May 18, 2022 4:40pm

On-going elasticity reproduces resistance supported by the thorough lack of confidence and conviction

As I have been writing, “we are renting the upside” keep the lows in your minds-eye; the algorithmic “Pac-men” are lurking! One Tuesday session did NOT mark a sustainable rally; fear DOES forecast a sub-surface reality regarding sustainability.”

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs, 3 MISS and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -1,164.52 points (-3.57%); the S&P closed DOWN -65.17 points (-4.04%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -566.37 points (-4.73 %)

 

Henry’omics:

Markets returned to heavy selling …

Indexes fell sharply on Wednesday after another major retailer warned of rising cost pressures, confirming the fears over inflation that have sent major benchmarks to big losses this year.

The Dow has declined for seven straight weeks, but stocks had stabilized over the previous three trading sessions. Last week, the S&P 500 fell to the brink of a bear market — or 20% below its record high — but the index has recovered slightly since then. 

 

Daily Sector News:

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE -$6.65) entered into an exclusive license agreement with Abeona Therapeutics (ABEO) wherein it will acquire global rights of the latter’s gene therapy candidate ABO-102 (now UX111). The AAV gene therapy candidate, UX111, is currently being evaluated in the open-label, global P1/2 Transpher A study for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A (MPS IIIA), a rare, fatal lysosomal storage disease. Currently, there is no approved therapy for the given indication.

Verastem Oncology (VSTM -$0.00) has received the first "Therapeutic Accelerator Award" from the Pancreatic Cancer Network (PanCAN). The Award will support a Phase 1b/2 clinical trial of the Company’s lead investigational candidates, RAF/MEK Clamp, VS-6766, with FAK inhibitor, defactinib, to evaluate whether a more complete blockade of KRAS signaling, which is mutated in more than 95% of pancreatic cancer tumors, will improve outcomes for patients with front-line metastatic pancreatic cancer.

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.005) has shared new data from the ADVM-022 development program in wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD). It exhibited results of the non-human primate (NHP) studies that provide support for the new 6 X 10^10 vg/eye (6E10) dose that Adverum intends to include in its next clinical trial. These new data suggest the 6x10^10 vg/eye dose may provide therapeutic levels of aflibercept in the clinic and informs our dosing regimen in our upcoming P2 trial.”

MiMedx (MDXG -$0.30):  Prescience Point Capital Management LLC a research investment firm that beneficially owns approximately 6.7% of the outstanding common stock of MDXG issued the following statement: "In recent press releases and letters, MiMedx has misleadingly portrayed Prescience Point as a lone disgruntled shareholder. However, from what we understand, several other large MiMedx shareholders, representing millions of MDXG shares, have sent correspondence to the Company outlining similar concerns to ours. With an important vote coming up at the Company's annual meeting of shareholders on June 7, 2022, we believe it is imperative that shareholders know the truth. As such, we call upon the Board and management to publicly confirm that they have received letters of concern from other large shareholders in recent weeks," stated Eiad Asbahi, Founder and Managing Partner of Prescience Point. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prescience-point-capital-management-calls-125500492.html

 

52-week and all-time lows:

  • Avrobio (AVRO) at $0.74,
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) at $48.70,
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) at $12.72,

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “let’s not be caught off-guard. There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn. Fear remains beneath the strength of positive closes” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12441

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 6 up/27 downs and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/30 and 0 flat, ending with a negative close of 3/31and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs <Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.025), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.74), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.34)> 3 MISS <Avrobio (AVRO -$0.04), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.06), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.20)> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote < Biostage (BSTG +$0.10)>

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 3-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 14 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Wednesday, the IBB was down -2.54% and the XBI was down -4.97%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +4.99 points or +19.12% at 31.09

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (3 of 3):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$2.82 after Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.10 with 980 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$ 0.89 with 100 shares traded after Monday’s $0.00 with 0 shares traded after yet another $5.1 M Private placement),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.005),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 31):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$6.65 after Tuesday’s -$0.91 and Monday’s +$3.79),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.49 after Tuesday’s +$1.91 and Monday’s +$1.51),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.13 after Tuesday’s +$1.03),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.04 after Tuesday’s +$1.53 and Monday’s -$2.91),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.90 after Tuesday’s +$1.09 and Monday’s -$1.58),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.84 after Tuesday’s +$1.10 and Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.58 after Tuesday’s +$0.96 and Monday’s +$2.03),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.39 after Tuesday’s +$2.37 and Monday’s -$2.64),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.16),
  • BioLife SOLUTIONS (BLFS -$1.12),

 

May, Q2/2022:

  • Wednesday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  The sector dived after Tuesday’s positive upside after the cell and gene therapy sector played hop-scotch throughout Monday’s session.

As I wrote (repeating) this a.m., “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn. Fear remains beneath the strength of positive closes” …

“Our” universe is at a crossroads as it struggles to find a bottom; still trading as though it’s experiencing a share pricing scare

We are STILL subject to news and economics - Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of these markets CONTROL of the sector’s movement.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

Q1/22 earnings reporting season has reached the final stretch; it has completed (31 of 35 reported) LPS (loss-per-share) results so far with most reporting companies MISSING estimates and revenues estimates.

I am so GLAD to see one (1) net income – Homology Medicine (FIXX) in this Q1 earnings cycle!

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.