June 28, 2022 4:50pm

They keep turning and turning the share price to devour any upside

Pre-open indications: 1 HIT, 5 MISS and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -491.27 points (-1.56%); the S&P closed DOWN -78.56 points (-2.01%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -343.01 points (-2.98%)

 

Henry’omics:

The major stock market indexes deepened losses …  tumbling in a broad sell-off on Tuesday as dire consumer confidence data dampened investor optimism and fueled worries that the Federal Reserve's aggressive battle against inflation could tip the economy into recession.

All three indexes are on course to notch two straight quarterly declines for the first time since 2015.

“Consumers are losing confidence in the economy as shown in the consumer confidence survey for June, which fell to 98.7. The consensus forecast was for 101. Looking at the 2022 outlook”, says Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, "if consumers start to rein in their spending, the second half will be considerably weaker, as we anticipate." <IBD>

Nasdaq volume is up 3% compared with the same time on Monday.

Economic Data Docket: report showed US consumer confidence deteriorated to a 16-month low in June amid ongoing inflation concerns, stoking concerns that souring outlooks would contribute to a further slowdown in actual spending and activity.

·         The consumer confidence index fell to a reading of 98.7, down from 103.2 in May and missing a Dow Jones estimate of 100, according to The Conference Board.

 

All-time low:

  • Mesoblast (MESO) at $2.29

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “snap, crackle and pop. Catalysts if any are not swaying investor sentiment; 2nd quarter reporting period is being prepared” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12491

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 11 up/ 24 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/28 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 8/27.
  • Monday opened negative at 7 up/ 27 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18 and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 11/22 and 2 flats.

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 HIT <Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.09)> 5 MISS < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.29), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.26), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.73), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.69), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.62)> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote < Biostage (BSTG +$0.20 with 372 shares traded)>

 

Key Metrics: review the volume disparities between daily sessions …

  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 7 of 27-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the11-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 11 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.30% and the XBI was down -3.57%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.08% and the XBI was down -0.34%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +1.44 points or +5.34% at 28.36
  • Monday was down -0.26 points or -1.03% at 26.95

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (8 of 8):

  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.20 after Monday and Friday’s $0.00),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.11),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.09 after Monday’s -$2.04),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (B:CM +$0.059),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.05),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0385),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.03 after Monday’s +$0.05),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.118),

Closing down (10 of 27):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.29 after Monday’s -$1.01),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.62),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.69 after Monday’s +$0.58),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.45 after Monday’s +$0.61),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.39 after Monday’s +$1.28),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.50 after Monday’s -$0.55),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.47 after Monday’s -$0.65),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.37),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.37 after Monday’s +$0.09),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.28),

 

June, Q2/2022:

  • Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliner and 27 decliners
  • Monday (6/27) closed negative with 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Tuesday is a wipe-out, after a drubbing from two (2) sessions of losses on Monday, that followed two (2) positive closes; the sector resume its downward trend Tuesday as the Nasdaq climbed as much as 1% but reversed lower to a loss of 0.6%.

At some point this aggressive selling is going to dissipate but it doesn't seem like it's going to be anytime soon.

Cell and gene therapy equity investors remain closely attuned to deceleration of share pricing with inflation continuing to run at multi-decade highs and monetary policymakers maintaining a firm stance that their priority remains bringing down prices even at the expense of some growth.

Question, BUY the dips or put gas in the car to overpay at the supermarket!

With quarterly corporate earnings season set the pick-up in the next few weeks, the focus will soon shift to how companies have been “dimed” (i.e., 10%) percentage down navigating persistent conviction issues alongside softening sentiment.

I think we're going to have a 2H (second half) that's frustrating investors and frustrating the shorts - hedge funds and freaking-out long-term holders, bouncing around the economy slowing,

Share pricing is fluctuating as the sector and market rebalance with the month, 1H and quarter comes to a close.

Something I disdain and infrequently write about are … Price Targets … they have gotten so bad and inflated yet have NOT been reset.

Also, many i.e., most cell and gene therapy companies have NOT reset their internal stock award plans – so another disenfranchised investor (and employees) have their ire elevated as loyalty drains their capacity to be loyal and waiting for the next headhunter call.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying.

I try to keep it simple and short … because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell – it has become a process of developing ROI (return of investment).”

Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.