May 23, 2022 4:56pm
Another I told you so, as I saw, felt and said - HOLD as a dive was coming having also stated, “What “pops” in the morning session will more than probably fade by the close.”
Pre-open indications: 1 HIT
News: -Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.69) new positive results from an 18-month analysis of exploratory cardiac endpoints in the HELIOS-A P3 study of vutrisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in development for the treatment of transthyretin-mediated (ATTR) amyloidosis. The 18-month findings show that in a pre-defined cardiac subpopulation, treatment with vutrisiran was associated with improvements in exploratory cardiac endpoints relative to external placebo, including levels of NT-proBNP, a measure of cardiac stress, and a trend towards improvement in echocardiographic parameters.
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +618.34 points (1.98%); the S&P closed UP +72.39 points (+1.86%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +180.66 points (+1.59%)
Indexes bounced-back on Monday after eight straight losing weeks for “some” stocks.
Two quotes that sum-up the current status of our markets:
"It looks like a reflex rally," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. "Investors are following through of the bullish last hour on Friday, taking advantage of the market bouncing off of what seems to be a resistance level." <Reuters>
“With so many stocks down significantly year to date, it won’t be surprising to see a brief reprieve in U.S. markets today,” said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at Mission Square Retirement. “However, with the given challenges related to inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical events as we come into the summer months, investors should expect continued volatility in the near term.”
Volume was down on both the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange; this is disappointing on an up day. <IBD>
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “rotations as volatility reigns. It's always time to de-risk after HIGHs; keeping a minimal exposure, if not stay on sidelines. What “pops” in the morning session will more than probably fade by the close” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12447
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Monday opened negative at 13 up/21 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21 and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 7/25 and 3 flats.
- Friday opened positive at 25 up/8 downs and 2 flats, dived negative at the mid-day to 5/29 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 20/14 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 1 HIT < Biostage (BSTG $0.00 with zero shares traded)
Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions …
- Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 20-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 14-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.72% and the XBI was down -0.27%
- Friday, the IBB was up +0.50% and the XBI was up +1.41%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -0.99 points or -3.36 % at 28.44
- Friday was up +0.44 points or +1.50% at 29.79
Jumping with share pricing momentum (7 of 7):
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.52 after Friday’s -$0.13),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.20 after Friday’s +$0.77),
- Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI +$0.06 after Friday’s -$0.09),
- Avrobio (AVRO +$0.048),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.03 after Friday’s -$0.36),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.02 after Friday’s -$0.07),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.01 after Friday’s -$0.01),
Hammered in today’s market (10 of 25):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.69 after Friday’s +$2.91),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.63 after Friday’s -$0.15),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.76 after Friday’s +$0.70),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.61 after Friday’s +$1.55),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.56 after Friday’s +$0.49),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.52 after Friday’s +$0.43),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.50 after Friday’s +$0.70),
- Intellia therapeutics (NTLA -$0.42),
- uniQure NV (QURE (-$0.36),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.24 after Friday’s +$1.16),
- Agenus (AGEN), Biostage (BSTG) and Verastem (VSTM)
- Monday closed negative with 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
- Friday closed positive with 20 incliner, 14 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: The continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing in these daily and weekly posts.
As I have written, change is the epidemic as the cell and gene therapy sector is so volatile, investors have become accustomed to significant downside and upside moves in sector equities, which is common during times of tremendous uncertainty.
Again, as have I written (repeatedly), “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn as fear remains beneath the strength of any positive close” …
Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to BELIEVE and get beyond the “rules” of algorithms as these CONTROL the sector’s movement.
I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.
I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.