May 16, 2022 4:45pm
The issue is and will be pricing sustainability … from Friday’s evening post, I STILL believe we are only “renting” the upside?
SELL into Strength was my daily mantra – build cash positions as 52-week lows become “relevant” to portfolio “wallets”
Earnings: Homology Medicine (FIXX) and Biostage (BSTG)
Pre-open indications: 10 HIT and 0 MISS
Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +26.76 points (+0.08%); the S&P closed DOWN -15.87 points ( -1.39%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -142.21 points ( -1.20%)
Indexes rose, fell, rose again and fell to close mixed furthering some of last week’s losses, as traders weighed the pain upon us with more coming into a full-bore U.S. recession.
The major averages are coming off a rough week, as concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth, higher rates from the Federal Reserve and soaring inflation have dented market sentiment. The Dow posted a seven-week losing streak Friday, its longest since 2001. The S&P 500 notched a six-week slide — its longest since 2011. <CNBC>
The healthcare sector got a boost from a 3.7% jump in the shares of Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) after the drugmaker won U.S. approval for tirzepatide, to treat adults with type 2 diabetes. <Reuters>
The Nasdaq has fallen 25%, so far this year, with cell and gene therapy stocks taking a hit on concerns the lack of clinical news, dwindling cash positions and a lack of conviction and confidence.
The small-cap Russell 2000 was also flat on Monday while volume run lower on the Nasdaq.
52-week and all-time lows:
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) at $0.809,
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV) at $13.79,
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.54,
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $11.14,
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) at $3.19,
- Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $1.44,
- bluebird bio (BLUE) at $3.39,
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.749,
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sell into strength, I do NOT trust this market. Enjoyed Friday’s bounce, be ready to scale out Monday/Tuesday after two (2) up sessions in a row of three (3) positive closes last week. Let ‘em run, then bolt” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12437
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Monday opened negative at 12 up/20 downs and 3 flats, flipped neutral at the mid-day at 17/17 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 15/19 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 10 HITs <SELL into Strength: Biostage (BSTG $0.00), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.24), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.15), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.84), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.24), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.62), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.01), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.51), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.06), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.88)> 0 MISS
Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions
- Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.13% and the XBI was down -0.15%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -1.35 points or – 4.68% at 27.52
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 15):
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.79 after Friday’s +$1.05),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.03),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.51 after Friday’s +$1.19),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.77),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.52),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.31 after Friday’s +$1.26),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.19),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.13),
- Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.08),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.08),
Hammered in today’s market (10 of 19):
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.91 after Friday’s +$4.01),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.64 after Friday’s +$6.00),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.60 after Friday’s +$5.14),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.58 after Friday’s +$2.41),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.73 after Friday’s +$1.06),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.69 after Friday’s +$5.69
- Vericel (-$0.68),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.49),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.22),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.18),
- Biostage (BSTG) -$0.00 with 0 shares traded after yet another $5.1 M Private placement),
- Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector played hop-scotch throughout the session.
It’s nice to be RIGHT about the direction of the sector … more investors should read as I DEVOTE a HUGE amount of time to “figuring” the geography of my coverage group.
“Our” universe is at a crossroads as it struggles to find a bottom; still trading as though it’s experiencing a share pricing scare
Where is the stake in the ground, tying investors down and away from risk which remains HIGH as FEAR lurks beneath the surface of any upside?
Algorithms are usurping investors in share pricing appreciation as we see a surge in the oversold.
We are STILL subject to news and economics - Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of these markets CONTROL of the sector’s movement.
I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.
Q1/22 earnings reporting season has reached the final stretch; it has completed (29 of 35 reported) LPS (loss-per-share) results so far with most reporting companies MISSING estimates and revenues estimates.
I have yet to see one (1) net income!
I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.