May 20, 2022 4:54pm

As confidence and conviction withers and regains as Pac-man algos munched away

It’s nice to be more then frequently right to the ebb and flow of share pricing

News: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.16) presented data from Atrasentan P2 AFFINITY IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) providing clinically meaningful proteinuria reduction in patients with IgAN. Atrasentan demonstrated 38.0% proteinuria reduction at six weeks of treatment, 49.9% proteinuria reduction at 12 weeks of treatment and 58.5% reduction at 24 weeks of treatment

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 1 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

The week in review …

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets

 

The Dow closed UP +8.87 points (+0.03%); the S&P closed UP +0.57 points (+0.01%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -33.88 points (-0.30%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes were lower on Friday, in a steep dive as weekly losses reflects resistance and the expression of inflation resurging this week.

The losses Friday for the major U.S. stock indexes extended a slide seen earlier this week. The Dow shed more than 250 points, or 0.8%, shortly before 11:30 a.m. ET, and the Nasdaq dropped more than 1%.

Nasdaq paced toward weekly losses of -3.8% and trading 30% off its highs.

 

Interesting (RISK) Factor: Bayer AG (OTCBAYRY)Terminates CAR-T Collaboration with Atara Biotherapeutics (ATRA); a two-year-old partnership to develop off-the-shelf T-cell immunotherapy for high mesothelin-expressing tumors. ATRA re-assess its strategy for our mesothelin CAR T program. Upon termination from the agreement in September 2022, ATRA will have full rights to continue the clinical development and future commercialization of its programs worldwide and will postpone the anticipated IND filing for ATA3271 beyond the Q4/22.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “volatility rally under risk pressures. Barely an aftermarket response to Thursday’s session as bottom fishing lacks little strength” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12445

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday opened positive at 25 up/8 downs and 2 flats, dived negative at the mid-day to 5/29 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 20/14 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday opened positive at 18 up/17 downs and 0 flat, dived positive at the mid-day at 22/13 and 0 flat, ending with a positive close of 25/8 and 2 flat.
  • Wednesday opened negative at 6 up/27 downs and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/30 and 0 flat, ending with a negative close of 3/31and 1 flat.
  • Tuesday opened positive at 32 up/2 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/5 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 30/3 and 2 flats.
  • Monday opened negative at 12 up/20 downs and 3 flats, flipped neutral at the mid-day at 17/17 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 15/19 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.15), Vericel (VCEL -$0.40); BUY: Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.55)> 1 MISS <Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.70)>

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions …

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 20-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 14-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 9 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 3-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 14 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.50% and the XBI was up +1.41%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.29% and the XBI was up +2.25%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -2.54% and the XBI was down-4.97%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.85% and the XBI was up +4.38%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.13% and the XBI was down -0.15%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.44 points or +1.50% at 29.79
  • Thursday was down -1.61 points or -5.20% at 29.35
  • Wednesday was up +4.99 points or +19.12% at 31.09
  • Tuesday was down -1.37 points or -4.99% at 26.10
  • Monday was down -1.35 points or – 4.68% at 27.52

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 20):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.91),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.55 after Thursday’s -$0.70, Wednesday’s -$6.65, Tuesday’s -$0.91 and Monday’s +$3.79),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.25 after Thursday’s +$1.91, Wednesday’s -$2.04, Tuesday’s +$1.53 and Monday’s -$2.91),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.16 after Thursday’s +$1.26 and Wednesday’s -$1.16),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.77 after Thursday’s +$0.45 and Wednesday’s -$1.12),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.70 after Thursday’s +$0.57, Wednesday’s -$1.90, Tuesday’s +$1.09 and Monday’s -$1.58),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.70),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.49 after Thursday’s -$0.20, Wednesday’s -$1.58, Tuesday’s +$0.96 and Monday’s +$2.03),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.48 after Thursday’s -$0.35),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.43),

Hammered in today’s market (14 of 14):

  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.36 after Thursday’s -$0.48),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.91, Wednesday’s -$1.84, Tuesday’s +$1.10 and Monday’s -$0.68),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.15 after Thursday’s +$1.73, Thursday’s +$0.40, Tuesday’s +$2.82 after Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Cellectis (CLLS -$0.15 after Thursday’s +$0.66),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.07),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.09),
  • Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI -$0.09),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.08),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0294),
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.02),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.01),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.03),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

 

May, Q2/2022:

  • Friday closed positive with 20 incliner, 14 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 3 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing in these daily and weekly posts.

As I have written, change is the epidemic as the cell and gene therapy sector is so volatile, after three (3) negative sessions (Monday, Wednesday and Friday) and two (2) positive session (Tuesday and Thursday) this week.

Investors have become accustomed to significant downside and upside moves in sector equities, which is common during times of tremendous uncertainty.

Again, as have I written (repeating), “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn as fear remains beneath the strength of any positive close” …

Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the pressures of algorithms as these CONTROL the sector’s movement.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

Q1/22 earnings reporting season has reached the final stretch; it has completed (32 of 35 reported) LPS (loss-per-share) results so far with most reporting companies MISSING estimates and revenues estimates.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.