June 2, 2022 4:43pm

As I wrote this a.m., the wall of worry was to be climbed; investor fatigue still facilitates diminished investor sentiment

As usual, more frequently right than wrong as I never leave investors uninformed

Pre-open indications:  11 HITs and 0 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +435.05 points (+1.33%); the S&P closed UP +75.59 points (+1.84%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +322.44 points (+2.69%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose Thursday in another back-and-forth session after concerns over the economy weighed on sentiment in morning trading.

The Nasdaq was firmly higher, as all three indexes attempt to bounce back from two (2) straight days of losses in a downbeat start to the week.

The three averages are now on pace for a positive week. The indexes are now solidly off their lows of the year. The Dow is 8.5% higher, the S&P 500 is up 9.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 11.6% from their respective 52-week lows.

Employment data showed the slowest job creation pace of the pandemic-era recovery.

Economic Data Docket: The Labor Department's latest weekly jobless claims report showed applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell to 200,000 in a sign labor market conditions remain a bright spot in the economy amid mounting worries of a slowdown. On the other hand, job creation in the U.S. private sector dropped off sharply last month to the slowest pace of growth in the COVID-era recovery, according to ADP's private payrolls report.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “The cell and gene therapy sector climbs a wall of worry yet, there's still a lot to worry about. Sentiment is slippery with more than a lot of uncertainty” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12455

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Thursday opened negative at 15 up/18 downs and 2 flats, flipped positive at the mid-day to 30/4 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 11 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.00 with 1 share traded), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.032), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.80), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.13), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.57), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.99), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.81), Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.40), Vericel (VCEL +$1.21), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.01), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.04)> 0 MISS     

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions …

  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 1 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.80% and the XBI was up +1.84%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -1.10 points or -4.28% at 24.59

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.82 after Wednesday’s -$0.76 and Tuesday’s -$1.74),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.13 after Wednesday’s -$0.18 and Tuesday’s -$0.29),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.82),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.47 after Wednesday’s +$2.97 and Tuesday’s -$0.97 with clinical news),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.45 after Wednesday’s -$2.75 and Tuesday’s -$1.97),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.81 after Wednesday’s -$3.28 and Tuesday’s -$2.61),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.21 after Wednesday’s -$0.83 and Tuesday’s -$0.92),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.89 after Wednesday’s -$0.92 and Tuesday’s -$1.21),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.36 and Tuesday’s +$1.60),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.73 after Wednesday’s -$0.47),

Closing down (6 of 6):

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.05 after Wednesday’s +$0.03),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.05),
  • Ionis Therapeutics (IONS -$0.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.61),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.02),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.01),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

 

June, Q2/2022:

  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.

Technicals and fundamentals are STILL ignored … for a reason – it’s about the continual LPS (loss-per-share) status of the cell and gene therapy sector.

I continue to expose the feeling of in “Some sessions I feel like Sisyphus … eternally to repeatedly roll a heavy rock up a hill … only to have it roll down again as it nears the top … as I watch the roller-coaster go round.

Reiterating, “Sisyphus teaches us to never give in to circumstantial disappointments or try to escape from the failures, rather accept failures the same way we accept our achievements. And most importantly, no matter how much we lose in our quest, we must never back down till we fulfill our potential.”

WHY is “our” universe of cell and gene therapy sector slipping, it goes beyond algorithms “raping” share pricing …

What did I write in the title, “investor fatigue still facilitates diminished investor sentiment?”

The week began with downbeat “misses” -- A missed primary endpoint in new top-line results from a Japanese trial with the stem cell therapy for stroke MultiStem hits Athersys (ATHX) and Japanese partner (Helios) hard, casting a shadow over ongoing studies. While the FDA is delaying BioMarin’s (BMRN) hemophilia A quest as gene therapy frets simmer -- two years after the FDA turned back BMRN’s push for a landmark accelerated approval of their hemophilia A gene therapy valrox, regulators are asking for still more info on the therapy — and once again delaying any prospective launch, this time into next year.

Then the news flowed as Sage Therapeutics’ (SAGE) stock popped today after its Biogen (BIIB)-partnered treatment for postpartum depression met every goal in a final-phase study.

Hope abounds:

  • “After the market closed Wednesday, Repare Therapeutics (RPTX) announced that it had entered into a licensing and collaboration deal with Roche (OTC: RHHBY) for its experimental cancer drug, camonsertib, also known as RP-3500. In the wake of that news, RPTX shares skyrocketed, and were up by 36.5% as of 11:58 a.m. ET on Thursday. The spectacular gain Thursday seems to be warranted, especially in light of the details of its agreement with the Swiss healthcare giant. <The Motley Fool>
  • “An experimental treatment appears to have been successful in halting the progression of one woman's advanced pancreatic cancer, doctors reported Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. The apparent success of the therapy — which involves tweaking the genes of immune cells so that they attack tumor cells — could be a major step forward in the treatment of not only pancreatic cancer, but other cancers as well.” < https://www.yahoo.com/news/experimental-gene-therapy-helps-pancreatic-210019995.html  > <NBC News>

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

As I have written, change is an epidemic as the cell and gene therapy sector is so volatile – we are LUCKY these last few days; while investors have become accustomed to significant downside and upside moves in sector equities, which are so common during times of tremendous uncertainty.

Again, as have I written (repeatedly), “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn as fear remains beneath the strength of any positive close” …

Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the “rules” of algorithms as these CONTROL the sector’s movement.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.