May 13, 2022 4:54pm

How many times are you right about the sector’s moves and relationship to market forces; RMI is more frequently on target with objective, fact and a numbers-based narrative – check the numbers!

The issue will be pricing sustainability next week as I believe we are only “renting” the upside?

Pre-open indications: 1 HIT and 1 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

The week in review ... with alternating sector volatility with "The Bottom Line" defining my interpretation

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +466.36 points (+1.47%); the S&P closed UP +93.81 points (+2.39%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +434.04 points (+3.82%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes jumped Friday, as investors hoped for a bounce-back from a week of sharp losses.

Volume was down on both the Nasdaq compared to the same time Thursday; this is not ideal when the sector and market are trying to rally.

Despite the gains, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were on course to post their sixth consecutive weekly loss. It would be the longest losing streak for the S&P 500 since fall 2012 and for the Nasdaq since spring 2011. <Reuters>

“The market gyrations this week coincided with two major inflation reports that came in hotter-than-expected. Thursday's Producer Price Index showed an 11% year-over-year rise in wholesale prices last month, with this rate moderating only slightly from March's all-time high rate of 11.5%. And the Consumer Price Index released earlier this week showed a still-elevated 8.3% annual increase in prices paid by consumers last month.” <Yahoo! finance>

 

52-week and all-time lows:

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) at $0.88,
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $1.53,
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) at $3.42,
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.52,
  • Precigen (PGEN) at $1.18,
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $11.05,

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “I’m mostly HOLDING today, even with futures rising. The cell and gene therapy sector searches for direction on Friday, the 13th; the “most unlucky day on the calendar or is it”? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12435

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday opened positive at 32 up/1 downs and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/3 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 32/2 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday opened positive at 23 up/10 downs and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/5 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 28/5 and 2 flats
  • Wednesday opened positive at 18 up/16 downs and 1 flat, flipped dramatically negative at the mid-day at 1/32 and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 0/34 and 1 flat
  • Tuesday opened positive at 33 up/1 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 26/7 and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 29/5 and 1 flat
  • Monday opened negative at 3 up/31 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/32, ending with a negative close of 1/34.

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 HIT < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00) was down -$0.89 until the "pump" came-in> 1 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.19)>

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions

  • Friday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 15 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with NADA volume of 2 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was HIGH with 20 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 4 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was FLAT with 0 of the 0-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 24 of 34-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was HIGH with 21 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was FLAT with 1 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 24 of 34-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +3.37% and the XBI was up +5.68%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +2.81% and the XBI was up +3.41%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -3.34% and the XBI was down -7.22%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.67% and the XBI was up +5.08%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -5.20% and the XBI was down -8.26%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -2.94 points or -9.25 % at 28.83
  • Thursday was down -0.65 points or -2% at 31.91
  • Wednesday was down -0.43 points or -1.30% at 32.56
  • Tuesday was down -1.79 points or -5.15% at 32.96
  • Monday was up +4.49 points or +14.87% at 34.68

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 32):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.00 after Thursday’s +$2.66, Wednesday’s -$4.46, Tuesday’s +$2.95 and Monday’s -$6.12),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.69 after Thursday’s +$2.87, Wednesday’s -$3.64, Tuesday’s +$4.08 and Monday’s -$4.78),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.14 after Thursday’s +$0.91, Wednesday’s -$7.76, Tuesday’s +$5.66 and Monday’s -$12.23),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$4.01 after Thursday’s +$1.48, Wednesday’s -$5.82, Tuesday’s +$2.49 and Monday’s -$2.39),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.41),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.26),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.19 after Thursday’s +$0.18 to $29.52, Wednesday’s -$0.76 and Tuesday’s +$2.58),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.06 after Thursday’s +$0.78),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.05 after Thursday’s -$0.46, Wednesday’s -$2.68, Tuesday’s +$1.76 and Monday’s -$5.74),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.05

Hammered in today’s market (2 of 2):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.17 after Thursday’s -$0.04),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0732 after Thursday’s -$0.064),

1 Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG) -$0.00 with 1,811 shares traded after yet another $5.1 M Private placement),

 

May, Q2/2022:

  • Friday closed positive with 32 incliner, 2 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 0 incliner, 34 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 29 incliner, 5 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed negative with 1 incliner and 34 decliners

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  The cell and gene therapy sector was on fire today!

On target quote, "Is this a dead cat bounce? Or is it a recognition by investors, as I believe, that the sell-off is overdone?" said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. "I would not be surprised if we see one or two more down weeks, but you have to look past the indices and see the underpinnings of the market. And what we’re seeing today is some of the beaten-up quality names are really rebounding sharply." <Yahoo! finance>

Our cell and gene therapy sector is begging for a bottom for a sustainable rally. At the end of this week, there has been multiple positive closes with retreat sessions.

Doesn’t mean that an algorithmic “raid” is NOT in the cards due next week?

Today, Friday following Thursday’s “pop”; we saw a reverse of the volatility curse of the oversold. So far there are no real indications that the cell and gene therapy sector is near a bottom; as the risks of inflation remain high.

Risk remains HIGH as FEAR lurks beneath the surface of any upside.

Yet the algorithms are doing investors work in share pricing appreciation as we see a surge to the past oversold’s upside.

We are STILL subject to news and economics - Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of these markets CONTROL of the sector’s movement.

As I continue, “investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.”

Q1/22 earnings reporting season has reached the final stretch; it has completed (28 of 35 reported) LPS (loss-per-share) results so far with most reporting companies MISSING estimates and revenues estimates.

I have yet to see one (1) net income!

Earnings’ season is upon us with: Biostage (BSTG) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 5/16 and Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 5/13.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.