May 17, 2022 4:55pm
To alleviate 52-week lows, follow RMI portfolio sector positioning after April/May slips
I STILL believe “we are renting the upside” keep the lows in your minds-eye; the algorithmic “Pac-men” are always lurking! Stay “frosty” … one session does NOT make a market; fear DOES forecast a sub-surface reality regarding sustainability
The BIostage Chronicles: BSTG -$0.89 with 100 shares traded after reporting DISMAL earnings, precarious cash position and an uncharted future; private placement debt defines the future and endangers any sort of financing
Pre-open indications: 8 HIT and 0 MISS
Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets
The Dow closed UP +431.63 points (+1.34%); the S&P closed UP +80.92 points (+2.02%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +321.73 points (+2.76%)
Indexes were higher on Tuesday as the market bounced from a volatile and penalized market for the Nasdaq.
Tuesday's rally followed weeks of selling on the U.S. stock market that last week saw the S&P 500 sink to its lowest level since March 2021. <IBD>
The oversold have been “recognized” by traders and electronic trading but, for how long?
Economic Data Docket: retail sales numbers came in about as expected. Consumer spending on retail rose 0.9% in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.6% in April.
A relevant quote, “We see clear late-cycle indicators, and while the risk of economic growth contraction or recession has risen steadily through the first four-and-a-half months of this year, we are now beginning to cross over a probability level that makes recession a base case for the end of this year and beginning of next,” Darrell Cronk, president of Wells Fargo Investment Institute. <CNBC>
Also, “affecting markets on Tuesday were comments from Fed Chair Powell, who held an interview starting around 2 p.m. ET. Powell said that he will continue to endorse interest rate increases until prices start falling back toward healthy levels again. "We will go until we feel we're at a place where we can say financial conditions are in an appropriate place, we see inflation coming down." <IBD>
52-week and all-time lows: 0 ... thank you
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “not a bouncing sector with better dribbling coming. The cell and gene therapy sector attempts a demonstration of value appreciation” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12439
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Tuesday opened positive at 32 up/2 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/5 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 30/3 and 2 flats.
Pre-open Indications: 8 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.89), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.44), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.53), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.82), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.49), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.37), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.15), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.07) > 0 MISS
Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.85% and the XBI was up +4.38%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -1.37 points or -4.99% at 26.10
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 30):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.44 after Monday’s -$1.60),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.82 after Monday’s -$0.69),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.37 after Monday’s -$2.64),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.15 after Monday’s +$0.52),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.91 after Monday’s +$1.51),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.53 after Monday’s -$2.91),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.10 after Monday’s -$0.68),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.09 after Monday’s -$1.58),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.03),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.96 after Monday’s +$2.03),
Hammered in today’s market (3 of 3):
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.91 after Monday’s +$3.79),
- Biostage (BSTG) -$ 0.89 with 100 shares traded after Monday’s $0.00 with 0 shares traded after yet another $5.1 M Private placement),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.07 after Monday’s +$0.77),
- Precigen (PGEN) and Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY)
- Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 3 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: The sector popped to a positive upside after the cell and gene therapy sector played hop-scotch throughout Monday’s session.
It’s STILL “nice to be RIGHT” about the direction of the sector … more investors should read as I DEVOTE a HUGE amount of time to “figuring” the geography of my coverage group.
“Our” universe is at a crossroads as it struggles to find a bottom; still trading as though it’s experiencing a share pricing scare
We are STILL subject to news and economics - Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of these markets CONTROL of the sector’s movement.
I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.
Q1/22 earnings reporting season has reached the final stretch; it has completed (31 of 35 reported) LPS (loss-per-share) results so far with most reporting companies MISSING estimates and revenues estimates.
I am so GLAD to see one (1) net income – Homology Medicine (FIXX) in this Q1 earnings cycle!
I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What RMi provides is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.