June 1, 2022 4:42pm

Condemned eternally to repeatedly roll a heavy rock up a hill only to have it roll down again as it nears the top

Pre-open indications:  4 HITs and 6 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -176.89 points (-0.54%); the S&P closed DOWN -30.92 points (-0.75%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -86.93 points (-0.72%)

 

Henry’omics:

After a holiday break on Monday, a Tuesday roll-over that ended with a negative (Advance/Decline Line) close of 7/28; the cell and gene therapy equities are coasting down again, continually eaten by electronic trading.

Appropriate quote, “We probably see volatility for the first half of June, and maybe a decent portion of June, because we’re not going to have any new information that calms us down before then,” SoFi’s head of investment strategy Liz Youn”.

Concerns over tighter monetary policy gained even more steam Wednesday, after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing PMI came in at 56.1 for May, up from 55.4 the previous month. Meanwhile, job openings fell sharply for April, but remained high relative to historical levels. <CNBC>

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: expectation depends on which index the algorithms “rule” first? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12453

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 14 up/19 downs and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 4/31, ending with a negative close of 6/29 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.37 with 100 shares traded), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU $0.00), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.97), Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.14); 6 MISS < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.18), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.15), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.36), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.42), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.47), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.92),

 

Key Metrics: 

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 6-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 6 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.05% and the XBI was down -1.80%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.50 points or -1.91% at 25.69

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (6 of 6):

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.97 after Tuesday’s -$0.97 with news),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.45),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.74),
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.01),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.05),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.03),

Closing down (10 of 29):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.28 after Tuesday’s -$2.61),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.75 after Tuesday’s -$1.97),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.89),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$1.21),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.83 after Tuesday’s -$0.92),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.76 after Tuesday’s -$1.74),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.72),
  • Ionis therapeutics (IONS -$0.61),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.47),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.42),

Flat:

  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)

 

June, Q2/2022: month’s end

  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Some sessions I feel like Sisyphus … eternally to repeatedly roll a heavy rock up a hill … only to have it roll down again as it nears the top … as I watch the roller-coaster go round.

Sisyphus teaches us to never give in to circumstantial disappointments or try to escape from the failures, rather accept failures the same way we accept our achievements. And most importantly, no matter how much we lose in our quest, we must never back down till we fulfill our potential.

WHY is “our” universe of cell and gene therapy sector slipping, it goes beyond algorithms “raping” share pricing …

The week began with downbeat “misses” -- A missed primary endpoint in new top-line results from a Japanese trial with the stem cell therapy for stroke MultiStem hits Athersys (ATHX) and Japanese partner (Helios) hard, casting a shadow over ongoing studies. While the FDA is delaying BioMarin’s (BMRN) hemophilia A quest as gene therapy frets simmer -- two years after the FDA turned back BMRN’s push for a landmark accelerated approval of their hemophilia A gene therapy valrox, regulators are asking for still more info on the therapy — and once again delaying any prospective launch, this time into next year.

Then the news flowed as Sage Therapeutics’ (SAGE) stock popped today after its Biogen (BIIB) partnered treatment for postpartum depression met every goal in a final-phase study.

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

As I have written, change is an epidemic as the cell and gene therapy sector is so volatile – we are LUCKY these last few days; while investors have become accustomed to significant downside and upside moves in sector equities, which are so common during times of tremendous uncertainty.

Again, as have I written (repeatedly), “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn as fear remains beneath the strength of any positive close” …

Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the “rules” of algorithms as these CONTROL the sector’s movement.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.