June 3, 2022 6:31pm

Luck enhanced a Friday positive sector spiral with mostly low percentage “moves” side-by-side low negative “dives”

I never leave investors uninformed

Pre-open indications:  3 HITs and 6 MISS <wait for next week’s declines>

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site

The week in review – what happened and to whom?


If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -348.58 points (-1.05%); the S&P closed DOWN -68.28 points (-1.63%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -304.16 points (-2.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell down the stairs on Friday closing the week lower after digesting a stronger-than-expected jobs report and its implication for monetary policy going forward.

Traders selling stocks likely reacted to the move higher in rates with fears of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy at the forefront. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed after the report, above the 2.9% level.

“Numbers this strong would likely reverse any hopes the Fed would consider a pause in rate hikes after the June/July increases, because it would signal the labor market remains very tight,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Nonfarm payrolls added 390,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported as economists expected 328,000 jobs added.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “what’s actionable? Sector equities are cheap but, share pricing is continually suspect. Seems that algorithms usually stimulate a “Quickening”, so who or which equity is going to lose its share pricing head?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12458

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday opened positive at 21 up/12 downs and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 20/13 and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 27/8.
  • Thursday opened negative at 15 up/18 downs and 2 flats, flipped positive at the mid-day to 30/4 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday opened negative at 14 up/19 downs and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 4/31, ending with a negative close of 6/29 and 1 flat.
  • Tuesday opened negative at 6 up/25 downs and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/26, ending with a negative close of 7/28.
  • Monday was a market holiday,

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.30 with 250 shares traded), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.28), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.10)> 6 MISS < Vericel (VCEL -$0.29), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.43), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.37), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.64), Ultragenyx (RARE +1.45), UniQure NV (QURE +$0.28)>

 

Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions …

  • Friday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 13 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 1 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 1 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 6-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 6 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 17 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday – holiday 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.12% and the XBI was up +3.55%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.80% and the XBI was up +1.84%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.05% and the XBI was down -1.80%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.37% and the XBI was down -3.25%
  • Monday- holiday

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.07 points or 0.28% at 24.79
  • Thursday was down -1.10 points or -4.28% at 24.59
  • Wednesday was down -0.50 points or -1.91% at 25.69
  • Tuesday was down -0.35 points or -1.32% at 26.19
  • Monday – holiday

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 27): wait for next week’s declines …

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.02 after Thursday’s +$2.45, Wednesday’s -$2.75 and Tuesday’s -$1.97),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.21 after Thursday’s +$3.13, Wednesday’s -$0.18 and Tuesday’s -$0.29),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.45 after Thursday’s +$3.82, Wednesday’s -$0.76 and Tuesday’s -$1.74),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.41),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.26),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.10 after Thursday’s +$0.89, Wednesday’s -$0.92 and Tuesday’s -$1.21),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.64 after Thursday’s +$1.81, Wednesday’s -$3.28 and Tuesday’s -$2.61),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.43 after Thursday’s +$2.82),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.37),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.33),

Closing down (8 of 8):

  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.59),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.80, Wednesday’s -$0.36 and Tuesday’s +$1.60),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.33 after Thursday’s
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.29 after Thursday’s +$1.21, Wednesday’s -$0.83 and Tuesday’s -$0.92),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.28),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.05),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.02),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0086),

 

June, Q2/2022:

  • Friday closed positive with 27 incliner and 8 decliners
  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: It’s very hard to have consecutive sessions or days of strength – yet we did in a holiday shortened week!

… Because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell,”

Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.

At the time in June, as consecutive upside sessions are ominous as dramatic upsides after downslides open the door to electronic trading appetites!

Review to downside eight (8) percentages … -0.61% to a low of -19.18%; while the twenty-eight (28) upside percentages (%) ranged from +0.60% to +8.80% with one (1) runaway of +17.33% (Homology Medicine - FIXX)

So, what comes next; a pullback wasn't be a big surprise after strong gains.

Technicals and fundamentals are STILL ignored … for a reason – it’s about the continual LPS (loss-per-share) status of the cell and gene therapy sector.

What changed the sector remained positive with low a percentage upside …

I continue to expose the feeling of in “Some sessions I feel like Sisyphus … eternally to repeatedly roll a heavy rock up a hill … only to have it roll down again as it nears the top … as I watch the roller-coaster go round.

Reiterating, “Sisyphus teaches us to never give in to circumstantial disappointments or try to escape from the failures, rather accept failures the same way we accept our achievements. And most importantly, no matter how much we lose in our quest, we must never back down till we fulfill our potential.”

WHY is “our” universe of cell and gene therapy sector slipping, it goes beyond algorithms “raping” share pricing …

What did I write in the title, “investor fatigue still facilitates diminished investor sentiment?”

The week began with downbeat “misses” -- A missed primary endpoint in new top-line results from a Japanese trial with the stem cell therapy for stroke MultiStem hits Athersys (ATHX) and Japanese partner (Helios) hard, casting a shadow over ongoing studies. ATHX fired 70% of the staff as it trades at $0.24.  I foresaw tis happening months ago and DROPPED coverage of ATHX as the NEW CEO was brought-in, he was a “spoiler” – wait for the bankruptcy court.

While the FDA is delaying BioMarin’s (BMRN) hemophilia A quest as gene therapy frets simmer -- two years after the FDA turned back BMRN’s push for a landmark accelerated approval of their hemophilia A gene therapy valrox, regulators are asking for still more info on the therapy — and once again delaying any prospective launch, this time into next year.

Then the news flowed as Sage Therapeutics’ (SAGE) stock popped today after its Biogen (BIIB)-partnered treatment for postpartum depression met every goal in a final-phase study.

Hope abounds:

  • “After the market closed Wednesday, Repare Therapeutics (RPTX) announced that it had entered into a licensing and collaboration deal with Roche (OTC: RHHBY) for its experimental cancer drug, camonsertib, also known as RP-3500. In the wake of that news, RPTX shares skyrocketed, and were up by 36.5% as of 11:58 a.m. ET on Thursday. The spectacular gain Thursday seems to be warranted, especially in light of the details of its agreement with the Swiss healthcare giant. <The Motley Fool>
  • “An experimental treatment appears to have been successful in halting the progression of one woman's advanced pancreatic cancer, doctors reported Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.The apparent success of the therapy — which involves tweaking the genes of immune cells so that they attack tumor cells — could be a major step forward in the treatment of not only pancreatic cancer, but other cancers as well.” < https://www.yahoo.com/news/experimental-gene-therapy-helps-pancreatic-210019995.html  > <NBC News>

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

As I have written, change is an epidemic as the cell and gene therapy sector is so volatile – we are LUCKY these last few days; while investors have become accustomed to significant downside and upside moves in sector equities, which are so common during times of tremendous uncertainty.

Again, as have I written (repeatedly), “There's a battle in the cell and gene therapy sector between which or what breaks first: share pricing resilience or tumbling into yet another downturn as fear remains beneath the strength of any positive close” …

Investors NEED a blossoming of catalysts to strengthen their capacity to get beyond the “rules” of algorithms as these CONTROL the sector’s movement.

I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.

I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.