May 19, 2022 4:55pm
This week, two (2) sessions do NOT mark a sustainable rally; FEAR is a sub-surface reality regarding sustainability. As I have been writing, “we are renting the upside”; keep the lows in your minds-eye. The algorithmic “Pac-men” are STILL lurking!
Pre-open indications: 3 HITs, 3 MISS and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -236.81 points (-0.75%); the S&P closed DOWN -22.95 points (-0.58%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -29.66 points (-0.26%)
Indexes struggled to a sharp sell-off from Wednesday’s session’s decline following disappointing retail earnings that reignited concerns about the impact of inflation.
The Nasdaq briefly reversed higher and then dropped as the market’s negative trading on Thursday after an eye-watering decline of -4.73% on Wednesday.
Uncertainty around the pace and magnitude of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle has stoked pressure across equity markets that has persisted throughout the year as investors worry over the prospect of an economic slowdown if the central bank acts too aggressively.” <Yahoo! Finance>
Interesting Factor: Volume was up on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared with the same time Wednesday.
Small caps stood out by sliding higher, though it closed off highs. The Russell 2000 rose 0.1%.
Economic Data Docket: U.S. jobless claims, which came in worse than expected, were also affecting markets ....
- Jobless claims rose to 218,000 last week from a revised 197,000 the previous week. Economists had expected claims to stay at 197,000.
- Existing-home sales fell 2.4% in April to a 5.61 million annualized rate, from a revised 5.75 million annualized in March. Existing-home sales in April fell 5.9% from April 2021. Both numbers add to the drop in housing starts and housing permits as reported on Wednesday.
52-week and all-time lows:
- Regenxbio (RGNX) at $18.87,
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) at $47.21,
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “another session is about to be kicked down the “Street”. External forces: rising inflation and higher interest rates have sparked sell-offs in risk equity assets. Investors have numerous reasons to be cautious … although I am attracted to 52-weeks even if “early” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12443
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Thursday opened positive at 18 up/17 downs and 0 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/13 and 0 flat, ending with a positive close of 25/8 and 2 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.26), Vericel (VCEL +$0.91), Avrobio (AVRO +$0.024)> 3 MISS < Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.48), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.08), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.23)> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote < Biostage (BSTG +$0.63 with 916 shares traded)>
Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions
- Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 9 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was up +1.29% and the XBI was up +2.25%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -1.61 points or -5.20% at 29.35
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 25):
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.91 after Wednesday’s -$2.04, Tuesday’s +$1.53 and Monday’s -$2.91),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.73 after Thursday’s +$0.40, Tuesday’s +$2.82 after Monday’s -$0.69),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.26 after Wednesday’s -$1.16),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.91 after Wednesday’s -$1.84, Tuesday’s +$1.10 and Monday’s -$0.68),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.77 after Wednesday’s -$1.39, Tuesday’s +$2.37 and Monday’s -$2.64),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.74),
- Cellectis (CLLS +$0.66),
- Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.63 with 916 shares traded after Wednesdays +$0.10 with 980 shares traded, Tuesday’s $ 0.89 with 100 shares traded and Monday’s $0.00 with 0 shares traded after yet another $5.1 M Private placement),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.57 after Wednesday’s -$1.90, Tuesday’s +$1.09 and Monday’s -$1.58),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.45 after Wednesday’s -$1.12),
Hammered in today’s market (8 of 8):
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.70 after Wednesday’s -$6.65, Tuesday’s -$0.91 and Monday’s +$3.79),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.48
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.35),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.20 after Wednesday’s -$1.58, Tuesday’s +$0.96 and Monday’s +$2.03),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.07),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.03),
- UniQure NV (QURE -$0.01),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0098)
- Mesoblast (MESO)
- Precigen (PGEN)
- Thursday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: Change is the epidemic as the cell and gene therapy sector is very volatile, after two (2) negative sessions and two (2) positive session (Tuesday and Thursday) this week so far.
The sector jumped to the upside on Thursday after Wednesday’s downslide following Tuesday’s positive upside and Monday’s negative close with the cell and gene therapy sector playing hop-scotch throughout the week so far.
Investors have become accustomed to significant downside and upside moves in sector equities, which is common during times of tremendous uncertainty.
As I wrote (repeating) this a.m., “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn. Fear remains beneath the strength of positive closes” …
“Our” universe is at a crossroads as it struggles to find a bottom; still trading as though it’s experiencing a share pricing scare
Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of algorithms as these CONTROL the sector’s movement.
I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.
Q1/22 earnings reporting season has reached the final stretch; it has completed (31 of 35 reported) LPS (loss-per-share) results so far with most reporting companies MISSING estimates and revenues estimates.
I am so GLAD to see one (1) net income – Homology Medicine (FIXX) in this Q1 earnings cycle!
I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.