July 5, 2022 5:21pm
Which will open the barn door for the algos and electronic trading to reap today’s share pricing benefits
Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote
A good session to profit and build cash
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of share pricing
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -129.44 points (-0.42%); the S&P closed UP +6.06 points (+0.16%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +194.39 points (+1.75%)
The Dow saw steep losses in trading but remained negative as the Nasdaq and S&P turned positive.
The Dow got hit the hardest, at one point in time down more than 700 points earlier today and off 570 at midday.
The market has dropped in four (4) of the past five (5) weeks.
Investors agonized about the possibility of a recession as central banks across the world take aggressive actions to stem a surge in inflation.
Economic Data Docket: Traders are also keeping a watch on economic data, including a U.S. payrolls report expected on Friday, and company commentaries for signs of peaking inflation and cooling economic growth, as regular trading commenced after a long weekend and with the earnings season around the corner. Investors are now waiting for minutes from the Fed's meeting in June on Wednesday as they brace for another 75-basis-point rate hike at the end of the month. <Reuters>
· The Fed's key gauge for tracking U.S. economic activity currently estimates that GDP (gross domestic product) shrank in Q2 even more than Q1, increasing concerns that the country may already be in a recession.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “where is our share pricing dependence trapped? Between recession fears and inflation worries” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12500
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Tuesday opened positive at 19 up/ 15 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 29/5 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 32/3.
- Monday was a market holiday
- Friday opened positive at 28 up/ 5 down and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 22/12 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 26/8 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <SELL into Strength: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.80), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.70), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.32), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.76), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.48), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.21)> 1 MISS < 1 Puff/Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG -$0.32 with 496 shares traded)>
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 15 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with MODERATE volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday was a market holiday
- Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.20% and the XBI was up +5.81%
- Monday was a market holiday
- Friday, the IBB was up +2.16% and the XBI was up +3.06%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was up +0.01 points or +0.04% at 27.54
- Market was a market holiday
- Friday was down -2.02 points or -7.04% at 26.69
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of cc):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$9.17),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6.81)
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.70),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$3.96),
- Alnylam Pharmaceutical (ALNY +$2.48),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.96),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.94),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.72),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$1.66),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.48),
Closing down (3 of 3):
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.21),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.05),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.02),
- Tuesday closed positive with 32 incliner and 3 decliners
- Monday was a holiday
- Friday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I took a contrarian view of this (today’s) upside … that’s two (2) positive closes.
Yet again, cell and gene therapy equity investors remain closely attuned to a SURGE in PRICING with ALGORITHMIC and ELECTRONIC SUPPORT after a deceleration of share pricing with inflation continuing to run at multi-decade highs.
For investors; can you TRUST sessions that dramatically appreciate?
With quarterly corporate earnings season set to be released in the next few weeks, the focus will soon shift to how companies have been “dimed” (i.e., +22% to +0.73%) after navigating persistent conviction issues alongside softening sentiment.
As we proceed to Q2 reporting in weeks, will consensus estimate for 2022 remain unchanged, even though stock prices have declined considerably?
Cash positions and “runways” along with trial status will be paramount factors in earnings reporting
Something I disdain and infrequently write about are … Price Targets … they have gotten so bad and inflated yet have NOT been reset.
Also, many i.e., most cell and gene therapy companies have NOT reset their internal stock award plans – so another disenfranchised investor (and employees) have their ire elevated as loyalty drains their capacity to be loyal and waiting for the next headhunter call.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying.
Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.
However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
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Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.