RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: Bada Bing, emphasizing a run-up regarded as sudden; yet, not surprising

June 17, 2022 4:53pm

Volatility and inflation are taking its toll on investor sentiment is a set-up as a “perfect storm” in a combination of adverse economic, market fears and quadruple witching.

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs, 3 MISS – made profit in selling and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site

The week in review - what happened and to whom, the root metrics

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

The Dow closed DOWN -38.29 points (-0.13%); the S&P closed UP +8.07 points (+0.22%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +152.25 points (+1.43%)

Henry’omics:

The indexes were mixed as the Nasdaq remained in the green.

All indexes are all on track to close with weekly losses.

For the week, the Dow is down -5%, the S&P -6% and the Nasdaq dived -5%.

Market volatility was heightened Friday experiencing “quadruple witching.” This refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, single-stock futures, stock options and stock index options, which happens once a quarter. It typically leads to a surge in trading volume, making for choppy trading action as traders close out positions. <CNBC>

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “who’s worried, not me and my hands DON’T shake as I review the sector’s low and its geography. It’s just a game of cycles.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12478

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

• Friday opened positive at 30 up/ 3 down and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 34/0 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 33/2.
• Thursday opened negative at 1 up/ 31 down and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/28, ending with a negative close of 7/28.
• Wednesday opened negative at 27 up/ 1 downs and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 20/7 and 2 flats.
• Tuesday opened negative at 16 up/ 17 downs and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/26, ending with a negative close of 11/22 and 2 flats.
• Monday opened negative at 2 up/ 31 downs and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 3/32, ending with a negative close of 33/2.

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.51), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.36), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.50) > 3 MISS < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.27), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$2.23), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.53) – profit was made> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote

Key Metrics: review the volume and measurement disparities between daily sessions …

• Friday - Sector volume was HIGH with 26 of the 33-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 2-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Thursday - Sector volume was HIGH with 5 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with MODERATE volume of 12 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Wednesday - Sector volume was HIGH with 14 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 4 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Tuesday - Sector volume was HIGH with 6 of the 11-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 5 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 2-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 22 of 33-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Friday, the IBB was up +3.53% and the XBI was up +5.69%
• Thursday, the IBB was down -2.61% and the XBI was down -2.60%
• Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.29% and the XBI was up+3.55%
• Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.25 % and the XBI was up +0.16%
• Monday, the IBB was down -4.08% and the XBI was down -5.53%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Friday was down -1.83 points or -5.55% at 31.12
• Thursday was up+3.51 points or +11.85% at 33.13
• Wednesday was down -3.32 points or -10.16% at 29.37
• Tuesday was down -1.60 points or -4.70% at 32.42
• Monday was up +6.27 points or +22.59% at 34.02

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 33):

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.36 after Thursday’s +$1.98, Tuesday’s +$2.84 and Monday’s -$8.49),
• Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.54 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Tuesday’s +$0.97 and Monday’s -$3.22)
• Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.29 after Thursday’ -$0.69),
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.83 after Thursday’s +0.64 and Tuesday’s -$0.24),
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.50 after Thursday’s -$1.21, Tuesday’s -$0.13 and Monday’s -$2.58),
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.27 after Thursday’s -$0.63, Tuesday’s +$5.82 and Monday’s -$4.41),
• Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$2.23),
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.68),
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.54 after Thursday’s +$0.51 after Tuesday’s -$0.47 and Monday’s -$3.49),

Closing down (2 of 2):

• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03 after Thursday’s +$0.01 and Tuesday’s +$0.13),
• Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0118),

June, Q2/2022:

• Friday closed positive with 33 incliner and 2 decliners 
• Thursday closed negative with 7 incliner, 28 decliners and 0 flat
• Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
• Tuesday closed negative with 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats
• Monday closed negative with 2 incliner and 33 decliners

The BOTTOM LINE: Up, down, back and forth … it’s a CONSTANT tug-of-war of share pricing!

Cell and gene therapy equities finished sharply lower Thursday, giving back almost all of the previous sessions' (Wednesday) upside, Tuesday’s and Monday’s negative closes.

Another session for an algorithm “rule” for our universe.

Investors should watch of the bounces and question what will be sustainable with the current support because that would signal that offer buy opportunities later on. 

HOLD on tight.

We always need a villain – Inflation affects the market and conversely the sector with downslides has remained a dominant issue for investors.

Which investors will be BUYING equities if we can barely afford gas and food!

I try to keep it simple and short … because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell – it has become a process of developing ROI (return of investment).”

Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.