quote of which I agree, “It’s my opinion that this is a market that’s trading on emotions and not rational logic,” Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners. “Every day for the last however many days, you get this pop in the morning, and then it dribbles off.” <CNBC>

 

52-week and all-time lows:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) at $118.37,
  • XBI at 61.89,
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) at $0.95,
  • Ultragenyx (RARE) at $49.76,
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $20.96,
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) at $28.85,
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) at $6.52,
  • AVROBIO (AVRO) at $0.75,
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) at $2.87,

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector equity’ LOWS need consideration to find a sustainable footing - I can dream! So far there are no real indications that the cell and gene therapy sector is near a bottom; as the risks of inflation remain high” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12433

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Thursday opened positive at 23 up/10 downs and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/5 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 28/5 and 2 flats

 

Pre-open Indications: 8 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), Agenus (AGEN +$0.04), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.48), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.62), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$1.47), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.87), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.36), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.78), 2 MISS <Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.66), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.18)>

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions

  • Thursday - Sector volume was HIGH with 20 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 4 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday, the IBB was up +2.81% and the XBI was up +3.41%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.65 points or -2% at 31.91

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.87 after Wednesday’s -$3.64, Tuesday’s +$4.08 and Monday’s -$4.78),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.66 after Wednesday’s -$4.46, Tuesday’s +$2.95 and Monday’s -$6.12),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS (IONS +$2.09),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.79),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.48 after Wednesday’s -$5.82, Tuesday’s +$2.49 and Monday’s -$2.39),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$1.47),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.91 after Wednesday’s -$7.76, Tuesday’s +$5.66 and Monday’s -$12.23),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.89),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.78),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.39),

Hammered in today’s market (5 of 5):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.46 after Wednesday’s -$2.68, Tuesday’s +$1.76 and Monday’s -$5.74),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.16),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.064),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.04),
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.01),

2 Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

 

May, Q2/2022:

  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Today, Thursday we see a reverse of the volatility curse of the oversold. So far there are no real indications that the cell and gene therapy sector is near a bottom; as the risks of inflation remain high.

Yet the algorithms are doing investors work in share pricing appreciation as we see a surge to the oversold’s upside.

The cell and gene therapy’s sector roll-up stands by itself. it's going to be continually challenging, no doubt, because there are things going on both the buyside and the elements of demand based on catalysts and those that enhance the oversold and the 52-week lows – NO or barely any investor communication and CEO hubris (I could name names).

We are STILL subject to economics - first-time claims for unemployment rose to 203,000. Initial jobless claims were expected to fall to 190,000 compared with the previous week's 200,000 applications.

Risk remains HIGH as FEAR lurks beneath the surface of any upside.

Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of these markets CONTROL of the sector’s movement.

The 52-week lows continue to be OVERWHELMING!

Weakness has also been driven by earnings’ reporting, the lack of sentiment, conviction and confidence enhanced by volatility.

As I continue, “State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.”

Q1/22 earnings season is half completed (24 of 35 reported) having reported LPS (loss-per-share) results so far MISSING estimates and revenues.

  • BLCM, ADVM and KDNY reported today.

I have yet to see one (1) net income!

Earnings’ season is upon us with: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 5/16 and Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 5/13, and Biostage (BSTG) with a release on 5/16.

Keep watching and reading focused on stem, cell and gene therapy equities that are barely showing relative strength.

In this market correction, watchlists can be like sand castles, crumbling under fresh waves of selling. But keep working on those sand castles. When the sector turns, you'll be ready to take advantage.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.